Barack and Bill, Hillary Clinton’s Two Handicaps

“Hello Iowa, I’m back!” After announcing her candidacy on Sunday, Hillary Clinton began the marathon that could lead to the U.S. presidency in 2016, in the very place where she lost all hope in 2008. Although she had a 20 percent lead in the polls, she was beaten in the Iowa state caucus, which traditionally opens in January of the primary season, by a black Democratic senator from Illinois with little previous experience, with the name of Barack Obama.

Eight years later, Hillary is back in the race with a good chance of winning this time around. At least in the Democratic primary. Because none of the candidates so far declared or expected to run seems capable of matching her. Although, as The Economist has noted, American voters want a choice, not a coronation.

Yet, it would seem logical for a woman who has 25 years of political experience behind her, including eight years in the White House, eight in the Senate, and four in the State Department, and who prominently defends women’s rights in her country, to have all of this experience contribute to a majority vote. But strangely, this militant feminist could be brought down by two men. Not because they don’t share her ideas. But because the sponsorship of one and the almost intrusive presence of the other might be counter-productive for Hillary.

Carrying on the Legacy without Adhering to It

Suspected of wanting to play sponsor: incumbent president Barack Obama. Hasn’t he said, without even waiting for her candidacy to become official, Hillary Clinton “would be an excellent president”? This praise, the sincerity of which is uncertain given their conflicting relations, is quite simply a key asset for Republicans. According to recent polls, six out of 10 Americans want their future president to have different policies from those of Obama. As a Democrat trying for the first time in modern U.S. history to succeed a Democratic president, Hillary Clinton has a problem: She has to carry on the legacy, without adhering to it.

It is common knowledge that in foreign policy, the former secretary of state wants a more aggressive policy, be it in Afghanistan — where she lamented the president’s advance announcement of the departure date for American troops — or in Syria — where, like the militant leaders, she wanted America to arm and support the moderate rebellion against Bashar al-Assad. That might have prevented the development of al-Baghdadi’s caliphate. Not to mention the negotiations with Iran, where she has argued for greater firmness. And caution.

But if Hillary can distance herself from some of Obama’s policies, she can’t go overboard in criticizing them. If she does, she risks cutting off those who made the lawyer from Chicago who he is today. The ethnic vote, especially the black vote but also the Latino vote, can make a decisive impact in the election, if she manages to mobilize those votes like Obama did.

The Clinton Clan

The former New York senator must also shed the “Clinton and Co.” image that likely led to her failure in 2008. This image gave the impression of a family business, a Washington establishment success story, where Hillary was the manager, but Bill pulled the strings. At 68 years old, the former president continues to enjoy greater popularity than his wife: 56 percent compared to 44 percent for Hillary. His charisma is still intact, and his network for recruiting donors is too, and both are probably essential for the candidate. But he mustn’t give the impression of being in the driver’s seat, as he did in 2008, with multiple meetings that inevitably gave the impression of deja-vu and gave credence to the idea hammered home by Republicans that Hillary is a candidate of the past. Furthermore, in operations as well as in its ambiguous financing, Bill’s powerful foundation could become a fragility in the campaign of someone who is putting a priority on seducing the middle class.

That’s another reason why Hillary is putting her daughter Chelsea in the spotlight this time. At 34 years old, this young mother is — what a coincidence! — on the May cover of the U.S. version of Elle magazine. She is animated in her interview, stating that “in our country where everyone has their chance, that chance is not hampered by sex discrimination. A challenge,” she says, “that we can meet. By electing our first woman president.”* The Clinton media machine has definitely launched.

*Editor’s note: This quote, though accurately translated, could not be sourced.