Do Not Expect the U.S. to Relax Export Restrictions

Published in Huanqiu
(China) on 24 April 2010
by Guangming Wang (link to originallink to original)
Translated from by Meghan McGrath. Edited by Laura Berlinsky-Schine.
Barack Obama plans to reform the U.S. export control system. On April 20th, U.S. Defense Secretary Robert Gates said the U.S. should establish a sub-level export control system, easing export restrictions. Experts said that if the formal establishment of this reform better serves the security and economic interests of the United States, then the current Sino-U.S. trade imbalance is expected to improve. But it remains to be seen how much the harsh restrictions of technology exportation to China can be relaxed. (April 23rd, "Economic Information Daily")

The export restriction relaxation mentioned here mainly refers to the exportation of high-tech products. Some U.S. domestic observers may have high hopes of export controls being lessened, noting that if the United States were to relax export restrictions, bilateral exchanges and cooperation in the fields of science and technology, including space science, civil aviation and civil aviation technology, will be enhanced. In recent years, the United States has had a closed-off attitude toward high-tech cooperation, but this change could do both sides a good service.

In order to promote exports, Barack Obama is determined to change. The White House is currently conferring with dozens of officials from the United States Department of Defense Organization, Department of Commerce and State Department to build up a high-tech exports reform commission. The U.S. wants to expand exports because China is undoubtedly a huge market, but China’s import demand for high-tech products has to be taken into account. Exporting high-tech products to any country is hard because it is like opening a “forbidden area,” so the overall strategy of exportation of high-tech products to China must be controlled.

Analysts pointed out that although Obama is key to the reform of exportation, compared with previous expectations, the current reform road map to change U.S. exportation controls to China will be difficult. The current U.S. executive branch cannot change two restrictions on the export list; moving or modifying the list must go through all legal processes. Even if the executive branch can someday change the export restriction list, the U.S. export restrictions to China will be essentially unchanged.

The United States' revelation of the relaxation of the restrictions on technology exports is the only good gesture of the Obama administration’s position, and the road to change or cancel America’s technology export restrictions to China could be very long. In 2009, the U.S. Congress passed the “International Relations Authorization Act.” This act provides the U.S. president with the access to satellites and related components from munitions export control list, setting aside their power. But the bill specified that these special powers are not applicable toward China and other “exceptional country” exports.
  
It should be acknowledged that attempting to safeguard and consolidate one's place in society, as in the case of America defending itself and avoiding China and other emerging power’s challenge, is human nature; such an attitude is understandable. The problem is that America’s approach of waiting to evaluate the situation before reacting will in this case theoretically put off many lofty goals, and aim at curbing the rise of emerging powers of export control policies.

In fact, the U.S. government is well aware of all the issues involving export controls to China. Export control is a double-edged sword because limiting the flow of high-tech products to China also means that domestic manufacturers have huge losses in sales. While other NATO parties have gradually relaxed high-tech product exports to China, the U.S. share of exports to China has decreased year after year. In 2001, 18.3 percent of China’s imported high-tech products came from the United States. In 2008, this figure dropped to 6.3 percent.

If the United States relaxes export restrictions to China, and maintains a similar figure of 18.3 percent of China’s import market, high-tech exports to China could bring in $600 million to the United States. Since China is already a major high-tech products export market, China's telecommunication industry, computer industry and the semiconductor market have the potential to bring enormous business opportunities for U.S. companies. And in the next 15 years, companies could grow 20 to 40 percent.

In strengthening the technology export policy, the balance of economic interests and strategic interests must be taken into consideration. In comparing the control policy and the overall security strategy of the U.S. to China’s policies, it is not hard to find surprising consistencies. Export control itself is a part of both the U.S. national security and foreign policy strategy. After all, strengthening the exportation policy of technology to China will lead to the better implementation of a strategy to contain China.

In this sense, we do not expect the U.S. to relax controls on high-tech product exports to China. Now, even in the future to come, America’s view of China is becoming more vague: not a friend, not an enemy. The United States has not allowed China inside its circle, so high-tech export controls to China are certainly long-term. The CNOOC had this to say about their acquisition of Unocal: the Chinese just buy the oil, and the acquisition of oil fields mainly in Indonesia, not in the United States, it caused an uproar in the U.S. Congress. If the U.S. truly wants to move in the direction of exporting high-tech and cutting edge products to China, American politicians will not know how to succeed.


奥巴马政府计划对美国出口管制体系进行改革。20日,美国国防部长罗伯特·盖茨说,美国应建立一个分层次的出口管制体系,放松对科术产品的出口限制。专家表示,这项改革若正式实施,意味着美国将在其经济利益和安全利益之间作出更好的平衡,而不平衡的中美贸易状况也有望得到进一步改善,但严苛的对华技术出口限制能放宽多少仍有待观察。(4月23日《经济参考报》)


  这里所说的放松对中国的出口管制主要是指高科技产品管制。国内一些观察人士对美方可能对华放松出口管制寄予厚望,称美国这样做将进一步提升两国在科技创新领域交流与合作的水平,并且会在航天科学、民用航空和民航技术领域等开展或者扩大合作。这相比美国近年来在高科技合作领域的封闭态度,是一个服务于双方利益的纠偏行动。


  为了促进出口,奥巴马总统下决心要改变。据悉,白宫目前正组织美国国防部、商务部和国务院的数十名官员组成高科技出口改革委员会,制定改革方案。美国欲扩大出口,中国无疑是个庞大的市场。美方不得不考虑到中国一直以来对美国的进口需求——高科技产品。但要知道,高科术产品出口在任何国家都是个难以开放的“禁地”,美国对华高科技产品出口的总体策略必然是受管制的。


  分析人士指出,尽管奥巴马深化出口改革势在必行,但与此前的期望相比,新出炉的改革路线图暂时还难以改变美对华商品出口的管制现状。目前美国行政分支还不能改动两张清单上的限制出口商品目录,挪动或修改清单必须通过法律程序。甚至即便行政分支有朝一日能够改动商品目录,美国对中国的出口限制也不会发生本质变化。


  美国透露“放松对技术产品的出口限制”信息只是奥巴马政府的善意表态,要真正调整或取消美国高科技产品对华出口管制还需要很长的路要走。2009年美国国会通过了对《国际关系授权法案》的初步审核。这部法案规定美国总统本人有权将卫星及相关部件从军需品出口管制清单中挪出的权力。但法案在最后特别注明,总统的这一特别权力不适用于对中国等“例外国家”的出口。


  应该承认,企图维护、巩固自己已有的地位是人的本性,美国这个守成大国希望防止中国等新兴大国挑战其地位的心态也可以理解。问题是,美国在出口管制实践中许多“看人下菜碟”的做法,令其许多理论上不失崇高的目标黯然无光,而许多旨在遏制新兴大国兴起的出口管制政策,也不过是损人不利己的无效措施而已。


  实际上,对于对华出口管制的种种弊端,美国政府心知肚明。对华出口管制是一把“双刃剑”,在限制高技术产品流向中国的同时,对美国国内厂商也带来了巨大损失。当其他北约缔约国已经逐渐放宽对华出口高科技产品之时,美国的出口份额却逐年下降。2001年中国进口的高科技产品中,18.3%来自美国,到了2008年,这个数字下降至6.3%。


  如果美国能放宽对华出口管制,维持在中国同类产品进口总额18.3%的市场份额,对华高科技产品出口就可达到600多亿美元。由于中国目前已经是高科技产品出口的一个大市场,中国的电信业、计算机业和半导体市场有可能为美国公司带来巨大的商机,预计未来15年年增长率将达20至40%。


  美国加强高科技产品出口管制,乃是在权衡经济利益和战略利益后的一种政策选择。如果把这种管制政策与美国总体安全战略和总体对华政策相比较,不难发现其中惊人的一致性。出口管制本身就是美国国家安全和对外战略的一部分。说到底,加强对华高科技产品出口管制,是为更好地实施对华遏制的大战略。


  从这个意义上说,我们不必指望美放松对华高科技产品出口管制。现在,乃至将来,美国对中国的定位都比较模糊,非朋友非敌人,但综观之,美国没把中国放在他们的圈子里边,所以对华高技术出口管制肯定是长期的。就说中海油收购优尼科这件事,中国仅仅是收购石油,而且收购的油田主要是在印尼,还不是在美国本土,就引起轩然大波,美国国会都开锅了。如果美方真的要向中国出口高科技产品或尖端技术,那还不知道美国的政客会闹成什么样子。
This post appeared on the front page as a direct link to the original article with the above link .

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