Five Exit Routes for Hillary Clinton
Published in Le Figaro
(France) on May 12, 2008
by Philippe Gelie (link to original)
(France) on May 12, 2008
by Philippe Gelie (link to original)
Translated from
by Sandra Stark.
Edited by .
The comic David Letterman sums up Hillary Clinton's position in the Democratic primaries thusly: "She has a comfortable lead in the state of denial." Even though the Senator from New York seems to be irremediably outdistanced by Barack Obama, she is continuing her campaign as though nothing is wrong. Right now, just a handful of options remain open to her, all of them looking like exit doors.
Perseverance. To battle to the end and play all her cards...that is the path that the candidate seems to have chosen. "The nomination is not yet decided," she pleads, since her rival did not reach the number of necessary delegates yet and there are still six more tries before June 3rd. Obama figures that the obstacle will be surmounted after the May 20th primaries in Kentucky and Oregon: "I believe that we will have enough arguments to say that we have won," predicts the Senator from Illinois.
But the fate of the disqualified delegates from Florida and Michigan (for not respecting the calendar) will only be considered on May 31st by arbitrators in the party. Clinton has promised to fight to have them seated at the convention, bringing the necessary majority from 2,024 to 2,209 delegates. Can the procedural battle last until the convention in late August? Terry McAuliffe, the president of the Clinton campaign, seems to exclude that possibility: "This affair will be settled after June 3rd," he says.
Isolation. To persevere brings risks to Hillary Clinton. The largest is to see influential party members turn away from her, adding humiliation to defeat. It has already started: for the first time, Barack Obama just topped her in the support of super delegates, the group who will arbitrate the duel. Following the example of George McGovern, Democratic ex-candidate in from 1972, some of them have already changed camps. If personalities like Al Gore, John Edwards, or Nancy Pelosi publicly take positions in favor of Obama, Clinton will be marginalized despite herself.
Bankruptcy. Almost as humiliating as abandonment, the lack of funds could push Clinton towards the exit. Her debts have risen to almost $30 million, of which $11.5 million were loaned to the campaign from her personal funds. The hole increased through the campaign in West Virginia. The Senator from Illinois has surpassed the candidate of the Democratic establishment by raising $240 million via the Internet.
Fusion. In the past few days, Hillary Clinton has lowered the tone of her attacks against Obama. Some see here an indication of her desire to be chosen for the Vice Presidency. For many Democrats, this would be a "dream ticket." The Republicans are betting on the sum of their weaknesses. Clinton claims not to be interested, which seems logical for a former First Lady who has already played a secondary role in the White House. But Obama has not closed the door; the two candidates could soon have a discussion of the subject, encompassing also a way to retire her debts.
Panache. If she wants to manage her exit, Hillary Clinton could pocket the victory promised to her in West Virginia or next week in Kentucky, and then announce her retirement. A way to leave with head held high, to work towards reconciliation in the Democratic party, and to manage her future.
Among all of these possible options, the least credible is that of a last-minute victory for Clinton. She can no longer count on an exterior event (revelation, incident, or monumental mistake by her adversary), which would bring nothing good for the face-off in November against John McCain.
Perseverance. To battle to the end and play all her cards...that is the path that the candidate seems to have chosen. "The nomination is not yet decided," she pleads, since her rival did not reach the number of necessary delegates yet and there are still six more tries before June 3rd. Obama figures that the obstacle will be surmounted after the May 20th primaries in Kentucky and Oregon: "I believe that we will have enough arguments to say that we have won," predicts the Senator from Illinois.
But the fate of the disqualified delegates from Florida and Michigan (for not respecting the calendar) will only be considered on May 31st by arbitrators in the party. Clinton has promised to fight to have them seated at the convention, bringing the necessary majority from 2,024 to 2,209 delegates. Can the procedural battle last until the convention in late August? Terry McAuliffe, the president of the Clinton campaign, seems to exclude that possibility: "This affair will be settled after June 3rd," he says.
Isolation. To persevere brings risks to Hillary Clinton. The largest is to see influential party members turn away from her, adding humiliation to defeat. It has already started: for the first time, Barack Obama just topped her in the support of super delegates, the group who will arbitrate the duel. Following the example of George McGovern, Democratic ex-candidate in from 1972, some of them have already changed camps. If personalities like Al Gore, John Edwards, or Nancy Pelosi publicly take positions in favor of Obama, Clinton will be marginalized despite herself.
Bankruptcy. Almost as humiliating as abandonment, the lack of funds could push Clinton towards the exit. Her debts have risen to almost $30 million, of which $11.5 million were loaned to the campaign from her personal funds. The hole increased through the campaign in West Virginia. The Senator from Illinois has surpassed the candidate of the Democratic establishment by raising $240 million via the Internet.
Fusion. In the past few days, Hillary Clinton has lowered the tone of her attacks against Obama. Some see here an indication of her desire to be chosen for the Vice Presidency. For many Democrats, this would be a "dream ticket." The Republicans are betting on the sum of their weaknesses. Clinton claims not to be interested, which seems logical for a former First Lady who has already played a secondary role in the White House. But Obama has not closed the door; the two candidates could soon have a discussion of the subject, encompassing also a way to retire her debts.
Panache. If she wants to manage her exit, Hillary Clinton could pocket the victory promised to her in West Virginia or next week in Kentucky, and then announce her retirement. A way to leave with head held high, to work towards reconciliation in the Democratic party, and to manage her future.
Among all of these possible options, the least credible is that of a last-minute victory for Clinton. She can no longer count on an exterior event (revelation, incident, or monumental mistake by her adversary), which would bring nothing good for the face-off in November against John McCain.