Putting Obama’s Nuclear Policy to the Test

Published in The United Daily News
(Taiwan) on 11 October 2009
by (link to originallink to original)
Translated from by Anna Isaacson. Edited by Robin Silberman.
Obama’s Nobel Peace Prize flew in from outer space. Now the pressure is on. Many groups are now pressuring Obama to take substantial steps towards creating a nuclear-free world, so that the Peace Prize will not have been granted in vain.

It’s easier said than done. The former United Nations weapons inspector David Albright remarked, “It's a long-term goal and a long voyage over a pretty big ocean of nuclear disarmament,” adding that Obama is "trying to turn a big ship so it can become an important part of U.S. policy.”

In bestowing the award upon Obama, the Nobel committee emphasized that he has moved nuclear non-proliferation and disarmament to the top of the global agenda. Albright argues that at this point an important test for Obama is whether or not he can convince Congress to ratify the Comprehensive Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT) or the Fissile Material Cut-off Treaty (FMCT). But many worry that he can’t get the votes.

The Comprehensive Test-Ban Treaty came into being in 1996. One hundred and eighty-one nations have already signed onto the treaty, but only 149 have ratified it in their own countries. Because the United States is not among those 149, the treaty has been ineffective. FMCT hasn’t even moved beyond the negotiation stage.

During the two weeks prior to receiving the Nobel Peace Prize, Obama became the first American president to preside over discussions at the U.N. Security Council. At that time he spoke at length in an effort to encourage all nations to support nuclear nonproliferation. And this is more than just talk. He unilaterally renounced the Bush administration’s plans for constructing a missile defense shield in the Middle East, a policy that had brought fierce opposition from Russia. Instead, Obama wishes to sign a new nuclear nonproliferation treaty with Russia, a treaty to replace the Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (START) of 1991. The two nations will likely pass this new treaty in December of this year.

The Obama administration is thinking of using the Nobel Peace Prize as a bargaining chip in its negotiations with Iran and North Korea, in order to induce these nations to halt nuclear weapons production. If Obama cannot get the Comprehensive Test-Ban Treaty through Congress, it will make it that much harder for him to persuade the rest of the world to freeze nuclear weapons production. If he is unable to press Iran into halting production, the Middle East will find itself on the brink of a nuclear arms race. Egypt, Jordan, Saudi Arabia and Turkey have all suggested that if Iran has nuclear weapons, then they, too, will want to develop their own arsenals in self-protection.

This is enough to keep Obama busy for now. But, as he himself said upon receiving the award, the Nobel Peace Prize is a “call to action.”


和平獎/獎項加持? 考驗歐巴馬非核能耐
【聯合晚報╱編譯彭淮棟/綜合報導】
2009.10.11 04:09 am
天外飛來諾貝爾和平獎,歐巴馬實未至而名已歸,壓力上身,許多團體力促他邁開大步落實他追求的世界非核化目標,莫白擔了虛名。
此事談何容易。前聯合國核子武器檢查員歐布萊特說:「解除核武是一個長路漫漫的長程目標。」他認為歐巴馬「正在想辦法把一艘大船掉頭,把它變成美國政策的一個重要環節。」
在給獎褒詞裡,諾貝爾委員會強調歐巴馬致力使禁止核子擴散和裁減核武變成重要的全球議程。
歐布萊特說,歐巴馬這方面能耐如何,有個重要的考試是他能不能徵得國會批准〈全面禁止核試條約〉 (CTBT)或〈核分裂物減量條約〉 (FMCT),但不少人擔心他可能拉不到所需票數。
CTBT早在1996年誕生,已有181國簽字,但只有149個國會批准,美國不在其中,因此條約至今尚未生效。FMCT則根本還在協商。
得諾貝爾獎前兩周,歐巴馬成為第一個主持聯合國安理會會議的美國總統,他當時就慷慨陳詞,號召世界支持非核和裁武。
歐巴馬也不是空口無憑,他突然片面宣布取消布希政府說非做不可而俄國兇猛反對,在東歐部署飛彈攔截系統和雷達的計畫。
接下來,歐巴馬是希望和俄羅斯簽成一項新的裁減核武條約,取代1991年的〈戰略器裁減條約〉 (START),該約將在今年12月到期。
有了諾貝爾和平獎加持,歐巴馬政府有意把這個名氣轉化為對伊朗和北韓協商的籌碼,使據信積極製造核武的這兩國回心轉意。
歐巴馬如果不能教美國國會批准CTBT,要說服世界凍結核武計畫,難上加難。他要是勸不回伊朗,則中東核武競賽一觸即發,埃及、約旦、沙烏地阿拉伯、土耳其都已暗示,伊朗有核武,他們也要研發自保。
屆時夠歐巴馬忙的。不過,他得知自己得獎時不是說了嗎,此獎是「召喚我行動」。
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