Virtual Stalemate between Barack Obama and John McCain in the last 4 U.S. National Polls
Published in El Tiempo
(Colombia) on June 5, 2008
by Sergio Gomez Maseri (link to original)
(Colombia) on June 5, 2008
by Sergio Gomez Maseri (link to original)
Translated from
by Sarah Mattice.
Edited by .
According to CNN, Obama has 47% and McCain 45%, and on average, 10% have not yet decided.
The polls-–CBS, Gallup, Pew, and Newsweek-–including those between May 21st and June 3rd, before Obama was assured of the democratic nomination.
Obama’s Running Mate
Members of the campaign said that Obama designated a commission of three people-–including the daughter of assassinated President John F. Kennedy, Caroline Kennedy-–in order to guide his search for a running mate.
Much can happen in the five months until the November 4th elections. However, there is no doubt that Obama will have to overcome at least five steep mountains in order to beat Republican John McCain.
Arriving Weakened
The last months of the run for the nomination were a virtual disaster. Obama beat Clinton in 10 of the 15 primaries from the 4th of March on, and in addition, won the popular vote.
Finally, it was a handful of super delegates that shifted the balance in his favor. But never in the modern history of American elections has a candidate taxed his rival to such a degree. In other words, Obama entered the final stretch of the contest representing only 50 percent of the democratic electorate.
Of course, he expected to receive support from the better part of the other 50 percent. But almost 40 percent of the 18 million voters who chose Hillary had said that they will vote for McCain or they will not vote. Obama ought to seduce them.
Reunifying the Party
Reunifying the party will be his principal task, and it won’t be an easy one, since the fierce battle raged after Hillary planted animosity between their followers.
“In normal conditions, Obama should now concentrate all of his energy on the contest with McCain. But he will have to dedicate the better part of his energy to healing the internal wounds caused by the contest with Hillary,” says analyst David Gergen.
And for that he needs Hillary. Much has been said about whether or not he will offer her the vice presidency (something she wants). But that would be a bad move in front of the electorate, who voted for “change.”
And even if they reconcile, as is hoped, there is no guarantee that Hillary’s supporters will support Obama if she is not on the ticket.
No Hold in Key Sectors
Obama’s great stronghold, besides the African-American vote, is his attractiveness to people under 30 and those with high levels of education. Almost 70 percent in these groups preferred him in the primaries.
But his largest problem is that he has not been successful with the American lower and middle class, particularly among whites and Latinos, and people with little higher education.
In the working class he is seen as a representative of the elite, who grew up and was educated in the world of Harvard and Colombia Universities, and who doesn’t understand their suffering. On average, more than 65 percent of this group leaned toward Hillary and now would be able to see in McCain, a war hero, someone closer to themselves.
Conquering Large States
Another challenge is that Obama won the nomination thanks to triumphs in states where the republicans are very strong and favored to win in the general election, but he lost in all the larger states. This is a problem he can correct if he offers Hillary the vice presidency, since she won in key states.
Race and Rumors
Besides those mentioned, Obama has another pair of problems: the color of his skin and the constant rumors about his Muslim inclination.
As historic as his selection as the democratic nominee is, is it not clear if the country as a whole is ready to elect an African American president. Pollster John Zogby, for example, believes that race will be a determining factor and forecasts that at least 10 percent of the electorate will make a decision based on it. If it is a tight election, just because of that he could lose the White House.
The theme of religion is equally complex. Obama has repeated ad nauseum that he is Christian and has more than 20 years of connection with Protestant churches to demonstrate it. But his name, Barack Hussein Obama, some false rumors and the measure of prevention still active, have nourished the idea that he is Muslim.
“In principal the problem of Obama,” says Zogby, “is that many people don’t know him, don’t know to hope for him. And because of this it’s probable that they will go for the one they are more sure of. In this case McCain.” But Obama has qualities such as his youth, unequaled charisma, and that he represents the “change” that the majority of the American public say they want.
And if he leans toward Hillary for the vice presidency, it would erase many of his negatives. But Obama has many steps to climb. Tuesday’s was just the first.
Obama Responds to John McCain
Tired of receiving blows from his republican rival over his supposed “weakness” on international issues, yesterday the democratic candidate responded, and strongly.
In a speech in Washington yesterday before an influential pro-Israel lobby, Barack Obama promised to “eliminate” the threat that Iran represents for Israel and said that Jerusalem ought to remain the capital of the Jewish state.
“There is no greater threat for Israel, for peace, and the stability of the region than Iran,” said Obama.
He added, “As president I will never yield when the security of Israel is in question.” He then promised to “isolate Hamas” until the Palestinian movement renounces terrorism and recognizes the state of Israel.
The polls-–CBS, Gallup, Pew, and Newsweek-–including those between May 21st and June 3rd, before Obama was assured of the democratic nomination.
Obama’s Running Mate
Members of the campaign said that Obama designated a commission of three people-–including the daughter of assassinated President John F. Kennedy, Caroline Kennedy-–in order to guide his search for a running mate.
Much can happen in the five months until the November 4th elections. However, there is no doubt that Obama will have to overcome at least five steep mountains in order to beat Republican John McCain.
Arriving Weakened
The last months of the run for the nomination were a virtual disaster. Obama beat Clinton in 10 of the 15 primaries from the 4th of March on, and in addition, won the popular vote.
Finally, it was a handful of super delegates that shifted the balance in his favor. But never in the modern history of American elections has a candidate taxed his rival to such a degree. In other words, Obama entered the final stretch of the contest representing only 50 percent of the democratic electorate.
Of course, he expected to receive support from the better part of the other 50 percent. But almost 40 percent of the 18 million voters who chose Hillary had said that they will vote for McCain or they will not vote. Obama ought to seduce them.
Reunifying the Party
Reunifying the party will be his principal task, and it won’t be an easy one, since the fierce battle raged after Hillary planted animosity between their followers.
“In normal conditions, Obama should now concentrate all of his energy on the contest with McCain. But he will have to dedicate the better part of his energy to healing the internal wounds caused by the contest with Hillary,” says analyst David Gergen.
And for that he needs Hillary. Much has been said about whether or not he will offer her the vice presidency (something she wants). But that would be a bad move in front of the electorate, who voted for “change.”
And even if they reconcile, as is hoped, there is no guarantee that Hillary’s supporters will support Obama if she is not on the ticket.
No Hold in Key Sectors
Obama’s great stronghold, besides the African-American vote, is his attractiveness to people under 30 and those with high levels of education. Almost 70 percent in these groups preferred him in the primaries.
But his largest problem is that he has not been successful with the American lower and middle class, particularly among whites and Latinos, and people with little higher education.
In the working class he is seen as a representative of the elite, who grew up and was educated in the world of Harvard and Colombia Universities, and who doesn’t understand their suffering. On average, more than 65 percent of this group leaned toward Hillary and now would be able to see in McCain, a war hero, someone closer to themselves.
Conquering Large States
Another challenge is that Obama won the nomination thanks to triumphs in states where the republicans are very strong and favored to win in the general election, but he lost in all the larger states. This is a problem he can correct if he offers Hillary the vice presidency, since she won in key states.
Race and Rumors
Besides those mentioned, Obama has another pair of problems: the color of his skin and the constant rumors about his Muslim inclination.
As historic as his selection as the democratic nominee is, is it not clear if the country as a whole is ready to elect an African American president. Pollster John Zogby, for example, believes that race will be a determining factor and forecasts that at least 10 percent of the electorate will make a decision based on it. If it is a tight election, just because of that he could lose the White House.
The theme of religion is equally complex. Obama has repeated ad nauseum that he is Christian and has more than 20 years of connection with Protestant churches to demonstrate it. But his name, Barack Hussein Obama, some false rumors and the measure of prevention still active, have nourished the idea that he is Muslim.
“In principal the problem of Obama,” says Zogby, “is that many people don’t know him, don’t know to hope for him. And because of this it’s probable that they will go for the one they are more sure of. In this case McCain.” But Obama has qualities such as his youth, unequaled charisma, and that he represents the “change” that the majority of the American public say they want.
And if he leans toward Hillary for the vice presidency, it would erase many of his negatives. But Obama has many steps to climb. Tuesday’s was just the first.
Obama Responds to John McCain
Tired of receiving blows from his republican rival over his supposed “weakness” on international issues, yesterday the democratic candidate responded, and strongly.
In a speech in Washington yesterday before an influential pro-Israel lobby, Barack Obama promised to “eliminate” the threat that Iran represents for Israel and said that Jerusalem ought to remain the capital of the Jewish state.
“There is no greater threat for Israel, for peace, and the stability of the region than Iran,” said Obama.
He added, “As president I will never yield when the security of Israel is in question.” He then promised to “isolate Hamas” until the Palestinian movement renounces terrorism and recognizes the state of Israel.