Barack Obama, the president of United States, announced his administration’s strategy for the war in Afghanistan on December 1. The strategy contains three main directives. The first involves maintaining pressure on al-Qaida at Afghanistan’s border with Pakistan and in other parts of the world, while the second directive involves sending an additional 30,000 American soldiers to the Afghan battlefield.
The third directive is based on the success of the previous two. Assuming that they will install security for the Afghan people, this last directive consists of the development and training of an Afghan army. The Afghan army would then be granted responsibility for the security of the Afghan nation. This last step is highly connected to the retreat of American forces from Afghanistan, which, according to Obama and stated by Stratfor, should start in July 2011.
In order to really understand Obama’s strategy, it is necessary to realize that the mission of the additional American forces that will be sent to Afghanistan will not be to defeat the Taliban. The extra troops will be sent to improve control of the territory’s current situation, and consequently, create auspicious conditions for the Afghan army to take control of the Afghan state.
In his speech, Obama emphasized the differences in the strategies for Afghanistan and Vietnam. Under the “Vietnamization” strategy adopted by Richard Nixon, the annihilation of the North Vietnamese Army (NVA) was desired, as was the training and motivation of the Army of the Republic of Vietnam (ARVN) for its fight against the NVA. This was done in parallel with the retreat of American troops from the battlefields.
Nixon, at the time, was confronted with the same two problems that Obama has to overcome today. First, during the Vietnam War, the United States was not able to assure the security of South Vietnam indefinitely. Second, the Vietnamese had to ensure their own security.
The ARVN’s failure resulted from the same problems that could cause the U.S.’s failure in Afghanistan today: Taliban infiltration in the future Afghan army, in the same way that sympathizers and communist agents were able to infiltrate the ARVN.
The presence of communist agents inside the ARVN determined their access to the flow of information regarding ARVN’s strategic details, operations and tactics, which, though superior in size and weapons, lacked the element of surprise.
For this reason, Obama’s administration designed a strategy in Afghanistan that does not attempt to prevent Taliban infiltration of the Afghan army, but is meant to penetrate and destroy the Taliban faction from within. In this sense, it is essential for the U.S.’s success in Afghanistan to be able to infiltrate the Taliban's organization with Pakistan’s secret agents.
Only by appealing to the third actor, Pakistan, a territory in which the Taliban can take refuge and regroup, can the United States counterbalance the leakage of information from the Afghan army with elements that would make the Taliban’s plans extremely transparent and easy to combat.
Presedintele SUA Barack Obama a anuntat pe 1 decembrie strategia administratiei sale in ceea ce priveste Afganistanul. Aceasta cuprinde trei mari directii. Prima presupune mentinerea presiunii asupra al Qaida la granita Afganistanului cu Pakistanul si in alte colturi ale lumii, iar a doua consta in trimiterea a inca 30.000 de soldati americani in teatrul de lupta afgan.
A treia directie se bazeaza pe reusita primelor doua - care se presupune ca vor aduce mai multa securitate poporului afgan - si consta in formarea unei armate afgane catre care vor fi predate responsabilitatile privind securitatea. Acest ultim pas este strans legat de retragerea fortelor americane din Afganistan care va incepe, potrivit lui Obama, in iulie 2011, relateaza Stratfor .
In vederea intelegerii acestei strategii este necesar sa realizam ca misiunea fortelor americane suplimentare ce vor fi trimise in Afganistan nu este de a infrange definitiv talibanii. Ele sunt trimise pentru a spori controlul asupra situatiei din teren si a crea, prin urmare, conditiile prielnice in care fortele afgane vor putea prelua controlul asupra statului afgan.
In discursul sau, Obama a dorit sa accentueze diferentele dintre Afganistan si razboiul din Vietnam. Conform strategiei, numita "Vietnamizare", care a fost adoptata de Richard Nixon in cazul Vietnamului, se dorea anihilarea fortelor Armatei Nord Vietnameze (ANV), in paralel cu pregatirea, motivarea si insarcinarea Armatei Republicii Vietnam (ARV) de a lupta impotriva ANV, pe masura ce armata americana se retragea din teatrul de operatiuni.
Nixon s-a confruntat atunci cu aceleasi doua probleme pe care acum Obama trebuie sa le depaseasca. In primul rand atunci, la fel ca acum, Statele Unite nu puteau asigura securitatea Vietnamului de Sud pe termen indefinit, iar in al doilea rand, vietnamezii trebuiau sa isi asigure propria securitate.
Esecul Armatei Republicii Vietnam s-a datorat aceleasi probleme care ar putea cauza esecul SUA in Afganistan: infiltrarea talibanilor in viitoarea armata afgana, in felul in care simpatizantii si agentii comunisti au reusit sa intre in ARV.
Prezenta agentilor comunisti in interiorul ARV a determinat cunosterea de catre acestia a detaliilor strategice, operationale si tactice ale Armatei Republicii Vietnam, care desi era superioara numeric si prin forta de foc, ii lipsea elementul surpriza.
De aceea, strategia administratiei Obama in Afganistan nu este sa impiedice infiltrarea talibanilor in armata afgana, ci sa penetreze si sa distruga din interior factiunile talibane. In acest sens, este esential pentru succesul SUA in Afganistan, sa se reuseasca infiltrarea organizatiilor talibane cu agenti secreti ai Pakistanului.
Numai apeland la un al treilea actor, Pakistanul, pe teritoriul caruia talibanii se refugiaza pentru a se regrupa, SUA pot contrabalansa scurgerea de informatii din armata afgana cu elemente ce ar face din planurile insurgentilor teroristi unele extrem de transparente si usor de combatut, conchide Stratfor.
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Time will tell whether the strategic ambitions of the French-German alliance, including those regarding the European army, will jeopardize the EU's cohesiveness, and especially how much longer they can work together within NATO.