The Strengths and Weaknesses of Barack Obama’s Popularity
Economic and social policies have begun to weigh on the popularity of Barack Obama, as they passed under the threshold of 60 percent at the beginning of the summer.
The victory of Barack Obama in the presidential election on November 4, 2008, was marked by a popular infatuation that the Democratic party has not known for several decades. With 53 percent of the votes, the popular current in favor of the Democratic candidate has mobilized groups who, until now, were often absent from the polls: youths, Blacks, and Americans of Hispanic origin.
After entering into office at the White House on January 20, 2009, the new president maintained a high level of popularity (see Figure 1), but the first signs of erosion have begun to show, particularly on the economic and social terrain. After July 2009, his popularity, as measured regularly by the Gallup Institute, fell below the barrier of 60 percent. By the end of January 2009, he lost 15 points. The decline was particularly significant after the month of July.
Initially, Barack Obama knew how to achieve very high levels of popularity that his Democratic predecessor, Bill Clinton, never knew. Seven months after coming to power, his presidential popularity is at 56 percent, 12 points ahead of Bill Clinton, but at about the same level George W. Bush reached in the summer of 2001 and below the popularity registered by George H. W. Bush, Ronald Reagan or even Jimmy Carter (see Figure 2).
However, we must recognize that times have changed, and the economic and financial crisis is badly affecting the American society, eroding its capacity for enthusiasm for politics. In spite of this tumultuous context, President Obama enjoys a decidedly immense popularity.
We find in this high popularity the characteristics of his electoral victory in 2008; record support among youth (64 percent job approval among youth between 18 and 24 years, versus 48 percent among those over 65), ethnic minorities (76 percent of non-Whites, compared to 46 percent of Whites) and middle-class Americans (64 percent among Americans whose monthly revenue is less than $2,000, compared to 50 percent of those who have an income larger than $7,500).
The American Society is Still Worried
If this popularity does not decline, Barack Obama will perhaps be able to enter the club of popular American presidents (like Lyndon Johnson, Ronald Reagan and George H.W. Bush), but without reaching the stars of popularity that Dwight Eisenhower and John Kennedy were in their time. Rather, even if the popularity of Barack Obama is elevated, contrary to what we often hear in France, it is not exceptional with regard to the history of popularity of the twelve North American presidents elected post-war (see Figure 3).
At the same time, the popularity of President Obama is rooted in his rupture with George W. Bush, who, at the end of his term, reached new levels of disapproval (only 27 percent were positive evaluations in November 2008). In this respect, Barack Obama is the "anti-Bush."
But his popularity cannot be due only to this popular rejection of the departing president. There is also the impact of Obama's style, made of firmness, vision and proximity to his fellow citizens. While his overall popularity has declined, he maintained a very strong personal and political image that reinforced his charismatic dimension even in July of 2009. 67 percent of Americans think he is a "strong leader and capable of making decisions," 66 percent think he understands "the problems that Americans are faced with in their daily lives" and 59 percent believe he can "lead the government with efficiency."
Barack Obama knew how to restore American confidence in the institution of the presidency (a mere 25 percent in 2007, but 51 percent in 2009), even as confidence in banks has collapsed (41 percent in 2007, 22 percent in 2009). But, overall, the level of confidence in political institutions remains weak: 17 percent for Congress, 28 percent for the Department of Justice and 39 percent for the Supreme Court. American society is still worried, and sometimes very worried.
In December 2008, only 10 percent of Americans declared that they were satisfied with "the way things were going in the United States." The decline has been vertiginous since the beginning of 2000; 70 percent were satisfied in December 2001, 50 percent in 2003, 45 percent in December 2004, 36 percent in December 2005, 30 percent in December 2006 and 27 percent in December 2007. The measurement for December 2009 will be decisive for the destiny of Obama's popularity ratings and we will see if his presidential actions successfully invert the continually growing curve of dissatisfaction among American citizens since the Bush era. Until then, we will not be able to judge whether or not Barack Obama will enter into the pantheon of the most popular presidents.
Everything will depend on the capacity of the current president to inscribe his presidency in the line of great "transformation presidencies" the United States has known in the past. In his study of political leadership (Leadership Harper and Raw, New York, 1978), James MacGregor Burns was the first to introduce the notion of transformational leadership, or leadership that creates a significant change in the lives of people and organizations, redefines perceptions and values, and changes the expectations and aspirations of those who follow the leader. This type of leadership recalls the figure of the "presidency of reconstruction" described by political scientist Stephen Skowronek in his remarkable work "The Politics Presidents Make: Leadership from John Adams to George Bush" (The Belknap Press of Harvard University Press 1993). He associated this type of leadership with Abraham Lincoln and Franklin Delano Roosevelt. The "reconstructor" president is the one who creates a "new regime."
The End of the Era Begun by Reagan
The New Beginning of Reagan, like the New Deal of Roosevelt, put new regimes in place in the way Joseph Skrowronek described. What about the presidency of Obama? Douglas Brinkley, history professor at Rice University and biographer of numerous American presidents, says he believes the election of Obama marked the end of the era Reagan opened. "The age of Reagan lasted from 1980 to 2008. We are now in the age of Obama... There is a new progressivism. Even during the eight years of Bill Clinton, he was hostage to Republican politicians. He was an integral part of the Reagan era. Today there is a new era, the most progressive era in political policy since 1964 with Lyndon Johnson."
For the moment, the transformational leader seems to carry conviction on the grounds of foreign policy and terrorism, but the resistance of the old era is stronger on economic and social policy. Since the beginning of the summer, Obama's difficulties have been accentuated and the reproaches are beginning to spurt forth, particularly on the economic grounds of the efficiency of the recovery plan, help given to General Motors, the cost of public spending, and on the social terrain of reform of the health system and social security.
Even though Barack Obama has convinced a rather large majority of Americans in the areas of foreign affairs, the situation in Iraq, the situation in Afghanistan and even on the issue of terrorism, since the beginning of the summer, he has been in the minority on economic and social affairs. 55 percent of people questioned disapprove of the federal budget, 50 percent of health care policies and 49 percent of the management of the economy more broadly. On this last point, disapproval has risen by 19 points since the beginning of February.
The Economy; A Priority for Americans
The "core" of foreign policy - the image of the United States abroad and personal qualities - remains unchanged, but clouds are developing on the horizon of the economic landscape, which, in the eyes of American citizens, remains the decisive battleground where the political victories and defeats of tomorrow will be made.
In July, 69 percent of Americans thought the economy in general was the most important problem confronting the country today, 38 percent felt it was unemployment, 19 percent the lack of money and 16 percent the health care system. In the summer of 2008, before the onset of the economic and financial crisis, only 20 to 30 percent of those surveyed mentioned the economy. It is on the economy that Barack Obama imposed himself a year ago, and it is on economic and social grounds that he faces his first difficulties. His popularity, though still very real, can be tarnished, and his ambitions for a "transformational" presidency will find the most obstacles in those areas.
The victory of Barack Obama in the presidential election on November 4, 2008, was marked by a popular infatuation that the Democratic party has not known for several decades. With 53 percent of the votes, the popular current in favor of the Democratic candidate has mobilized groups who, until now, were often absent from the polls: youths, Blacks, and Americans of Hispanic origin.
After entering into office at the White House on January 20, 2009, the new president maintained a high level of popularity (see Figure 1), but the first signs of erosion have begun to show, particularly on the economic and social terrain. After July 2009, his popularity, as measured regularly by the Gallup Institute, fell below the barrier of 60 percent. By the end of January 2009, he lost 15 points. The decline was particularly significant after the month of July.
Initially, Barack Obama knew how to achieve very high levels of popularity that his Democratic predecessor, Bill Clinton, never knew. Seven months after coming to power, his presidential popularity is at 56 percent, 12 points ahead of Bill Clinton, but at about the same level George W. Bush reached in the summer of 2001 and below the popularity registered by George H. W. Bush, Ronald Reagan or even Jimmy Carter (see Figure 2).
However, we must recognize that times have changed, and the economic and financial crisis is badly affecting the American society, eroding its capacity for enthusiasm for politics. In spite of this tumultuous context, President Obama enjoys a decidedly immense popularity.
We find in this high popularity the characteristics of his electoral victory in 2008; record support among youth (64 percent job approval among youth between 18 and 24 years, versus 48 percent among those over 65), ethnic minorities (76 percent of non-Whites, compared to 46 percent of Whites) and middle-class Americans (64 percent among Americans whose monthly revenue is less than $2,000, compared to 50 percent of those who have an income larger than $7,500).
The American Society is Still Worried
If this popularity does not decline, Barack Obama will perhaps be able to enter the club of popular American presidents (like Lyndon Johnson, Ronald Reagan and George H.W. Bush), but without reaching the stars of popularity that Dwight Eisenhower and John Kennedy were in their time. Rather, even if the popularity of Barack Obama is elevated, contrary to what we often hear in France, it is not exceptional with regard to the history of popularity of the twelve North American presidents elected post-war (see Figure 3).
At the same time, the popularity of President Obama is rooted in his rupture with George W. Bush, who, at the end of his term, reached new levels of disapproval (only 27 percent were positive evaluations in November 2008). In this respect, Barack Obama is the "anti-Bush."
But his popularity cannot be due only to this popular rejection of the departing president. There is also the impact of Obama's style, made of firmness, vision and proximity to his fellow citizens. While his overall popularity has declined, he maintained a very strong personal and political image that reinforced his charismatic dimension even in July of 2009. 67 percent of Americans think he is a "strong leader and capable of making decisions," 66 percent think he understands "the problems that Americans are faced with in their daily lives" and 59 percent believe he can "lead the government with efficiency."
Barack Obama knew how to restore American confidence in the institution of the presidency (a mere 25 percent in 2007, but 51 percent in 2009), even as confidence in banks has collapsed (41 percent in 2007, 22 percent in 2009). But, overall, the level of confidence in political institutions remains weak: 17 percent for Congress, 28 percent for the Department of Justice and 39 percent for the Supreme Court. American society is still worried, and sometimes very worried.
In December 2008, only 10 percent of Americans declared that they were satisfied with "the way things were going in the United States." The decline has been vertiginous since the beginning of 2000; 70 percent were satisfied in December 2001, 50 percent in 2003, 45 percent in December 2004, 36 percent in December 2005, 30 percent in December 2006 and 27 percent in December 2007. The measurement for December 2009 will be decisive for the destiny of Obama's popularity ratings and we will see if his presidential actions successfully invert the continually growing curve of dissatisfaction among American citizens since the Bush era. Until then, we will not be able to judge whether or not Barack Obama will enter into the pantheon of the most popular presidents.
Everything will depend on the capacity of the current president to inscribe his presidency in the line of great "transformation presidencies" the United States has known in the past. In his study of political leadership (Leadership Harper and Raw, New York, 1978), James MacGregor Burns was the first to introduce the notion of transformational leadership, or leadership that creates a significant change in the lives of people and organizations, redefines perceptions and values, and changes the expectations and aspirations of those who follow the leader. This type of leadership recalls the figure of the "presidency of reconstruction" described by political scientist Stephen Skowronek in his remarkable work "The Politics Presidents Make: Leadership from John Adams to George Bush" (The Belknap Press of Harvard University Press 1993). He associated this type of leadership with Abraham Lincoln and Franklin Delano Roosevelt. The "reconstructor" president is the one who creates a "new regime."
The End of the Era Begun by Reagan
The New Beginning of Reagan, like the New Deal of Roosevelt, put new regimes in place in the way Joseph Skrowronek described. What about the presidency of Obama? Douglas Brinkley, history professor at Rice University and biographer of numerous American presidents, says he believes the election of Obama marked the end of the era Reagan opened. "The age of Reagan lasted from 1980 to 2008. We are now in the age of Obama... There is a new progressivism. Even during the eight years of Bill Clinton, he was hostage to Republican politicians. He was an integral part of the Reagan era. Today there is a new era, the most progressive era in political policy since 1964 with Lyndon Johnson."
For the moment, the transformational leader seems to carry conviction on the grounds of foreign policy and terrorism, but the resistance of the old era is stronger on economic and social policy. Since the beginning of the summer, Obama's difficulties have been accentuated and the reproaches are beginning to spurt forth, particularly on the economic grounds of the efficiency of the recovery plan, help given to General Motors, the cost of public spending, and on the social terrain of reform of the health system and social security.
Even though Barack Obama has convinced a rather large majority of Americans in the areas of foreign affairs, the situation in Iraq, the situation in Afghanistan and even on the issue of terrorism, since the beginning of the summer, he has been in the minority on economic and social affairs. 55 percent of people questioned disapprove of the federal budget, 50 percent of health care policies and 49 percent of the management of the economy more broadly. On this last point, disapproval has risen by 19 points since the beginning of February.
The Economy; A Priority for Americans
The "core" of foreign policy - the image of the United States abroad and personal qualities - remains unchanged, but clouds are developing on the horizon of the economic landscape, which, in the eyes of American citizens, remains the decisive battleground where the political victories and defeats of tomorrow will be made.
In July, 69 percent of Americans thought the economy in general was the most important problem confronting the country today, 38 percent felt it was unemployment, 19 percent the lack of money and 16 percent the health care system. In the summer of 2008, before the onset of the economic and financial crisis, only 20 to 30 percent of those surveyed mentioned the economy. It is on the economy that Barack Obama imposed himself a year ago, and it is on economic and social grounds that he faces his first difficulties. His popularity, though still very real, can be tarnished, and his ambitions for a "transformational" presidency will find the most obstacles in those areas.
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