Hillary’s Influence on Sino-U.S. Relations?

As Obama’s nominated secretary of state, what Hillary Clinton needs to do is to carry out the president’s diplomatic ideology and not her own intentions. Her attitude towards China, whether she is a hawk or a dove, will not mean much in the Obama administration’s diplomatic strategies.

Soon after Hillary Clinton was formally nominated as Obama's secretary of state, two extremes were formed among Chinese communities regarding her influence on Sino-U.S. relations.

One side’s point of view is that Hillary Clinton should understand the China policies of her husband, Bill Clinton, when he was the president, as well as his efforts to maintain a good bilateral relationship. Moreover, many of Obama’s staff used to work for the Clinton administration. Therefore, it is very likely that the layout will stay the same as former President Clinton’s and Hillary’s work as secretary of state will be right on the track.

The other side, however, suggests that Hillary used to speak aggressively about China in Congress and during the election. She, in addition, has been trying to establish an image as a hawk. Her position as secretary of state will turn Bush’s cooperative style of policy on China into a rather stiff style. It will end up impacting the future of the Sino-U.S. relationship.

Objectively speaking, both sides have made a mistake. Hillary’s nomination will not exert any decisive impact toward the development of Sino-U.S. relations.

America’s political system is special. There is no minister of diplomacy. The president handles diplomatic issues and the secretary of state is the chief assistant and second most powerful person in the field. As Obama’s secretary of state, there is in fact no room for Hillary Clinton to apply her own theories of diplomacy. Her job is to assist the president, in this case Obama, to make sure his diplomatic ideology is well implemented. Whether she is a hawk or dove, it will consequently not mean much in the Obama administration’s diplomatic strategies.

One should notice that when Hillary Clinton made those aggressive comments regarding China, she did not do so as a senator but the Democratic Party’s possible presidential candidate. Her purpose was to please voters in certain electoral zones. She was not doing so for America’s national interest.

Hillary Clinton, Obama, George W. Bush, and Bill Clinton, all used to have tough attitudes toward China when they worked as state governors or senators. George W. Bush and Bill Clinton, for example, once they moved in the White House developed more pragmatic policies toward China. Obama’s few public views on China since he won the election and before his inauguration have all been careful. You don't want to jump the gun when you are not yet in the position.

Those who think that Hillary Clinton as the secretary of state will be advantageous to Sino-U.S. relations are seeing her as “Mrs. Clinton.” Those who do not still see her as “Senator Clinton.” Neither of them, however, reveal the real principles of “Secretary of State Clinton” on China.

It is worthwhile to remember that the Sino-U.S. relationship was hardly brought to discussion during the late election. A lot of discussions and comments came out after Hillary Clinton was nominated as secretary of state. Hardly any of these comments, however, were on how she is going to influence Sino-U.S. relations. Instead, Chinese communities were rather enthusiastic about it. The American government runs in a highly pragmatic way. Whether it is close or not close to China does not depend on a single leader’s will but the need of the top national strategies. In other words, it depends on how many mutual benefits there are between the two countries and what these benefits mean substantially to the U.S.

This actually reminds us: when it comes to relationships between countries we do not need to care too much about our personal relationship with foreign politicians and leaders or their personal opinions. What we need to pay attention to are the stakes between this country and China and China’s international status accordingly. The latter in particular is how the country’s policies really matter for China.

(Mr. Tao Duanfang is a scholar and is currently living in Canada.)