A Half-Year Since Inauguration: No Sign of a Destination for the Superpower

Published in Kyoto Shimbun
(Japan) on 21 July 2017
by (link to originallink to original)
Translated from by Chris Hennessy. Edited by Helaine Schweitzer.
A half-year has passed since President Trump was inaugurated. He started off by declaring “Make America Great Again,” but upon reflection of recent politics in the United States, nothing comes to mind except mess and confusion.

Despite having gathered support in the election from among people who are upset with the status quo by making over-the-top statements, many of his campaign promises have not materialized because of the wall that is reality, and the status quo is now maintaining its current bleary-eyed course. On top of this, “Russiagate,” in which the Trump campaign team is suspected of having colluded with the Russian government in the presidential election, is causing increased distrust of the administration.

The approval rating for the president has fallen to 36 percent, according to polls conducted by The Washington Post and ABC News, and the disapproval rating is at 58 percent. It is said that this is the lowest approval rating for a president since World War II at the half-year mark. Administrations naturally stray off course sometimes, but the resources to bring support back are lacking, and already some think that this presidency is heading toward lame duck status.

Actually, repeal of former President Barack Obama’s health care law, known as “Obamacare,” which was the major policy goal, caused this administration to stray off course because of the infighting within the controlling Republican Party over the legislation. The promised Mexican wall, tax overhaul and infrastructure spending initiatives are nowhere in sight.

The only thing of note that the administration has done is to pull the United States out of the Paris climate agreement, a new framework for combatting climate change, and out of the Trans-Pacific Partnership. But in response to the United States propagating nativism and turning its back on the world, the world has begun moving toward a search for an “Americaless” global order. The Trump administration should really think about whether this turn toward isolation is really in the interests of the United States.

With respect to foreign and security policy as well, no one can deny it seems to be a hit-or-miss operation. Although during the campaign Trump promised to reduce U.S. military engagement abroad, he shoots off missiles at Syria as if on a whim. Just when you thought he was showing a more positive stance toward talks with North Korea leader Kim Jong Un, he suggests military action. His view toward China as well is not settled, it’s praise followed by criticism. This does nothing but confuses everyone.

How are we supposed to engage this Trump administration? Japan, which has had a tight-knit relationship with the United States from economics to security up to this point, is seriously calling into question the distance arising between both sides.

The United States, which for a long time has advocated globalism and liberalism, has transformed into an inward-looking society that focuses on protectionism, and you can bet it will place some steep demand for correction of the trade deficit on Japan. In the meantime, we must handle it as calmly as possible, while at the same time build stronger relations with other Asian and European countries.




トランプ米大統領の就任から半年が過ぎた。「米国を再び偉大にする」と宣言して出発したが、この間の米国政治を振り返れば、混迷と混乱しか思い浮かばない。
 選挙では、過激な主張で現状に不満を抱く層の支持を集めたものの、現実の壁に阻まれて多くの公約は実現せず、視界不良のまま漂流を続けているのが現状だろう。加えて昨年の大統領選にトランプ大統領の陣営とロシア政府が共謀して介入したとされる疑惑「ロシアゲート」が政権への不信を増幅させている。
 米紙ワシントン・ポストとABCテレビの世論調査では、大統領の支持率は36%まで下落し、不支持率は58%だった。就任後半年の支持率としては、戦後歴代大統領の中で最低という。政権の迷走ぶりをみれば当然とも言えるが、再浮上の材料は乏しく、既にレームダック化しているとの見方さえ出ている。
 実際、最重要政策に掲げた医療保険制度改革「オバマケア」の見直しは、与党共和党内の造反で迷走。メキシコ国境の壁建設や大規模減税、インフラへの巨額投資もめどがたたないままだ。
 実現したものといえば、地球温暖化対策の新枠組み「パリ協定」からの脱退表明や、環太平洋連携協定(TPP)の離脱ぐらいだが、自国第一主義を掲げて国際協調体制に背を向けたことで、世界では「米国抜き」の秩序を模索する動きが始まっている。こうした孤立化は真に米国の利益にかなうことなのか、トランプ政権はよく考えるべきだろう。
 外交・安全保障政策も、行き当たりばったりの感が否めない。
 選挙公約で海外への軍事的関与を減らすと言ったのに、思いつきのようにシリアへミサイル攻撃を仕掛ける。北朝鮮の金正恩・朝鮮労働党委員長との会談に前向きな姿勢を示したかと思えば、軍事行動を示唆する。中国に対しても持ち上げたり、批判したりと見方が定まらない。これでは混乱するばかりだ。
 このトランプ政権とどう向き合うか。これまで経済から安全保障まで米国との緊密な関係を築いてきた日本は、距離の取り方を厳しく問われる。
 長年にわたってグローバル化や自由化を主導してきた米国は、保護主義重視の内向き社会へと変質し、日本にも貿易赤字の是正など厳しい要求を突きつけてくるのは確実だ。アジアや欧州の国々と連携を強めながら、冷静に対処していくしかあるまい。
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