The U.S.'s Downgraded Superpower Status

Published in Creaders
(China) on 11 April 2009
by Ouyang Shanjia (link to originallink to original)
Translated from by Ming Li. Edited by Christie Chu.
General Electric and Berkshire Hathaway, two American symbols, both lost their 3A credit rating. China, the U.S.’s number one creditor, first asked the U.S. to guarantee the 10 billion dollar reserve assets Beijing invested in U.S. bonds, and then called for a new global currency to replace the dollar weeks later. All of this happened in March.

These latest events warn us that changes are coming faster and harder than what we or our statesmen expected. America’s 3A credit system and its status as a superpower are going down as fast as the U.S. economy.

President Obama recently admitted that the U.S. is not winning in Afghanistan, the most significant acknowledgement of the difficult reality. What message was Obama sending to the American people through this statement? “If you aren’t winning, you’re losing,” Milton Bearden, former CIA analyst, said recently.

The current global situation is proof that the U.S.’s superpower status is wearing out.

Pakistan, a nuclear nation, is splitting despite lots of aid and support from the U.S.

Analysts who are very familiar with Iraq have announced that Iran is the strategic winner in Bush’s Iraq War, even though Washington’s troop surge seems to be a big victory. The Iraq War has encouraged Iran greatly by cultivating a new regional superpower, and it seems that Iran may become a major architect of the new Iraq.

It is unfortunate that people have forgotten during Bush’s age of arrogance that it is the military, economic and moral forces that uphold American superiority. The Abu Ghraib scandal, America’s invasion of a sovereign country without provocation and the stupidity that allowed radical Muslims to describe the U.S. as the enemy of 1.5 billion Muslims have all sent the moral superiority the U.S. possessed before 2003 up in flames.

Washington’s uncritical support of Israel at the expense of the Palestinians is considered excessive hypocrisy by lots of countries. Therefore, the conflict between the U.S. and Islam might be irreversible. Muslims believe that Islam will never lose its moral high ground - and they will not give it up easily.

Even The National Interest, a politically conservative publication, acknowledged these problems. Robert Pape stated in the latest issue that “The self-inflicted wounds of the Iraq War, growing government debt, increasingly negative current-account balances and other internal economic weaknesses have cost the United States real power in today’s world of rapidly spreading knowledge and technology. If present trends continue, we will look back at the Bush administration years as the death knell for American hegemony."

Now the U.S. economy is suffering from a large-scale reduction, and it is time to get rid of this spiritual shackle of superpower heritage and accept a more peripheral agenda. This doesn’t mean isolationism or retreat. The U.S. still needs of a large amount of high-quality military forces, but they can only be used when it is affordable and there are national interests at stake. The Iraq War does not conform to these requirements.

The myth that the U.S. can afford to send forces and naval ships anywhere at any expense is still present in the American mindset. China has found a more flexible way to secure resources, however. The Washington Post reported that China was making huge purchases and locking in low prices on oil, minerals and other strategic global resources. It’s like making a big economic conquest without sending even a single soldier. In contrast, the U.S. efforts for oil look clumsy.

Iran also uses guerrillas in order to attain regional hegemony. Last year, Russia reminded other countries that it has “privileges” in its peripheral countries by invading Georgia. Superpowers are being replaced by regional hegemonies as the world is carved up into spheres of influence, which are easier to defend.

The U.S. should admit that war, like politics, is an art of possibility with some limitations. The Bush administration could not fulfill its commitment to democratize the Muslim Middle East.

Another unpleasant truth is that the model of Western democracy is not attractive to most of the Arab world. Democracy isn’t appealing in many other parts of the world either, such as in Russia and China.

It is time to lower our geopolitical sights and end this unrealistic holy war. We should not expect “them” to become like “us.”

The U.S. took a number of years to restore its moral authority after the Vietnam War, and this time, it might be even harder to do.


美国快速降级,中国不费一兵一卒

送交者: 欧阳山甲 2009年04月11日08:09:06 于 [天下论坛] 发送悄悄话


通用电器和伯克希尔哈撒韦(Berkshire Hathaway)这两个美国标志失去了3A信用评级。美国最大的债权人中国先是要求华盛顿保证北京近一万亿美元债券资产的安全,几周后呼吁用新的全球货币取代美元。这些是发生在3月份的事情。

  这些事件是最新的警告,世界的变化比我们或我们的政治家所承认的要快得多,深刻得多。美国自己的3A评级,它的超级大国地位,正和它的经济一样快速降级。

  奥巴马总统最近承认美国没有在阿富汗取胜,这是对令人烦躁不安的新现实的最明显的承认。这位总统在向美国人传达什么内容?前中情局阿富汗问题分析师比尔登(Milton Bearden)最近表示,“如果你没有在取胜,那你就是在输。”

  全球局势满是美国超级大国地位在磨损的证据。

  尽管美国投入大量援助和支持,拥有核武器的巴基斯坦却正在分裂。

  在伊拉克,尽管华盛顿的增兵战略似乎取得极好的胜利,但熟悉这个地区的分析家已经宣布,伊朗是布什发动对萨达姆战争的战略赢家。伊拉克战争极大地鼓舞了伊朗,培养了一个新的地区超级大国,如今伊朗似乎可能成为新伊拉克的主要建筑师。

  可悲的是,在布什时代的傲慢中,人们忘记了美国的优势在于军事,也在于道德和经济。阿布格莱布丑闻、美国入侵一个没有作出挑衅的主权国家,愚蠢地让激进穆斯林把美国描述成世界上15亿穆斯林的敌人,美国在2003年以前所拥有的道德优势化为灰烬。

  华盛顿不加批判地支持以色列,让巴勒斯坦人付出代价,在世界上很多地方看来,这是过分的伪善。因此,美国与伊斯兰的冲突路线可能是不可逆转的。穆斯林认为伊斯兰永远不会失去道德高地——而且他们不会为了西方的世俗主义轻易放弃它。

  甚至连《国家利益》这样的政治保守派刊物也承认出了问题。帕佩(Robert Pape)在最近一期上表示:“自找的伊拉克战争伤口,不断增长的政府债务,负数值越来越大的经常帐结余,以及其他经济弱点已经耗损美国在当今世界上的真实力量……如果目前的趋势继续下去,当我们回顾历史,布什当政的岁月就会被视为美国霸权的丧钟。”

  如今,美国经济正在经历大规模的裁减,是时候摆脱超级大国遗产这种精神桎梏,并接受更加外围的议程了。这并不意味着孤立主义或者退却。它仍然需要维持大量的优质军队,但只有在可以承担得起、体现美国国家利益的情况下才能使用这些军事力量。伊拉克战争不符合这些条件。

  认为美国的军队和军舰可以到任何地方去,可以付出任何代价的美国神话仍然挥之不去。不是的。现代中国人已经发现了更好的办法。《华盛顿邮报》报道说中国最近进行大量采购,趁低价锁定石油、矿产及其他战略资源的全球供应。这相当于重大的经济征服——而且不费一兵一卒。相反,美国获取石油的工作看上去很笨拙。

  伊朗也使用游击队代理人实现重要的地区霸权。俄罗斯去年入侵格鲁吉亚,提醒大家,它对它的外围拥有“特权利益”。昔日的超级大国们被地区霸权取代,全球正划分成各个更加容易防御的势力范围。

  美国需要承认,战争和政治一样,是可能性的艺术,而且两者都有其局限。布什政府没能兑现承诺,让穆斯林中东发生民主改造。

  还有一个令人不愉快的真相是:西方民主模式对阿拉伯世界的大多数地区没有吸引力。而且对于世界其他地区的大部分区域,例如俄罗斯和中国,民主不是一种有魅力的模式。

  是时候放低我们的地缘政治眼界,结束美国不切实际的圣战了。我们不应该期望“他们”想成为“我们”。

  在越战之后,美国经过若干年才恢复道德权威。这一次,要复元恐怕更艰难。
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