It’s Not a Deadend for the American Automobile Market

Published in China Daily
(China) on 28 May 2009
by Cai Hong (link to originallink to original)
Translated from by Crystal Jin. Edited by Robin Silberman.
According to Chrysler’s and General Motor’s reports, we can see that there still is a big dispute over the future of the American market. Chrysler reports: American people need 12 million to 13 million vehicles per year; General Motors reports: the automobile market will come back to life, and the annual need will be 16 million in about 5 years.

But Ted Haoquan Chu, director of global economic and industry analysis and the lead economist at General Motors, figures that it doesn’t mean that the automobile market will become as good as it was before the financial crisis, when the annual consumption was above 17 million cars.

He points out that in the near future - in about 5 years - it will be hard to reach such a high sales volume.
But he believes that the market will come back to life, and the reasons are bellow.

Firstly, the financial crisis didn’t change the basic structural requirement. If the price of gasoline in America rises as high as it in Europe, Japan and Hong Kong, then there will be a structural constraint on automobile consumption. Ted Haoquan Chu estimates that gasoline prices will rise gradually. If the global oil price rises to 140 dollars a barrel, in America it will be 4 dollars per gallon.

Ted Haoquan Chu’s analysis is based on the experience in 2007: if this is the case, people will buy small cars instead of big ones or trucks, but it will not suppress people’s wish to drive, though some people will choose buses instead. At any rate, society’s need for automobiles will not change.

Secondly, American government has decided to invest in infrastructure, though this doesn’t mean there are plans to build highly developed public transport as exists in Japan or London. Eighty percent of American citizens live in suburb areas, and do not travel by bus. As a result, they must have private vehicles.

In America, those who are over 16 years old are allowed to drive. There were 72 percent of Americans with driving licenses in 1960 - this amount reached 85 percent in 1980. The number is still growing, but slowly, which means that the American market’s need for cars is stable, and also means market saturation is an issue, Chu said.

Though America’s economy is suffering, since 86 percent of Americans drive, people’s need for cars is not decreasing. Three oil crises in the 70s and 80s, and two safety-related requirements raised the general cost of cars. Some people have predicted that the automobile industry would have disappeared, but automobile sales are still continuing. Furthermore, the technological revolution didn’t affect the American automobile industry.

The American government’s recovery plan is like a heart stimulant to the American economy. But this will not be a self-recovery, so Ted Haoquan Chu doesn’t expect that the automobile industry will return to the level it was at before the crisis.

Government aid to the automobile industry is just beginning, and there are still a lot of things for us to expect, he said confidently.

The automobile industry in America has not changed much. There will be about 12.5 million cars falling into disuse every year if the annual consumption is 17 million, and the growth rate of population in America is 2 million per year; and as those who are over 16 can drive, there will be 2 million more people who will drive their cars, so there will be a deficit of 3 million cars.

Some people gave up driving during this financial crisis. The renewal period of cars also became longer than before, thereby fueling another industry - automobile repairs and servicing.

Ted Haoquan Chu suggested that bigger vehicles’ prices should be raised to force American consumers to drive smaller cars. And he thought that the percentages of different vehicles would change in ten years, but that this would not affect the automobile industry’s sales. Most Americans would still prefer to live in the suburb areas, so they have to depend on cars, even if smaller ones.

As for the lessons learned from the American automobile industry, Ted Haoquan Chu said that the main reason for this crisis was the American government’s man-made stimulation of real estate consumption, which is basically a mistake in the government’s policies. Secondly, it’s because of trade protection. Americans want to gain back the center position in manufacturing, but Ted Haoquan Chu feels that Americans should look forward, not backward, which means that the way out is not to gain back that position, but to develop the fields of biological revolution and artificial intelligence, which is the key for the next leap for America.


美国汽车市场生机尚存,远没到穷途末路
2009-05-28 01:31

中国日报网中国在线消息:英文《中国日报》美国报道:对于美国市场的未来还有很大的争议。通用汽车和克莱斯勒两家公司提交的报告便显示了这一点。克莱斯勒的报告说,美国的汽车市场需求是每年1200-1300万辆,通用汽车则认为汽车市场还能够复苏,5年左右大概能够恢复到1600万辆左右。

但是, 通用汽车公司全球经济与产业分析部主任褚浩全认为,这并不意味着美国的汽车业能够恢复到危机前的状况。那个时候美国汽车销量达到1700万辆以上。

“在可预见的将来 —— 也就是5年之内吧 —— 要达到这么高的销量是比较难实现的,”褚浩全指出。

但是他相信这个市场还能够复苏,原因包括:

一、金融危机并没有对美国社会的结构性需求产生根本性的变化。如果美国的汽油价格调整到欧洲、日本和香港等地的高水平,那么会对汽车需求产生一种结构性的压抑。他估计油价还会慢慢上涨,假如全球油价上升到每桶140美元,那么美国的汽油价格可能会上涨到每加仑4美元。

褚浩全分析道:“如果这样的情况出现,依据2007年的经历,人们的汽车消费会从大车、卡车消费转移到小型轿车,但是并不会抑制人们的开车愿望。有些人会转向选择公共交通,但是整个社会对汽车的需求不会变化。”

二、美国政府决定加大对基础设施建设的投入,但是并没有计划要修建如日本、伦敦等城市那样的发达的公交系统。美国居民80%居住在郊区,这些人不能搭乘公共交通。因此,购买私人汽车是解决他们交通问题的唯一方式。

在美国十六岁以上的人都可以开车。十六岁以上人口中拥有驾驶执照者,在1960年是72%左右,之后一直缓慢增长,到1980年达到85%,此后这个数字的增长持续但是很平缓。“这说明美国市场对汽车的需求是稳定的,也可以说是饱和了,不会再上升,”褚浩全说。

美国有86%的人在开车。美国的经济经历过风风雨雨 ,但是人们对汽车的需求并没有减少。70年代、80年以及82年三次石油危机,两次政府对汽车安全性的要求,这些都无形增加了汽车的成本。英特网出现的时候,人们就在预测汽车业的消亡,但实际情况是,汽车的销售仍然在继续增长。此外,技术革命的出现也没有对美国的汽车业产生什么影响。

美国政府出台的经济复苏计划为美国经济打了一针强心针,但是这并不是自主复苏。因此褚浩全并不期待汽车市场会马上复苏到危机前的水平。

“政府救援的措施才刚刚开始,后面还有很多的东西,”这位通用的经济师对美国的汽车业充满了信心。

美国对汽车销售的本质没有变化。如果每年的汽车销售量为1700万辆,而每年淘汰汽车为1250万辆。也就是一年报废的汽车为1250万辆。美国人在十六岁后只要开得起车,就要开车。美国人口的年增长为200万人,所以美国开车人口每年净增加200万人。现在有300万辆车的缺口。

在经济危机中有些可以开车的人因经济拮据而放弃开车。汽车更新换代的周期也延长了,由此带动了另一个产业——汽车维修业。

褚浩全认为,现在应强迫美国消费者从开大车转移到开小一点的车,以提高大车的价格来人为地抑制住对大车的需求,“今后十年美国汽车的结构会产生变化,但是这一变化并不会影响到汽车销售的变化。”大多数美国人依然愿意居住在城郊,他们还是得依赖汽车,但是可以转为驾驶小型一些的汽车。

在谈到美国汽车业的经验教训时,褚浩全说美国政府人为地刺激房地产消费是造成经济危机的主因,这是一个基本国策失误。其次是贸易保护主义,美国民众声称要夺回制造业中心的地位,“而我认为制造业在美国是一个夕阳工业。应该向前看而非向后看。美国的振兴不是要夺回制造业的工作机会。”美国下一步向前走的领域是生物革命和人工智能,他指出这是美国下一个飞跃的关键所在。
This post appeared on the front page as a direct link to the original article with the above link .

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