View Obama’s “Leadership by Example” with Caution

Published in 21st Century News Group
(China) on 17 June 2009
by 张传杰 (link to originallink to original)
Translated from by Guangyong Liang. Edited by Alex Zhao.
Obama is putting a lot of effort into improving America’s relationship with the Muslim world. This was shown in Obama’s recent speech at Cairo. During the speech Obama talked about the Middle East in general, Iran’s nuclear program, the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan and the Israeli-Palestinian peace process.

Most of the Obama administration’s foreign policy strategies use “soft power” diplomacy. Echoing Secretary of State Hillary Clinton’s dedication towards America’s new diplomatic goals and approaches, Obama took a trip overseas almost immediately after taking office, which was refreshing to the people of the world. The biggest change has been a farewell to the Bush administration’s policy of “unilateralism” and a greater willingness to negotiate more with other countries that have moderate views. During the G-20 summit in London and the 60th NATO summit afterwards, Obama indicated that he will listen to the opinions of all countries. He also indicated that he would not make the same mistakes as the previous administration. During the Summit of the Americas, the most eye-catching moment was Obama’s interaction with an old rival of the last administration: Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez; on the issue of Cuba, Obama has indicated that he would loosen the embargo and engage in more dialogue. On the long-standing problem of Iran’s nuclear program, the Obama administration has also shown its flexible side, indicating that they want to be part of the diplomatic discussion. Additionally, whether it is through Clinton’s visit to Indonesia or Obama’s visit to Turkey, the new administration has frequently shown friendliness towards the Muslim world. All of these activities are intended to rebuild America’s international image and allow it to reoccupy the moral high ground.

Upon seeing Obama’s “apology tour,” I can’t help but to think of the movie “Fan Shi Yu,” in which there is a rich man called Lei Tiger. Because his family is rich he can get whatever he wants, and has done a lot of hurtful things to others. However, he is still anxious to save face and all day long he preaches “leadership by example.” He has the power to bully people, but he won’t admit to forcing people to do things with his power; he buys off people with money, but he always thinks that people do things for him because of his virtuous example instead of their own petty interests. Faced with Lei Tiger’s “leadership by example,” people might feel intimidated. Only stupid people would believe that they would be better off doing things that are against Lei Tiger’s wishes.

Relationships between countries are in some ways similar to relationships between people. Faced with the Obama administration’s “moral high ground” and “soft power” diplomacy, I don’t think any country believes in Obama’s “leadership by example.” At present, Europe, Latin America, the Middle East and Asia, areas that have come under Obama’s notice, are being cautiously optimistic: less optimistic, more cautious.

During last year’s presidential race, Obama repeatedly emphasized change. He wanted to draw a clear distinction between himself and the Bush administration, whether it was on domestic or foreign affairs. This insistence on change was important during the race so it must be reflected in his policies. Given this context, the use of “soft power” is a political move to show a difference from the last administration’s policies, using the following political logic: Bush’s policies must have been problematic and thus Obama’s policies must be different. Too bad we have yet to see any concrete changes except for some new political stances on his “apology tour.”

Flexible, moderate and multilateralism emphasizing “soft power” diplomacy does not exclude the usage of forceful and unilateral means to solve problems. It is also impossible for the Obama administration to exclude those means. Upon examination, no Democratic presidents since WWII have excluded using the military as a foreign policy tool. Truman used military means to deal with North Korea. Kennedy supplied Cuban exiles with weapons and supported military intervention against Vietnam. Johnson escalated that intervention into the Vietnam War. Clinton launched military attacks against the former Yugoslavia. Carter, who is considered a pacifist, recklessly chose the use of force to rescue American hostages during the Iran hostage crisis. In American politics, the Democratic Party had always been labeled as “weak” when it came to national security. To compensate, Democratic presidents have been more likely to use military force to solve international problems. Specifically, former Democratic President Clinton went around the United Nations when he attacked the former Yugoslavia. When multilateralism is an obstacle to American foreign policies, Democratic presidents will abandon it without hesitation. Because many members of Obama’s foreign policy staff were part of former President Clinton’s staff, Lei Tiger’s “leadership by example” will likely be watered down.

A number of domestic experts believe that Obama’s “soft power” diplomacy signals a weaker America. This opinion is reasonable. Some people mention that the power of the U.S. is declining so its hegemony must be weaker too. I think the relative power of the U.S. has not declined. The American military has not shrunk. Obama’s troop increase in Afghanistan is proof. Faced with an economic crisis and global terrorism, the American government has only limited resources and will focus on one problem more than the other. When the U.S. recovers from this economic crisis, I am afraid that the saying “leadership by example” will be watered down again.


奥巴马非常注意改善与伊斯兰世界的关系,这一点近日在奥巴马在埃及开罗发表的演讲中又有体现。在此次演讲中奥巴马谈到了中东问题,伊朗核问题,伊拉克和阿富汗的局势问题,中东进程问题等。
谈 论奥巴马政府对外政策的最多话题就是“巧实力”外交。正如希拉里对美国新外交目标和方式的定性,奥巴马在上任后也开始了全球之旅,让人耳目一新。最突出的 特点便是要告别小布什政府的“单边主义”做法,更多地与其他国家商议,采取缓和的姿态。在伦敦的G20峰会与随后的北约成立60周年峰会上,奥巴马总统以 低姿态表示要聆听盟国的声音,并表示不会再犯前一任小布什政府的错误。在美洲国家组织峰会上,最吸引人眼球的莫过于奥巴马总统与美国的老对手委内瑞拉总统 的赠书互动;在古巴问题上,奥巴马也表示将放宽政策,加强接触。对于老大难的伊朗问题,奥巴马政府也表现出灵活的一面,表示愿意加入磋商机制。此外,无论 是希拉里访问印度尼西亚还是奥巴马访问土耳其,新一届政府都频频向伊斯兰世界表示美国无意成为伊斯兰世界的敌人。凡此种种,皆意在重塑美国在国际上的形象,占领道义的高地。
看 到奥巴马的“道歉之旅”,我不禁想到曾经看过的一部电影《方世玉》,电影内有一土财主雷老虎。此人家境殷实,在当地要钱有钱,要人有人,估计欺压百姓的事 可能或多或少也做过。不过雷老虎还是很要面子的主,成天唠叨的就是要“以德服人”。他有欺霸的能力,可嘴上绝不承认是用强权逼迫别人做事;他有收买别人的 金钱,但心里总是认为别人为他做事是受了他这个道德榜样的启发,而非为了那点小利。面对雷老虎的“以德服人”,恐怕众乡亲的感受并不一定舒服,只有傻子才 会相信做了违背雷老虎意愿的事会尝到甜头。
国家间的关系从某种意义上说非常神似人与人之间的关系。面对奥巴马政府的“占领道德制高点”的“巧实力”外交,我想也没有哪个国家会真相信奥巴马政府要“以德服人”。目前来看,欧洲、拉美、中东、亚洲的这些被奥巴马提及的国家仍然是抱着乐观的谨慎,乐观为少,谨慎为多。
奥 巴马在去年参加总统大选时,反复强调的一个主题就是变革,他要与前一届的小布什政府彻彻底底地划清界限,内政上如此,外交上更要如此。这个基调既然在大选 时已经确定,那么当选后无论如何是要体现在政策上的。在这个政治背景下,“巧实力”外交政策的抛出,更多是处于政治上的考虑,要突出与上一届布什政府外交 政策的不同,遵循以下的政治逻辑:小布什的政策一定有问题,奥巴马的政策一定要有所不同。但是很可惜,除了“道歉之旅”中一些政治姿态外,目前还并没有看 出奥巴马在外交上有什么具体的新政策出台。
其次,灵活、缓和、强调多边主义的“巧实力”外交并没有排除使用强硬的、单边的手段来解决问题,这也是奥巴马政府不可能排除的。纵观二战以后的民主 党总统,并没有谁刻意排斥武力作为对外政策工具,杜鲁门采用军事手段应对朝鲜局势,肯尼迪策动古巴流亡武装力量登陆古巴、支持军事干预越南,约翰逊将军事 干预升级为越南战争,克林顿针对前南斯拉夫发动军事打击,向来被认为是个和平主义者的卡特,在伊朗人质事件中也贸然地选择了武力营救美国人质。美国政治传 统中,民主党在国家安全问题上向来会被贴上“软弱”的标签,为避免这样的政治压力,民主党总统更有可能使用军事打击手段来解决国际问 题。特别要强调的是,奥巴马之前的民主党总统克林顿在军事打击南斯拉夫问题上也是绕开了联合国的,当多边主义成为美国对外政策的妨碍时,民主党总统也会毫 不犹豫地将其抛开。联想到目前奥巴马的对外政策班底有不少是克林顿政府内的人士,雷老虎的“以德服人”可能是要大打折扣的。
现在有不少国内 专家认为奥巴马的“软实力”外交可能是一种美国战略收缩的表现,这个观点是有道理的。一些人提到美国的实力在衰退,霸权的触角不得不收缩。我觉得美国的相 对实力其实并没有衰退,其全球军事打击力量也没有消减,奥巴马在阿富汗增加部队即是明证。只是面临经济危机和全球反恐这两大棘手的事情,资源的腾挪出现了 一些问题,政府也不会向以前一样能够集中于某一个问题上。待到美国从这次经济危机中恢复出来后,那句“以德服人”恐怕又要再打点折扣了。
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