Why All the Bullishness in the US Stock Exchange?

Published in The People's Daily
(China) on 12 December 2013
by Yi Zhong Li (link to originallink to original)
Translated from by Chase Coulson. Edited by Gillian Palmer.
The U.S. stock exchange has recently hit new heights. The Dow Jones index just recently closed at nearly 16,000. The S&P 500 hit 1,808 points on Dec. 9, setting a record high. In November, the NASDAQ hit a 13-month high, marking an increase of 4,000 points. Contrasted with the aftermath of the 2008 global financial crisis, America’s basic economic growth has hovered around 2 percent. During this period of recovery, the U.S. stock exchange has continued going strong — so why such a bullish attitude?

First of all, the U.S. domestic economic base has stabilized. At present, growth rate data, employment data and real estate market data have all been showing signs that the U.S. economy has recovered. In addition, the Fed’s “quantitative easing” policy has been pumping liquidity into the market, compounding that with the recent flood of foreign investment returns leaves a considerable number of U.S. employers flush with cash. All of this has served to prop up the stock market.

Secondly, taken as a whole, U.S. listed companies are really darlings of the stock exchange. After the financial collapse in 2008, the U.S. economy sunk into a recession for the fiscal year. In 2009, it broke free of the downturn; thereafter, the U.S. domestic gross domestic product has increased by approximately 2 percent. In contrast, U.S. listed companies are doing considerably better. In the 2012 fiscal year, U.S. S&P 500 stock profits increased by 14.4 percent. According to estimates, when adjusting capital growth figures for the effects of inventory and depreciation, profits are up 31.2 percent. Just looking at the index of listed companies, the top 10 is almost entirely dominated by U.S. firms, the majority of which are on the cutting edge of current trends, setting the foundation for the market’s current rise.

Lastly, fine administrative structure allows these top companies to take proactive measures to ensure a return to the stockholders. Through systematic administrative planning, the majority of these U.S. companies’ corporate hierarchy, boards of directors and stockholders combine to form a profit-making body. These companies take active measures to ensure returns to their stockholders. Some pay cash bonuses; others, who have large cash reserves, choose to give shares. The S&P and Bloomberg News’s statistical analysis shows that in 2010 and 2011, American corporations paid out an approximate total of $708 billion in stock dividends. For example, from the 1970s to the end of 2012, IBM, a company that has been in operation for over 100 years and is a leading figure on the U.S. stock exchange, simultaneously increased bonus payouts — totaling only 1 to 2 percent in the 1950s and ‘60s, but 54 percent in 1978 — and maintained stock payouts, to the tune of more than $11.7 billion.

What’s worth pointing out is that, to a large degree, the prolonged boom of the U.S. stock exchange can be attributed to the 401(k) retirement fund plan that began in the 1980s. Under this plan, the funds purchased by these pension accounts provide the U.S. capital market with an unending supply of capital. One could say that with this money, the American stock exchange is permanently liquid, as if imbued by the flows of living waters running into it like a river. What’s more, long-term investors are constantly entering the market, creating a stabilizing effect amidst all the wild undulations. This is a prime factor that has allowed the U.S. stock market, even amid economic decline and recession, to continually remain bullish.


人民日报经济透视:美股牛气从何而来

尹中立

2013年12月12日08:20 来源:人民日报

美国股市近来屡创新高。道琼斯指数持续上涨到当前的16000点附近;标准普尔500指数12月9日涨至1808点,再创收盘新高;纳斯达克指数11 月底首次突破13年来高点,收于4000点。然与之相对应的是,2008年国际金融危机以来,美国经济增长基本徘徊在2%的低位。在脆弱的复苏态势下,美股持续走强,牛气从何而来?

首先,美国的内在经济基础稳健。目前,无论增长率、就业数据还是房地产市场的数据,都不断释放美国经济复苏的信号。另外,美联储的量化宽松政策持续向市场注入了大量流动性,加上近期海外资金不断回流,令很多美国企业坐拥大量现金,对股市起到了支撑作用。

其次,美国的上市公司盈利状况普遍良好。美国经济在危机爆发后的2008年一度陷入负增长,2009年虽摆脱衰退,但此后国内生产总值年增长一直在 2%左右。相比之下,上市公司的盈利状况好得多。2012财年,美国标普500指标股整体利润增幅为14.4%。根据机构测算,如考虑存货和折旧效应调整的资产增长,其利润增幅应高达31.2%。从全球上市公司最新市值排名看,前10强几乎都是美国的公司。众多引领时代潮流的公司,奠定了美国股市持续上升的基础。

  再次,良好的公司治理结构让上市公司积极采取措施回馈股东。通过一系列的公司治理结构设计,美国大多数上市公司的经理层、董事会及股东真正成了利益共同体,上市公司主动采取措施回馈股东,有些公司采取现金分红,另一些持有大量现金的公司则选择进行股票回购。标准普尔和彭博社的统计数据显示,2010年和2011年,美国公司总计回购了价值约7080亿美元的股票。以IBM为例(该公司有百年经营历史,在美国上市公司中有很强的代表性),20世纪70年 代至2012年底,IBM在增加现金红利(1978年的红利支付率为54%,而上世纪五六十年代红利支付率仅为1%至2%)的同时,持续回购股票的资金总额高达117亿美元。

  特别值得指出的是,美国股市的长期繁荣在很大程度上还受益于上世纪80年代实施的401K退休金计划。该计划下的养老金账户中多达数万亿美元的资金, 为美国资本市场提供了源源不断的资本供给。可以说,这些钱让美国的股市一直保持有活水注入,而长线投资者的不断入市,在市场波动中起到了稳定信心的作用。 这也是美国股市能在衰退和不景气的经济环境下持续走牛的重要因素。
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