When Will America Attack Iran?

Published in Xinhua
(China) on 12 May 2010
by Han Xudong (link to originallink to original)
Translated from by John Yu. Edited by Harley Jackson.
At the moment, Iranian President Ahmadinejad is the only person who will be attending the UN nuclear talks, during which he will defend his nation’s development of nuclear technology, which he insists is peaceful. Iran, unfortunately, has not been cooperating with the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) and has failed to provide conclusive proof that its designs are peaceful. That makes its nuclear program a mystery and the ongoing dispute with America remains at a stalemate. Since Obama proclaimed the idea of a nuclear-free world, many have predicted that Iran will be attacked on the grounds of being a “nuclear terrorist.” At this point, it is anyone’s guess whether the U.S. will eventually invade.

Is America preparing to invade?

The history of Uncle Sam’s dominance shows that ever since the U.S. started expanding its overseas influence in the 1898 Spanish-American War, it has been using the carrot and the stick to advance its agenda. When the carrot fails, America has no qualms about resorting to the stick, a trend which may soon apply to Iran. Unfortunately, the stick is not working either, so America may soon start using a bigger stick.

If America is preparing to invade, it might not be readily apparent. That’s because it wouldn’t need to dispatch large numbers of troops the way it invaded Iraq or conduct air strikes as it did in Yugoslavia. It could simply mount a multi-pronged attack from the three regions in which troops have already been stationed – Iraq, Afghanistan, and the Indian Ocean.

Why Hasn’t America Invaded Yet?

If they’re preparing to invade, why haven’t they done so yet? The answer is that it would be very different than invading Iraq or Afghanistan. First, there aren’t yet any grounds for an attack; America does not have sufficient proof that a nuclear weapon is being developed. Given the fact that America was never able to prove its reasons for the invasion of Iraq, it is unlikely that Obama will launch a similar campaign against Iran. Second, Iran has different terrain and a different military force than the Taliban. Iraq is flat whereas Iran is mountainous, and although the Taliban won Afghanistan’s civil war, it is still far weaker than Iran. Currently, Iran is nearly the dominant power of the Middle East, and America is not about to carelessly invade.

Is America Awaiting the Right Opportunity?

The stick is one of America’s favorite methods of subjugating opponents, so why hasn’t it used it yet? They are waiting for the right chance (first pacify Iraq and Afghanistan, then focus on Iran), making a case for invasion, focusing on objectives and awaiting the right global climate.

If Iran refuses to “cooperate,” there’s no doubt America will invade. We’ll just have to wait and see when and on what scale it happens.




美国何时打伊朗?


最近,伊朗总统内贾德是惟一亲自出席联合国 “核会议”的总统,目的是为伊朗发展核项目辩护。他坚称伊朗核项目是出于和平目的,而不是寻求制造核武器。但是,伊朗却不与国际原子能机构合作,不向该机构提供能够证明其核项目是用于和平目的而不是制造原子弹的相关材料。这样,伊朗的核计划也就成了一个谜团,美国与伊朗之间就“核问题”形成僵局。自奥巴马提出“无核世界”后,人们预计美国将可能以对付“核恐怖主义”为由对伊朗下手。美国军事打击伊朗又成为一个悬念,使人们提出种种猜测。

美国正在做打伊朗的准备吗?

从山姆大叔的称霸史不难看出,自1898年美西战争走上海外扩张后,美国就一直使用“胡萝卜加大棒”来推行其霸权政策。当使用“胡萝卜”不好使时,美国就毫不迟疑地挥舞“大棒”,即武力。目前,当伊朗不吃美国“胡萝卜”后,美国只好求助于“棒子”了。可是,美国频频使用“小棒子”仍然没有慑服伊朗后,美国对伊朗使用“大棒子”也就不奇怪了。

当然,就美国现在的军事能力而言,美国完全可以不用像打伊拉克或空袭南联盟那样大规模调兵遣将地在伊朗周边地区部署兵力。美国完全可以利用其驻在伊拉克和阿富汗以及来自印度洋三个方向的兵力对伊朗实施打击行动。所以,人们现在也就看不到紧锣密鼓的美国军事准备的紧张场面了。

美国怎么还没有动手?

既然美国准备对伊朗下手,美国为何现在还没有下手呢?实际上,伊朗这个目标与美国打伊拉克和打阿富汗有着很大不同。主要原因有:一是还没有找到合适的理由。美国还没有足够的证据来证明伊朗正在发展核武器。在打伊拉克至今还没有确凿的证据向世人交待其发动战争的理由的情况下,奥巴马是不会轻易发动对伊朗战争的。二是伊朗的地形与伊拉克不同,伊朗的军力与塔利班不同。伊拉克绝大部分国土是平原,伊朗却绝大部分国土是山地;塔利班虽然在内战中取胜,实力却与伊朗不可比。伊朗的军力在中东地区现在几乎处于霸主地位。面对伊朗这样的一个对手,美国是不会轻易下手的。

美国要等什么时机打?

美国惯用“大棒”让对手慑服,这是其一贯作风了。那么,面对伊朗这个“刺头儿”,美国迟迟没有对它下手,那要等何时呢?实际上,美国在等合适的时机:一是稳定伊拉克和阿富汗两地局势后,集中精力教训伊朗;二是找到充分的理由;三是掌握准确的伊朗目标;四是国际造势还不成熟。

如果伊朗一直“不配合”美国,美国对伊朗动武将是毫无疑问的事情。美国何时对伊朗动武,以多大规模对伊朗动武,人们拭目以待吧!
This post appeared on the front page as a direct link to the original article with the above link .

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