Iran: A Concerning Report
Published in Le Monde
(France) on June 29th, 2008
by Bruno Tertrais (link to original)
(France) on June 29th, 2008
by Bruno Tertrais (link to original)
Translated from
by Corinna Russell.
Edited by .
After several months wait, the publication of the American Intelligence Community’s report on the Iranian nuclear program is, dare we say, like a little bomb, the political and diplomatic effects of which are going to be significant. But the report is in fact far more concerning than it first seems.
Firstly, there are two bits of good news. The first is that the American Intelligence Community has shown its independence. Immediately saying that Iran’s military activities were stopped at the end of 2003 is not exactly going to please the hawks of the Bush administration, and in particular, Vice President Cheney. The second is that, in the opinion of American spies, the international pressure strategy is useful and working well, as it is thought that this pressure lead to the decision Iran made in 2003.
Unfortunately, the report does not stop there, and goes on to inform us of many concerning aspects. Several points are worth highlighting. First, the existence, since the 1980's, of a strictly military parallel program, has been confirmed for the first time. Second, no one knows if this program has been suspended or resumed. In fact, the report does not go into what happened to it after June 2007, and also says that two intelligence agencies have doubts that Iran has completely halted all activity with a military purpose.
Third, we learn, and it comes as a real surprise for all the experts on file, that Tehran is said to have imported military fissile material, and it is unknown what Iran has been able to do with this fissile material. Fourth, American specialists clearly inform us that Tehran wants to maintain at least a ‘nuclear option,’ in other words, it wants to keep open the possibility of making an atomic bomb at any time. Lastly, the American Intelligence Community has become more pessimistic regarding the amount of time that Iran would need to produce, in its own nuclear plants, enough highly enriched uranium to make a bomb. Although the Community initially mentioned the period 2010 – 2015, now it has not ruled out that this could happen in 2009.
The nuclear problem in Iran therefore remains unsolved, and all this should strengthen the position of the international community in its repeated demand for enrichment activities carried out by Tehran to be brought to an end. Because, even by admitting that Iran’s strictly military activities are still dormant, it is important to remember here that the ‘dual’ plants (those that can be used either for civilian or military purposes) continue to operate.
Indeed, the P1 centrifuges installed in the Natanz enrichment plant are growing in number, and starting to function successively. Not to mention that the mystery surrounding the more modern P2 centrifuges still exists – technology that Iran bought from Pakistan and is perhaps tested today in a secret plant.
But, paradoxically, the problem has suddenly become much more difficult to resolve, since the first political effect of the publication of the American report is to nullify the view toward new, unanimous sanctions by the Security Council. Since Tuesday evening, Russia and China have made it known that it is absolutely out of the question, in these conditions, to vote on a new UN resolution.
Thus, even though the American Intelligence Community tells us that international pressure has proven its effectiveness, since this pressure is said to have pushed Iran to suspend its military activities at the end of 2003, for a certain time at least, the consequence of the report being published is that it now makes it more difficult to continue this pressure. Without a doubt, Tehran must be delighted.
Firstly, there are two bits of good news. The first is that the American Intelligence Community has shown its independence. Immediately saying that Iran’s military activities were stopped at the end of 2003 is not exactly going to please the hawks of the Bush administration, and in particular, Vice President Cheney. The second is that, in the opinion of American spies, the international pressure strategy is useful and working well, as it is thought that this pressure lead to the decision Iran made in 2003.
Unfortunately, the report does not stop there, and goes on to inform us of many concerning aspects. Several points are worth highlighting. First, the existence, since the 1980's, of a strictly military parallel program, has been confirmed for the first time. Second, no one knows if this program has been suspended or resumed. In fact, the report does not go into what happened to it after June 2007, and also says that two intelligence agencies have doubts that Iran has completely halted all activity with a military purpose.
Third, we learn, and it comes as a real surprise for all the experts on file, that Tehran is said to have imported military fissile material, and it is unknown what Iran has been able to do with this fissile material. Fourth, American specialists clearly inform us that Tehran wants to maintain at least a ‘nuclear option,’ in other words, it wants to keep open the possibility of making an atomic bomb at any time. Lastly, the American Intelligence Community has become more pessimistic regarding the amount of time that Iran would need to produce, in its own nuclear plants, enough highly enriched uranium to make a bomb. Although the Community initially mentioned the period 2010 – 2015, now it has not ruled out that this could happen in 2009.
The nuclear problem in Iran therefore remains unsolved, and all this should strengthen the position of the international community in its repeated demand for enrichment activities carried out by Tehran to be brought to an end. Because, even by admitting that Iran’s strictly military activities are still dormant, it is important to remember here that the ‘dual’ plants (those that can be used either for civilian or military purposes) continue to operate.
Indeed, the P1 centrifuges installed in the Natanz enrichment plant are growing in number, and starting to function successively. Not to mention that the mystery surrounding the more modern P2 centrifuges still exists – technology that Iran bought from Pakistan and is perhaps tested today in a secret plant.
But, paradoxically, the problem has suddenly become much more difficult to resolve, since the first political effect of the publication of the American report is to nullify the view toward new, unanimous sanctions by the Security Council. Since Tuesday evening, Russia and China have made it known that it is absolutely out of the question, in these conditions, to vote on a new UN resolution.
Thus, even though the American Intelligence Community tells us that international pressure has proven its effectiveness, since this pressure is said to have pushed Iran to suspend its military activities at the end of 2003, for a certain time at least, the consequence of the report being published is that it now makes it more difficult to continue this pressure. Without a doubt, Tehran must be delighted.
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