U.S.-China Relations: Who’s the Pawn?

Published in Zaobao
(Singapore) on 8 February 2010
by (link to originallink to original)
Translated from by Anna Isaacson. Edited by Alex Brewer.
In the past few days, the Chinese official media has fixated on the U.S. panda’s return to China and the Americans’ reluctance to part with the animal.

Many Chinese people believe that the panda is widely appreciated in the U.S. Thus, some even believe that Westerners also appreciate the ancient Chinese empire; whether this has any basis at all is difficult to say.

What is clear is that the official media has guided these sentiments.

In the eyes of the Chinese, the panda was formed through a slow evolutionary process into a treasured national symbol. As we consider the degree to which Americans appreciate this animal, we must consider the other factors at hand. Arms sales to Taiwan, the president’s proposed meeting with the Dalai Lama, trade and currency exchange debates, Google hacking and censorship issues; each of these questions is a time bomb heightening tensions in U.S.-China relations.

A façade of popular amity conceals the underlying tensions in the two countries’ diplomatic relations. This is all according to the Chinese official media’s designs. China meticulously separates cold political relations from warm popular relations. This strategy may well be China’s remedy for the cold it has contracted abroad in dealing with the U.S., as well as for the fever it has caught at home from calls for populism.

The Chinese government has responded to internal pressure with a series of small actions. The government puts these minor actions out in the open for all to observe and explore. It is unclear what the consequences of these will be.

We have reason to believe that while the economy continues to struggle back toward normalcy in 2010, the U.S. still needs cooperation from filthy-rich China. At the same time, China is still far from being on par with the U.S. in terms of military might and technological expertise. China must cooperate with the U.S. or, at the very least, tolerate it.

Thus, this author’s conclusion is that the U.S. and China are each others’ pawns. As the two nations attempt to resolve their disagreements, the potential for unexpected inflammation is high.

To return to the issue raised at the beginning of this essay, the experts say that Meilan the panda’s mixed reaction to its homecoming is typical for an animal that has withstood a long journey.

As China tries to make abnormal relations look normal through this “panda diplomacy,” Meilan is the true pawn; it’s she who is forced to eat the bitter fruit. Let’s hold off on populist celebration of this maneuver’s success, for whoever becomes the pawn will be the first forced to make sacrifices.


惯常的宣传伎俩故技重施,仍有中国人愿意相信大熊猫在美国是广受欢迎的。至于有没有中国人藉此感到了几分洋人对“天朝古国”的友善,是不是大大地意淫出了一把民族自豪感,笔者就不得而知了。
  但显然,这就是官方媒体的导向。
  抛却在生物进化过程中败下阵来逐渐式微的“国宝”在美国的受欢迎程度以及这与了解、认同“中国”直接关联程度的问题;我们看到另一边: 对台军售、会见达赖、贸易与汇率的口水战以及谷歌“被黑”衍生出的网络自由问题,一颗颗定时炸弹已经或即将把中美关系的紧绷程度拉到一个新的顶点。
  冰冷的政治现实,和温热的欢送画面之间,似乎是中国官方媒体精心筑起的一道堤坝,而“政冷民热”的刻意区隔,谁又保证不是北京对感冒的中美关系和发烧的中国民粹声音精心的呵护。
  可见基于北京的分析,华府近期的一系列“小动作”不过是面对国内政治压力迟来的“规定动作”,而倘若中国要为这些摆在明处可以互探政策底线的定时炸弹大动肝火也太不明智。
   我们有理由相信,在经济前景仍不明朗,环球金融海啸仍未退去的2010年,美国仍然需要元气未伤财大气粗的中国合作买单。而距离真正崛起成为世界强国仍“路漫漫其修远兮”的中国也需要美国这个既有秩序维护者的支持,或者至少是容忍。
   所以笔者的结论是,中美角力,互为棋子,擦枪走火的可能仍在,战略博弈的几率更高。
  而回到文章开头,昨天返国的大熊猫“美兰”在“祖国故乡”的新家第一晚发生应激反应,专家称这是大熊猫长途运输过程中的“正常”情况。
  当不正常“被正常”,看起来最后也只有“美兰”这颗小棋子为“熊猫外交”吞下苦果,独自买单。那么,激烈的民粹言论请暂停,谁做棋子冲锋陷阵往往更会率先牺牲。
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