Obama vs McCain: Nothing Is Sure, That’s for Sure
Published in Financieel Dagblad
(Netherlands) on 20 October 2008
by Hans van Baalen (link to
original)
The financial crisis, that hit the U.S. hard, and with it, Europe and the world, made every (apparent) certainty disappear from the race for the White House.
Neither Barack Obama, nor John McCain has a fitted answer ready for the crisis. Actually we cannot ask them, because no one, really no one in the financial world or in politics knows when the bottom of the stock market has been reached. No one can predict when the trust of the savers and investors will be restored. No one knows how the real economy will be affected by the financial crisis. No one knows which measures will be effective.
It therefore does not matter whether Obama or McCain has the magic potion available, but whether they exhibit the confidence that they can repair the markets. The Bush-Paulson plan that reserves an amount of $700 billion to take unsound loans and mortgages out of the market and that, in the final version - just like the EU emergency plan - guarantees the interbank loans and supports individual banks, obviously gained bipartisan support.
Trust does not get restored just as a result of on party-political quarreling. Obama put on a presidential pose and immediately, save for the details, embraced the plan. McCain hesitated and managed in the end to only convince a majority of the Republicans to support the amended savings plan proposed by their own Republican president. In short, no resolute performance.
McCain has not been able to position himself as the president who exudes confidence in the area of finance and the economy. Add to that the fact that the average American blames the financial crisis on the (lack of) action of president Bush, then the economy is the Achilles' heel of presidential candidate McCain. That still does not mean that the economy is the basis for a sure victory for presidential candidate Obama. The three debates between Obama and McCain were boring and mainly convinced their own supporters. Obama won points because of his bigger charisma, not because of his better answers. Actually, the debate between Joe Biden and Sarah Palin was the most fun debate. Biden won points here as well, but Palin kept her ground and charmed with her 'May I call you Joe?'.
To win on points, however, is not enough for a victory. Everything is still open because Obama needs to rely on his charisma, but does not impress on content. The charisma of Obama can fade very rapidly when the case of his radical minister where he went to church often or his ties with a converted terrorist rekindle again. Obama also remains vulnerable in the face of new rumors. With Obama the question remains: Who is he? Where does he come from? Where does he want to go? And who are his confidantes, with whom he will create the government? Is Obama in that respect the prisoner of Hilary and Bill Clinton, who know the Democratic Party through and through and have a proven network available to them.
The campaign enters its final phase now and will become dirtier and tougher than ever before. John McCain has a chance if Sarah Palin makes sure that the moral majority rise and vote for him, and if Obama eventually will continue to spread doubt outside of his hardcore supporters and if the workers supporting Hillary Clinton don't dare to vote for a black candidate. McCain needs to hope that the financial markets ease down in the coming two weeks and that Bush, Paulson and Fed president Bernanke get the credit for that, that he is able to launch a couple of lucky soundbites about safety and that Sarah Palin does not slip. It's the same for both candidates: they do not need their own strength, but the other's weakness. That already happened before. The race Kennedy vs Nixon in 1960 was decided in favor of Kennedy in the last second because Nixon came across weaker. It will get (and remain) tense.
Neither Barack Obama, nor John McCain has a fitted answer ready for the crisis. Actually we cannot ask them, because no one, really no one in the financial world or in politics knows when the bottom of the stock market has been reached. No one can predict when the trust of the savers and investors will be restored. No one knows how the real economy will be affected by the financial crisis. No one knows which measures will be effective.
It therefore does not matter whether Obama or McCain has the magic potion available, but whether they exhibit the confidence that they can repair the markets. The Bush-Paulson plan that reserves an amount of $700 billion to take unsound loans and mortgages out of the market and that, in the final version - just like the EU emergency plan - guarantees the interbank loans and supports individual banks, obviously gained bipartisan support.
Trust does not get restored just as a result of on party-political quarreling. Obama put on a presidential pose and immediately, save for the details, embraced the plan. McCain hesitated and managed in the end to only convince a majority of the Republicans to support the amended savings plan proposed by their own Republican president. In short, no resolute performance.
McCain has not been able to position himself as the president who exudes confidence in the area of finance and the economy. Add to that the fact that the average American blames the financial crisis on the (lack of) action of president Bush, then the economy is the Achilles' heel of presidential candidate McCain. That still does not mean that the economy is the basis for a sure victory for presidential candidate Obama. The three debates between Obama and McCain were boring and mainly convinced their own supporters. Obama won points because of his bigger charisma, not because of his better answers. Actually, the debate between Joe Biden and Sarah Palin was the most fun debate. Biden won points here as well, but Palin kept her ground and charmed with her 'May I call you Joe?'.
To win on points, however, is not enough for a victory. Everything is still open because Obama needs to rely on his charisma, but does not impress on content. The charisma of Obama can fade very rapidly when the case of his radical minister where he went to church often or his ties with a converted terrorist rekindle again. Obama also remains vulnerable in the face of new rumors. With Obama the question remains: Who is he? Where does he come from? Where does he want to go? And who are his confidantes, with whom he will create the government? Is Obama in that respect the prisoner of Hilary and Bill Clinton, who know the Democratic Party through and through and have a proven network available to them.
The campaign enters its final phase now and will become dirtier and tougher than ever before. John McCain has a chance if Sarah Palin makes sure that the moral majority rise and vote for him, and if Obama eventually will continue to spread doubt outside of his hardcore supporters and if the workers supporting Hillary Clinton don't dare to vote for a black candidate. McCain needs to hope that the financial markets ease down in the coming two weeks and that Bush, Paulson and Fed president Bernanke get the credit for that, that he is able to launch a couple of lucky soundbites about safety and that Sarah Palin does not slip. It's the same for both candidates: they do not need their own strength, but the other's weakness. That already happened before. The race Kennedy vs Nixon in 1960 was decided in favor of Kennedy in the last second because Nixon came across weaker. It will get (and remain) tense.