Analysis: Egypt, the U.S. Scenario

Has the U.S. given up on Hosni Mubarak? “Egypt is not Tunisia,” it was being said early last week when youth from Cairo to Suez to Alexandria began to take to the streets. Yet, like Ben Ali of Tunisia before him, the days of President Hosni Mubarak seem numbered one week after the start of the popular uprising in Egypt. And it’s the United States, a longtime ally, that may have delivered the coup de grace. “Words alone are not enough,” said Hillary Clinton on Jan. 30, asking the Egyptian president to ensure an orderly transition. Is she saying that he must leave his post to avoid chaos? That is Washington’s major concern.

With 80 million inhabitants, Egypt is the linchpin of American diplomacy in the Middle East and the first country to sign a peace accord with Israel over 30 years ago. The U.S. sends the country $2 billion in civil and military aid each year, and trains part of its army (500,000 men). The Egyptian chief of staff was at the Pentagon the day the demonstrations began.

Suleimane, the Favorite

Egypt is not Tunisia, although the youth who are demonstrating have the same demands: freedom, democracy and the end of both an oppressive regime and the electoral fraud that deprives them of hope for a better life. The Egyptian army has been the backbone of the regime since Gamal Abdel Nasser. Hosni Mubarak knows this and named General Omar Suleimane, head of intelligence services, to the vice-presidency, a position that he has, up until now, refused to fill. Since Nasser, the vice president has always succeeded the head of state.

Now Omar Suleimane, 75 years old, close to the Americans, leader of difficult missions such as inter-Palestinian negotiations and secret contacts with Israel, has been seen for many years by the U.S. as the best possible successor to Hosni Mubarak. The scenario Washington has concocted seems to have fallen into place. Will it succeed? Will Omar Suleimane be content to restore order, or will he be the one to lead Egypt to reform and democracy? It is unknown.