A Strategy for Handling the United States

Published in Zaobao
(Singapore) on 4 May 2010
by Xin Yishan (link to originallink to original)
Translated from by Trevor Cook. Edited by Mary Lee.
In many ways, the United States restrains China's development. Most major problems that China faces only become more vexing with intervention from the U.S. Small and large problems — including Tibetan and Taiwanese separatists, Uighur independence movements, the South China Sea Islands, Afghanistan, Vietnam, Myanmar and India — gain a destructive potential though America’s support of and scheming with them. Even a slight slip-up could cause a huge problem.

Resolution of problematic situations must begin with the identification of the primary inherent contradictions. The core of all the problems listed above is American involvement; this makes these situations more serious [for China]. Therefore, a response to the U.S. [must be crafted]. The gradual weakening of American power has become key to any strategy for our response. In order to weaken U.S. power, we must first analyze and understand why America is so strong. What are the sources of U.S. power?

First: Strong Productivity

The total value of the United States’ post-war production amounts to 40 percent of the world's total. This is the foundation of America's strength and influence. And, although U.S. production now only accounts for 25 percent of the world's total, this is still a large share. Since part of this amount is largely the contribution of information technology to the American economy, while the physical economy shrinks, we must discount some of its significance. From the standpoint of production, the driving force behind the decline of the U.S. is obvious.

Second: Ideology

Because the United States promoted democracy, freedom and equality during the World Wars, it gained the approval of many nations and peoples, building a strong positive image. Woodrow Wilson's 14 Points and the post-World War II Marshall Plan, especially, added much weight to America's international influence. However, America’s positive image tarnished considerably as a result of President George W. Bush's unilateral approach to and fabrication of lies about Iraq's possession of weapons of mass destruction in order to justify invasion. America’s own actions betrayed the originally propagated slogan of "democracy, freedom and equality."

Internationally, America tramples the principles of democracy and, by repeatedly vetoing U.N. criticism of Israel, clearly demonstrates a spirit of violating democracy! Further, America constantly threatens other countries with military action and imposes economic sanctions as it pleases, clearly in violation of the spirit of "freedom and equality." It's fair to say that, internationally, the United States is creating a bad image for itself as a country that disregards "democracy, freedom, and equality.” It's fair to say that America's original great idealist influence has vanished.

Third: The U.S. Democratic Electoral System

Since the U.S. uses a democratic electoral system, its government reacts to the sentiments of its citizens. It is certain that the American government seeks the approval of its citizens, and thus it earns broad public support. This is the most important source of America's strength. Before the two World Wars, the U.S. government sought to protect its people's interest by acting cautiously and not participating much in world affairs, showing special caution in the case of wars. If victory were uncertain, the U.S. would not participate. After World War II and the decimation of the U.K., the United States inherited many international interests. These included the authority to settle foreign currency accounts, leadership in world politics, the organization of international currency funds and the establishment of a world bank.

Gaining new interests and increased international influence, the U.S. government mistakenly concluded that its military could guarantee protection of their national interests. Therefore, after World War II, the U.S. frequently used its military — in Korea, Vietnam, Iraq and hundreds of other military actions and wars of all sizes — largely consuming America's vitality.

During this time, the U.S. government appeared to be serving its public interests, but in fact, the U.S. government had been reduced to becoming the tool of special interest groups (military, oil and financial oligarchies). In essence, its government seems to have abandoned the interests of the American people.

The support of the American people for their government remains relatively high simply because they have not yet clearly realized this. However, as the U.S. economy takes a plunge, the American people will seek the cause of their country's decline. Soon, this broad public support will disappear.

Fourth: Allies

America's strength lies in a multitude of strong allies such as NATO, Europe and Japan. Contributing to these alliances are factors of mutual interests and cultural identification. European alliances rest on cultural similarity, such as similar social structures and religious beliefs, elements that naturally bring the United States and European countries together. However, because the U.S. dollar and euro are both struggling for primacy as international currencies, the relationship is continually worn down. It can be said that the United States doesn't have any real friends; no matter whether it be England, Japan, Germany, France or any of the other original "stalwart" allies, they could now conceivably turn on the U.S.

Fifth: The Internet and Computer Technology

This is America's recently acquired strength. The U.S. can, through Internet technology, investigate much that would have, in the past, required the efforts of many spies. Further, since basically the whole world uses Microsoft software, the U.S. has the ability to paralyze the economy of any country at its pleasure. Its ability to influence and acquire information has been a great factor in recent gains in its influence.

Although the United States is outstanding in the network and information technology world, an attack using network technology can only be used once before losing its effect. The U.S. is so self-complacent that it knows neither how to use this one-time opportunity nor at what decisive point it should use this capability. Thus, it is difficult for the U.S. to use such a measure. After one network attack paralyzes another country's economy, other countries would take preventive measures and change their operating systems.

The Microsoft "black screen incident" [a piracy prevention measure that slowly darkened the screens of computers with illegal copies of Windows installed] has already made many countries wary. Thus, America's advantage in Internet technology can only manifest itself in the acquisition of information. But, even if you can gain a lot of knowledge through information acquisition, this does not equate to an ability to control all knowledge.

American's real areas of competitive strength are still its economy and the quality of its population. America has already lost its aura of power in production and ideology; subduing enemies at the first sign of provocation is beyond the pale. Internet technology may be gratifying for the U.S., but it’s an advantage without much use.

As for their space shuttle, in the end, it's no advantage. Like the former advantage of airplanes, once surface-to-air missiles were developed, they were no longer an advantage. Planes that can fly in space still leave a traceable track, so they are not as stealthy as submarines and thus are nothing to fear. The U.S. should be concerned about the constant improvement and development of space-based weapons; these will give many previously weaker countries the ability attack American territory. When that time comes, America's fear and regret will be too late. Currently, the U.S. worries that its enemies will acquire nuclear weapons, but no matter how much it fears, North Korea and Iran will attain nuclear technology all the same.

In summary, when one examines the sources of America's power, all indicators point to its decline. And so, it is not an extreme to describe the U.S. as being in decline.

As for a strategy for dealing with the U.S., an immediate step that can be taken is to divide their friends and leave the U.S. without international allies. Japan has already discovered that the U.S. is in state of decline; its change in direction is not whimsy — Japan's deliberation of national policy is the best in the world. Thus, by extending more goodwill toward Japan, dividing the alliance U.S. and Japan is a possibility!

Having been displaced by the U.S. and having ceded to it much of its own international interests, England, as a former hegemony, will not be satisfied with its current situation. The long-term goal of its strategists is to let America decline and take back American interests in the Western world. Increased publicity to point out the facts of the disastrous history of the U.S.–England relationship could achieve the goal of division.

Europe has the most direct conflict with America because of the birth of the euro. Since the appearance of the euro, there has been a cashing out of dollar-denominated foreign reserves, causing dollar-denominated national debt and currency printing to go on unabated, with great affect upon America's fiscal flexibility.

Thus, attacking the euro without offending European Union members is the United States' recent plan, but this is very difficult to achieve. The recent Greek crisis is a nice American-directed episode. On the surface it appears to be caused by the interests of big business, but in reality it was an attack on the euro that forced international hot money to flow into the U.S. and ameliorate its short-term funding difficulties. It can be predicted that after the Greek crisis has been milked, there will be national debt crises in other countries in which to speculate.

Depending on the designs of the Americans, it could be Italy, Spain, Ireland or Portugal. First, operate on Greece, then move on to another marginal country; attacking Greece certainly won't cause too much discomfort among the core of European countries. Because of the conflict of interest between the dollar and the euro (the euro squeezing out the dollar), there will be many more conflicts in the future. We need to induce Europe, beginning with deferential treatment in the areas of commerce and economic cooperation, to create more conflicts of interest between the E.U. and the United States and guide the break up of the U.S.–Europe relationship.

Because France was once a great power, it has an intense national pride, and we need to fully take advantage of this. In order to demonstrate that it is an important country, France often takes actions that other countries find offensive in order to remind them how great France is. Acts such as the so-called talks with the Dalai Lama are France wanting to demonstrate its importance, but we need to be deft at taking advantage of France's desire to portray itself as great. France also does many things that offend the U.S. and Russia in order to prove its importance. If any country in the Western world is brave enough to challenge America, it's France. Therefore, at the international level we must demonstrate more respect for France's every instance of daring to challenge America and make clear that China wants to study France's posture. Believe it, the right measures could make France stir up a resistance in the West against the banner of the U.S. France is a critical link in the strategy of handling the U.S.; hopefully it will be given ample emphasis in foreign relations.

In the realm of international propaganda, we need to reveal more about how the U.S. violates democracy, freedom and equality and not be worried about offending Americans' sensibilities. Internationally, it doesn't matter whether or not you offend the U.S.; the U.S. will always try to make trouble with you. So, let's not allow our propaganda lose a good opportunity to capture the moral high ground by worrying about some "big picture."

Economically, the most important thing is to buy less America's debt; we must not aid the enemy. Americans know they need to limit China's development and limit exports from China, but our current policy is to do nothing about this. From now on, since we understand that the majority of our problems is instigated by the U.S, we need to cut its claws and weaken its strengths.

Many people will question whether we really can contribute to the decline of America's era of power. Of course [we can]; look at the circumstances. Today, America is bankrupt. The might of America's military operations rely on America's fiscal power, and America's deficit depends on strong U.S. Treasury bonds. Because America's national debt is rapidly growing, the number of countries able to buy into its financial burden is fewer and fewer. If China now implements a strategy of fighting back, America's funding sources will certainly dry up or be cut off.

After this happens, the direct consequence will be that America will be unable to fund and support its military operations; Falun Gong, Uighur or Tibetan independence movements or other anti-Chinese forces. Strategic economic decisions are of utmost importance. Purchase of American debt cannot be left to "financial brokers." It is only because we have lacked strategy that we have been repeatedly passive in our relationship with the United States. We need to begin considering and deciding our own economic and financial strategy at the macroeconomic level; we cannot just consider [foreign] economic actions as something we don't care about. Economic actions are strategic actions. We must play the chips we have. Only by setting up a strategic committee responsible for our investment strategy will our long-term benefit be brought about.

Some economists misleadingly say that not investing is our loss, but investing in American debt is hardly without loss: in one year it will earn four or five percent interest but, if in that same year it goes down in value by 10 percent, how is that worth it? The common people must all understand! The current rise in dollar value is just temporary because America's national debt is building up, but its economic growth depends on a rising dollar. All the while, many countries are emptying their hands of reserve dollars in view of their long-term trend toward devaluation. The current rise in the dollar allows the American weasels in our Central Bank to report statistical gains to our leaders in order to buy even more American debt. It is entirely possible that the dollar could soon devalue by 20–30 percent. U.S. manipulations cannot be trusted. We must have our own position!


应对美国的战略

[2631]  (2010-05-04)

美国在很多方面都抑制中国发展,中国大部分大的问题都是因为美国的捣乱才感觉到心烦。藏独、台独、疆独、南海问题、阿富汗、越南、缅甸、印度等等大大小小的问题都是因为有美国的支持和策划,才使得这些事件具有破坏性。稍有不慎,就会引发大的麻烦。

  凡事的解决都必须找到主要的矛盾,上面所列的所有问题的关键都是因为美国因素才让事态严重。因此应对美国。消弱美国的力量就成为对美战略的关键。而要消弱美国力量,我们首先必须明白美国为什么强大?美国的力量源泉是什么?先分析美国的力量源泉。

  第一. 强大的生产力。美国二战后的生产总值占世界的40%。这是美国力量和影响力的基础。而现在,美国的生产总值只占世界的25%,但还是占着大的份额。这其中还因为虚拟化程度高,实体经济份额减少,要剔除部分的水分。从生产力方面来看美国的衰落的驱使是明显的。

  第二. 观念。美国在驿站和二战时因为提倡民主、自由、平等,在世界上获得很多国家和人民的认可,具有强大的正面形象。特别是一战时伍德威尔逊提出的和平十四条和二战后的马歇尔计划,为美国的国际影响力增加了强大的砝码。可是,由于布什执行单边主义,编造谎言说伊拉克有大杀伤性武器侵略伊拉克,美国的正面形象遭受极大的损害。原有宣传的“民主、自由、平等”口号也被美国自己的行为所否认。在国际上美国践踏民主原则,多次否决联合国谴责以色列的议案,明显有违民主精神!而动不动就威胁要对别过采取军事手段,随意的对别国实行经济制裁这明显的有违“自由平等”精神。可以说美国自己在国际上正在塑造一个践踏“民主自由平等”的恶劣形象。可以说美国原来强大的观念影响力现在已荡然无存。

  第三.美国实行民主选举制度,因此美国政府对于国内的民众可以说是相当负责任的。也就是说美国政府为国内民众谋福利是可定的。也因此获得了广大美国民众的支持。这是美国力量最强大的基础。在一战和二战之前美国的政府还算是为美国民众谋福利,因为他们谨慎行事,不多参与国际事务,特别是战争的参与则更加的谨慎。没有获胜把握不参加。二战后由于英国的衰落,美国自然的接收了很多原来英国的国际利益(如国际货币结算权、政治领导权、国际货币基金组织和世界银行建立)。利益的获得和国际影响力的增加使得美国政府错误的总结经验,以为强大的军事实力才是利益获得的保证。因此,二战后美国频繁用兵,如韩战、越战、伊拉克战争等大大小小一百多次战争,极大的消耗了美国的元气。在这期间,美国政府表

  面上是为了美国国民的利益服务,而实际上的美国政府已沦为利益集团(军工、石油、金融寡头)的工具,所作所为可以说在实质上也是背离美国民众的利益。只是美国民众现在还没有那么明显的意识到,因此美国政府的国内民众支持率还是相应较高。可是一旦美国经济大衰退,美国的民众就会寻找发现美国衰落的原因。到那时,广泛的民意支持也将消失。

  第四. 盟友。美国的国际影响力在于他们有众多坚强的盟友。如北约、欧洲、日本等。这里面有相互利用的因素,也有文化认同的因素。欧洲盟友在于文化的相似性。同样的制度,同样的宗教信仰是自然捏合美国与欧洲国家的因素。可是,现在的美国因为欧元与美元争夺国际结算货币的主导权和份额,龌龊不断。可以说美国现在没有真正的朋友,在国际上不论是英国,日本、德国、法国等等原来“铁杆”的盟友现在都有可能“倒打一耙”。

  第五.网络和计算机技术。这是美国新增的力量。美国通过网络技术可以获知喝多过去需要通过大量间谍才能获得的信息。而世界上的计算机基本使用微软的软件,因此美国有能力可以随时让随便的那个国家的经济瘫痪。信息的影响力和获得能力是美国在近期弥补国际影响力的一大因素。美国虽然可以在网络和信息技术上傲视世界,但网络技术得攻击只能使用一次,过后就失效,因此沾沾自喜的美国不知道怎么来使用这个第一次,又不知道什么时候才是决战的时候,这让美国难以把握。因为使用一次网络攻击后使别的国家经济瘫痪后,别的国家就会防备,就会更改操作系统。而一次微软的黑屏事件就已经让世界各国警惕。因此美国的网络技术优势只能表现在信息获得上。但是,信息获得,你知道很多的事情,并不等于就可以控制。实有的对抗还是经济实力和人口素质的对抗。在生产力和观念上已经失去光环的美国,要想一招制敌是不可能。网络技术只能是美国偷着乐,但作用不大的优势。至于什么空天飞机,拿根本不是什么优势。这就像以前的飞机是优势一样,等到导弹发明了飞机就没有什么优势了。而且在空间上飞行的空天飞机,其轨道是可测的,隐蔽性不能比潜艇强,因此并没有什么可怕。美国应该忧虑的是:空天武器的不断改良和发展会让很多原来没有能力打击到美国本土的国家,具备可以打击美国本土的军事能力。到那时,美国恐慌和后悔就来不及了。就像现在美国害怕核武器被敌对势力获得一样,可是不管你美国怎么害怕,朝鲜和伊朗还是一样获得了核技术。

  综上所述,从美国的力量来源看,美国各项力量指标呈现衰落。因此给美国定义衰落,并不为过。

  在应对美国的战略上,可以即刻着手的是分化美国的盟友,让美国在国际上缺少盟友。日本已发现美国的衰落形态,日本的转向不是随意而为。日本的国策研究是全世界最好的。因此多想日本释放善意,分化美国与日本的关系是可为的!

  英国原来遭受美国的逼宫,出让很多的国际利益,作为原来的霸主不会满足于现状。怎么才能让美国衰落,重新接受美国在西方世界的国际利益是英国战略家门的长远谋划。指出英美两国相互祸害的历史事实,多宣传可达分化目的。

  欧盟因为欧元诞生与美国发生了最为直接的冲突,因为欧元的出现,美元在世界储备的份额被大量的挤占,使得美元国债和美元现钞的发行遭到挤兑,大大的影响力美国的财政能力。因此打击欧元,又不得罪欧洲盟国是美国的近期计划。但这难度很大。最近的希腊危机就是美国导演的打击欧元的好戏,表面上看好像是高盛的企业利益所致。但实际上是为了打击欧元逼迫国际热钱流向美国缓解美国的资金链短缺问题。可以预判:在希腊危机炒作过后,就会发生其他国家的的债务危机炒作。是意大利、西班牙、爱尔兰还是葡萄牙看美国人的构思。先拿希腊开刀,在于希腊还是欧洲的边缘国家,打击希腊并不会让核心欧洲国家感觉难为情。美国和欧盟因为欧元与美元的利益冲突(挤占美元的利益空间)因此以后的矛盾会不少。我

  们要对欧盟进行诱导,在商业开发和经济合作上多做出一些区别对待,制造欧盟与美国的利益冲突,拉拢欧盟,分化美国与欧盟的关系。

  法国因为原来即使大国,具有强烈的大国情怀,我们要充分利用。法国人为了表现自己是大国,经常做出得罪其他大国的行动来说明自己是大国。所谓会见达赖等都是法国要强的表现。但是我们要善于利用法国要强的表现。法国一样也做主很多得罪美国和俄罗斯的动作来证明自己是大国。在西方世界敢于与美国叫板的也就是法国。因此我们在国际层面上要多表现出佩服法国敢于叫板美国的种种表现,做出中国要多学习法国的姿态。相信适当的措施可以让法国在西方时间诶挑起反美大旗。法国是对美战略的一个关键环节,希望外交上给予充分的重视。

  在国际宣传上要多揭示美国怎么违背民主自由和平等的事实,不要有什么得罪美国人的心态。在国际上不管你是否得罪美国,美国佬一样跟这个人捣乱。因此上我们的宣传口径不能因为“什么考虑大局”而失去占领道德制高点的好机会。

  在经济上最重要,拿就是少买美国国债。不能资敌。美国人都知道要限制中国的发展,限制对中国的出口。而我们却好,对美国来个袒胸露腹的美防备。从现在起,既然明白我们大部分的问题都是因为美国的挑唆引起的,那么我们就要斩断魔爪。限制和消弱美国的强大。很多人会责问,美国的强大时你可以消弱的吗?当然,形势使然。现在的美国资不抵债。美国的军事实力运行依靠着美国的财政,美国的赤字财政则依靠着美国国债的发行。美国国债的发行由于是恶性的累加和增长,因此上在国际上可以承接高额增长的美国国债的国家少之又少。如果中国现在开始进行战略反击,那么美国的资金链必然会萎缩或者断裂。美国国家资金链萎缩或断裂的直接后果是:美国无法为其强大的军事提供资金运转、无法为法轮功疆独、藏

  独等反中国的势力提供赞助,无法反动扰乱中国的各种计划、也无法唆使其他国家来与中国捣乱。经济上的决策是重中之重。不能放任购买美国国债的行为让“美国的金融掮客”来主导。对美关系我们是无战略才导致屡屡被动。在经济和金融决策上要从宏观层面上来思考和判断,不能只考虑是经济行为我们不管。经济行为就是战略行为。要珍惜我们的筹码。成立专门的战略委员会,由这个委员会来决定我们的投资决策,才可以为我们带来长远的利益。那些经济专家忽悠说不投资就是损失,难道投资美债就没有损失,一年得到的利息是4%或5%可是美元的贬值年超过10%,究竟是怎样才合算?老百姓都懂!现在的美元升值只是暂时的,因为美国的国债发行和合吸引资金进入美国需要美元升值,而且很多的国家看到美元长期的贬值趋

  势也在脱手美元储备。还有现在的美元升值可以在数据上让我们央行里的美国鼬鼠可以向领导汇报数据上的获利,以便更大的购买美国国债。在接下来美元再贬值20%或者30%都有可能。不能相信美国的操弄。我们要有自己的主张!

  辛一山
This post appeared on the front page as a direct link to the original article with the above link .

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Russia: The Issue of Weapons Has Come to the Forefront*

Colombia: How Much Longer?

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Mexico: Trump vs. Cuba: More of the Same

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1 COMMENT

  1. Much of what you say is right on the mark, but do not confuse the use of our federal government by the banking system & large corporate interests with some kind of utilization of the banks by our federal government. Our elected “representatives” are for sale to the highest bidder, and have been for a very long time…they no longer attempt to enact the will of their constituents, and our failed 2-party system has degenerated into a “bad-cop vs. worse cop” scenario, where the voters find themselves without any candidates to vote “for”, but instead, are constantly voting “against” what they are led to believe is a worse candidate…this is how the voting public here is manipulated.
    You seem to be worried about our financial ability to pay back the money we’ve borrowed, and you’re right to be…at this point, much of our consumer-oriented manufacturing has left the country, due to the elimination of our import tariffs, which the government gladly instituted on the orders of it’s corporate masters. This leaves the U.S. citizens working in government sponsored jobs as having the only jobs with enough pay to actually tax them (with a few industry exceptions), and they are increasingly being paid with borrowed money. Attempting to tax your workers enough to pay them & pay back debt at the same time is very similar to the old idea of a snake eating it’s own tail…and don’t expect the U.S. government to start taxing wealthy citizens again, like we did before the “Reaganomics” tinkle-down..err..trickle-down theory was enacted, as our officials are employed by the wealthy, and in most cases are counted as members of the wealthy themselves. With most of the GDP of the country in the hands of only 20% of the population (immune from taxation), and the continuing decrease in the number of adequate U.S. jobs, I’d say your investment is in peril. May I suggest that when the government defaults, either directly or by printing money until it’s worthless, that you “foreclose” by nationalizing all U.S. industry that has moved to China?…at the very least, the citizens here who have been dispossessed of their jobs would all have a good laugh.