Chaos in the Middle East Worries U.S.

Published in Sohu
(China) on 2 July 2010
by An Huihou (link to originallink to original)
Translated from by Michelle Deeter. Edited by Gheanna Emelia.
When Obama became president, he made some substantial revisions to America’s Middle East policy, confirming the following objectives: promoting peace talks between Israel and Palestine; making progress on the two-state solution; gradually withdrawing troops from Iraq and allowing the Iraqis to govern themselves; increasing the troops in Afghanistan and fighting against al-Qaida and its extremist associates; putting isolated pressure on Iran to force it to stop developing nuclear weapons; improving America’s image in the Arab-Islamic world; and preserving America’s dominance in political and economic affairs in the Middle East. However, a year and a half later, these objectives have still not been accomplished.

First of all, peace talks between Israel and Palestine have stalled, thanks to Israel’s tough stance. Since Israel refuses to stop talking about establishing a Jewish settlement, the peace talks are unable to get off the ground. America, steering clear of the settlement issue, forced indirect peace talks to start on May 9. On May 31, the Israeli army attacked an international flotilla carrying relief supplies to Gaza, provoking condemnation from the international society and putting America in an awkward situation. Even so, America still favors Israel.

Second, it is still impossible to discern the direction of the political situation in Iraq. On March 7, Iraq held parliamentary elections. The results have been inspected, confirmed and announced; however, since it is difficult to balance the different interests between the parties, a government has still not been formed. At the same time, after the Americans began to withdraw troops, violent attacks in Iraq visibly increased. The political situation in Iraq has many uncertain factors, which will affect the implementation of America’s withdrawal plans again.

Third, the political situation in Afghanistan is even more chaotic than in Iraq. American high officials accused the Afghan government of being corrupt and incompetent while Afghan President Hamid Karzai criticized America for interfering too much in his country’s internal affairs. The situation was so tense that at one point Karzai even threatened to elicit support from the Taliban. In June, the highest military official stationed in Afghanistan, General Stanley McChrystal, criticized several top officials in America, exposing the partisan politics of the U.S. Army.

Obama emphasized that America will stick to the original strategy and time frame in Afghanistan, but noted that many American troops will still be stationed there in July 2011, after the troop withdrawal begins. Both the U.S. Army and the intelligence agencies concede that the war in Afghanistan will drag on for a long time.

Fourth, there has been no progress on the issue of Iran’s nuclear program. When Obama first came into office, he said that he wanted to have direct talks with Iran, but since neither side was able to make compromises in good faith, the talks did not achieve anything. Western media agencies repeatedly reported that the American and Israeli armies attacked Iranian nuclear facilities. Meanwhile, Iran announced that it will independently produce uranium enriched to 20 percent. America has continued to promote sanctions on Iran in U.N. Security Council meetings and confirmed that it would impose unilateral sanctions on Iran. Iran reacted harshly to these measures. The Iran nuclear issue is still at an impasse.

Additionally, after Obama came to office he showed his good intentions to the Arabic-Islamic world, at one time gaining a favorable impression. However, the actions of the Obama administration in the Middle East, especially the favoritism and indulgence toward Israel, are dismaying. On May 17, the Pew Research Center of America announced its opinion poll results, reporting that the percentage of people who held a favorable opinion about America dropped from 27 percent in 2009 to 17 percent. Fewer than 20 percent of people living in other Islamic countries held a favorable opinion about the United States. The state of affairs shows that even though the U.S. is a dominant power in the Middle East, its ability to lead is declining.

The hot topics in the Middle East are all difficult to resolve in a short amount of time, and the Middle East is still going to be unstable in the long term. The U.S. is not going to give up its right to govern affairs in the Middle East; consequently, it will undoubtedly be deeply involved in the region in the long term. America's actions in the Middle East have restrained it to a considerable extent, which has affected its ability to fully implement the major points in its global strategy in the East, especially in the Asia-Pacific region.


奥巴马出任总统后对美国的中东政策进行了大幅度调整,确定了如下战略目标:推动巴以和谈,按照“两国方案”取得实质性进展;逐步从伊拉克撤军,实现伊人治伊;增兵阿富汗,击败“基地组织及其极端主义同伙”;孤立打压伊朗,迫其停止发展核技术;改善美在阿拉伯—伊斯兰世界的形象;维持美国在中东事务中的主导地位。然而一年半时间过去,上述目标并没有实现。

  首先,巴以和谈因以色列政府的强硬立场停滞不前。以拒不停建犹太定居点使得巴以和谈无法启动。美国绕开定居点问题,于5月9日勉强启动巴以间接谈判。5月31日以军袭击向加沙运送救援物资的国际救援船队,引发国际社会强烈谴责,并使美国处境尴尬,但美仍对以偏袒。

  第二,伊拉克政局仍让人看不清方向。3月7日伊拉克举行了议会选举,虽然选举结果公布并核查确认,但因各党派间利益难以平衡,直到现在仍无法组成政府。同时,美开始撤军后,伊拉克暴力袭击事件明显增多。伊政局走向存在许多不确定因素,这又将影响美撤军计划的实施。

  第三,阿富汗局势更是一团糟。美高官公开指责阿富汗政府腐败无能,总统卡尔扎伊则批评美过多干涉阿内政。双方关系一度十分紧张,卡尔扎伊甚至威胁要投靠塔利班。6月,美军驻阿最高指挥官麦克里斯特尔批评美多名政府高官,使得美军政间的分歧公开化。奥巴马强调,美坚持原定战略和时间表,但2011年7月开始撤军后,还将有大量美军驻留阿富汗。美军方和情报部门都承认,阿富汗战争将旷日持久。

  第四,伊核问题仍无进展。奥巴马上任之初表示要与伊朗直接对话,由于双方均无妥协的诚意,对话未能实现。西方媒体多次报道美、以将军事袭击伊朗核设施。伊朗则宣布将自行生产20%的高浓缩铀。美仍继续推动安理会通过新的对伊朗制裁决定,还确定了对伊朗单边制裁的措施。伊朗对此均予以强硬应对。伊核问题仍陷僵局。

  此外,奥巴马上任后多次向阿拉伯—伊斯兰世界示好,一度博得一些好感。然而奥巴马政府在中东的作为,尤其是对以色列的偏袒与放纵,令人失望。美国皮尤研究中心5月17日公布的民调结果是,埃及对美有好感者的比例从2009年的27%下降到17%,其他伊斯兰国家对美有好感者也基本上在人口的20%以下。事态表明,美国在中东虽然仍居主导地位,但其主导能力正在衰退。

  中东地区的热点问题均难在短时间里得到解决,中东地区仍将长期动荡不稳。美国不会放弃对中东事务的主导权,势必将长期深陷在这个地区。地区热点问题对美国的牵制,也使得美国将全球战略重点东移至亚太地区的计划无法真正全面实施。(中国国际问题研究基金会理事安惠侯)

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