The American Experience: Rethinking Homeownership

Published in Sohu
(China) on 18 June 2010
by Xue Yong (link to originallink to original)
Translated from by Sarah Chan. Edited by Benjamin Beeghly.
In recent decades, Chinese homeownership levels have increased sharply. Real estate has become a symbol of the middle class, paralleling the American way of life to some extent. Remember George W. Bush’s presidential campaign slogan a few years back? He wanted the U.S. to become an “ownership society,” and he was not the only one; Clinton, who was in office for eight years, also claimed homeownership levels as the key indicator of a prosperous society.

However, with the collapse of the real estate market, U.S. scholars began reflecting on “ownership society.” Recently, sociologist Richard Florida published a shocking theory in The Wall Street Journal where he argues that homeownership is a hindrance to a creative society. He suggests that those Americans more likely to own a home are also those more likely to be poor. His data are very clear: The areas in the U.S. where homeownership levels are high are generally the spots falling economically behind, where the people are poor and the quality of life is low. In areas where homeownership is less prevalent, economies are developed, wages are high, and the quality of life is excellent. For example, cities that have homeownership levels of 75 percent or higher — such as Detroit, Pittsburgh and St. Louis — have been hit the hardest by the economic downturn. Some areas in Detroit are like ghost towns. Looking at areas where the homeownership level was only 55 to 60 percent — such as New York, Los Angeles, San Francisco and even Boulder, Colorado — the economy is developed and income is high. In Gallup surveys of these areas, people report high levels of happiness and general well-being.

Why is this? A careful comparison of the two groups of cities will help you to understand. The former group consists of traditional industrial cities, inhabited by industrial workers. The latter group is built on the high-tech, education and service industries, attracting a large number of young, highly educated creative talent. The income levels and lifestyles of these groups are very different, which affects the local housing prices and homeownership levels.

Buying property became popular in the U.S. after World War II. At the time, the U.S. was a “world factory.” After graduating high school, students worked in local factories, enjoying high wages, good welfare and better days than professors. Even the children of professors became workers instead of going to university, never leaving their hometowns.

In the 1950s, the world tuned in to the “Kitchen Debate” between American Vice President Richard Nixon and Soviet leader Nikita Khrushchev, taking place in the kitchen of a house at the American National Exhibition in Moscow. Soviet leaders and press mocked the “luxurious house” on display, comparing it to the Taj Mahal and suggesting that ordinary Americans had no chance of owning such a home. The implication was that it was Cold War propaganda intended to deceive citizens of the Soviet Union. Nixon responded by convincingly illustrating that the wages of a U.S. steelworker could easily afford this so-called luxury. Internationally, homeownership became closely linked with “American values” and the “American Dream,” continuing into the 1990s.

At the end of the 20th Century, the information revolution profoundly changed the structure of the U.S. economy, and has now begun to impact the housing structure. The foundations of a “world factory” economy, as the name suggests, are factories, and their employees will naturally root themselves to the area and buy a house. Unfortunately for these workers, while jobs in the high-tech and service industries have increased in the last decades, manufacturing jobs have been steadily outsourced.

A creative-based economy demands mobility and adaptability. You can’t expect three big cars in an assembly line to move somewhere else at the drop of a hat. However, the founders of the New Economy Fund (310358, SYWG BNP PARIBAS New Economy Fund) picked up their laptops and left, going wherever there was opportunity. They certainly did not want to be tied down with a house. Today, the U.S. homeownership level has fallen from a peak of 70 percent to 67 percent. The Urban Land Institute expects continued declines to 62 percent. Richard Florida claims that if the nation’s homeownership level decreases to 60 or 55 percent, which is the current level of advanced cities, economic development will be a lot healthier.

There are, of course, big differences between the national conditions of China and the U.S. For example, in China there is a very high turnover rate of low-paid industrial workers in the manufacturing industry. Foxconn’s workers often leave after working for a few months, and of course cannot buy a “Taj Mahal” like their American counterparts. However, the coastal metropolises continue to become more white-collar and high-tech and show no signs of slowing down. Once the development of second-tier cities catches up, many high-tech companies may move toward low-cost housing areas, creating new economic momentum. However, it is difficult for people who are tied down by a house to participate in this new economy. It’s hard to predict when China’s economy will become “dynamic.” That said, buying a house is more about life plans for the next few decades and warrants further consideration of the economic outlook.


美国的经验:买房有碍经济发展?
最近十几年,中国人的住房拥有率急剧提高。房产已经成为中场阶级的标志。这多少有些效仿美国的生活方式。还记得几年前布什竞选总统时的口号吗?他要美国成为“有产者的社会”(ownership society)。不仅是他,克林顿在任八年,也把提高住房拥有率作为繁荣社会的关键指标。

  但是,随着房地产泡沫的崩解,美国学者们开始对“有产者社会”进行反省。最近以研究创新社会着称的社会学家Richard Florida在《华尔街日报》上发表惊人之论:拥有住房和创新社会相矛盾。越是有房越贫困。他的数据清清楚楚:在美国住房拥有率高的地区,一般都经济落后、老百姓贫困、生活质量相当差。住房拥有率低的地方,则经济发达、工资高、生活质量优异。比如,住房拥有率在75%的几大城市,如底特律、匹斯堡、圣路易斯等,如今都是美国经济的重灾区。底特律的有些区几乎如同鬼城。再看住房拥有率仅为55%-60%的地区,比如纽约、洛杉矶、旧金山、乃至中北部内陆科罗拉多州的博耳德(Boulder),则经济发达、收入高。根据盖洛普的民调,这里居民的幸福感和生活质量都非常高。

  为什么会如此呢?仔细对比这两类城市就明白。前一类是传统的工业城市,为产业工人聚居区。后一类是高科技、教育、和服务业的中心,吸引了大量年轻、高知识的创造性人才。这两部分人的收入水平乃至生活方式都非常不同,乃至影响到了当地的房价和住房拥有率。美国的私房热,是从战后开始。那时美国是“世界工厂”,高中生毕业后就在本地工厂里就职,享受高福利、高工资,比教授的日子好不少,乃至有教授的孩子不读大学而要当工人,一辈子不会离开故乡。五十年代作为副总统的尼克松和苏联领导人赫鲁晓夫在莫斯科的美国展厅进行了世界瞩目的“厨房辩论”,地点就是美国展览的房子中的厨房中。当时苏联媒体讽刺美国人展览的“豪宅”是“泰姬陵”,和普通人无缘,是拿来进行冷战宣传、忽悠苏联老百姓的。尼克松则一五一十地算工资,令人信服地说明:一个美国钢铁工人的工资,可以轻松地买下这个“豪宅”。住房由此成为“美国价值”和“美国梦”的国际招牌,一直延续到了九十年代。

  但是,也正是在九十年代,信息革命深刻地改变了美国的经济结构,其影响如今已经扩散到了住房结构上。“世界工厂”的基础顾名思义是工厂,工厂属于“跑得了和尚跑不了庙”的制造业。其雇员自然跟着在本地扎根、买房。高科技和服务业崛起后,制造业纷纷“外包”。而创新型经济的要求是机动、“人挪活树挪死”。三大汽车的流水线不能说搬家就搬家。但是,新经济(310358,基金吧)的创造者们,拿起自己的笔记本电脑就走人,哪里有机会就去哪里。他们当然不愿意被房子套住了。如今,美国的住房拥有率已经从70%的高峰跌到了67%,城市土地研究所则预计将继续下跌到62%。Richard Florida声称,如果全美的住房拥有率降低到55%-60%,也就是目前先进城市的水平,则经济发展要健康得多。

  中国的国情当然和美国有相当大的不同。比如,制造业的低薪是产业工人流转率非常大,富士康的职工经常干几个月就走,当然不可能象美国工人那样在当地买座“泰姬陵”了。但是,沿海大都市不断白领化、高科技化,大概是不可避免的趋势。一旦二线城市的发展赶上,许多高科技企业可能向这些住房成本低的地区流动,创造出新的经济动力。而被住房套住的人,则很难参与这种新经济。总之,老经济静,新经济动。中国的经济何时能够“动”起来,现在还很难预测。但是,买房多涉及几十年的生活规划,对经济远景不可不多加考虑。
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