Motives behind U.S.-South Korean Military Exercise

Published in Nanfang Daily
(China) on 19 July 2010
by (link to originallink to original)
Translated from by Eugene Tan. Edited by Gheanna Emelia.
The U.S. and South Korea have decided to conduct a joint military exercise in the Yellow Sea and the Sea of Japan. The international community has made all kinds of guesses regarding the timing of this military exercise — its goal, the arrival of the U.S.S. George Washington at the Yellow Sea, etc. After expressing five consecutive times its intense opposition to the U.S.-South Korean military exercise, China has garnered a lot of attention and publicity. To provide an authoritative analysis of this issue, Chinanews.com invited and interviewed Zhu Chenghu, Major General of the Research Department of the National Defense University.

What is the motive behind the U.S.-South Korean military exercise? Zhu Chenghu says that there are a lot of motives. The first motive is to deter and intimidate North Korea.

Actually, in the beginning, South Koreans did not have a consistent response regarding the sinking of the South Korean patrol ship, the Cheonan. At first, South Koreans thought that North Koreans sunk the ship, but next, they said that the Cheonan may have been sunk by South Koreans themselves. After an investigation, South Koreans believed that they had irrefutable evidence proving that North Korea was involved with the incident, but the international community did not have an accurate conclusion.

Zhu Chenghu states that the U.S. has played a very important role in this incident, maybe even a leadership role. From the start of this incident to the end, the U.S. has taken full advantage of this opportunity to propose three conditions. The first is to make North Korea admit fault, the second is to guarantee that it will not happen again, and the third is to make North Korea apologize to the international community.

In recent times, North Korea seems to have expressed an unwillingness to cooperate with the world on a series of issues, so the U.S. decided to take action. On the other hand, there are also factors regarding China because after this incident, South Korea has persistently tried to get China’s support. Zhu Chenghu states that China’s position and policy regarding this matter are correct and that this is the attitude that a responsible superpower should assume. If there is no evidence that North Korea was involved, then no arbitrary decision can be made.

In the recent past, the South Korean people seem to have a higher level of anti-China sentiments than before. The main reason is that the South Korean media has led people to believe that China’s government is not cooperating with South Korea. Zhu Chenghu believes that South Korea’s public opinion may have been misled.

Regarding the question of whether the U.S.-South Korea military exercise is aimed at putting pressure on China or trying to propagandize something to China, Zhu Chenghu states:

“From the point of view of this military exercise, we cannot really call this a drill because there was not adequate preparation in advance. Under normal circumstances, for a large-scale joint military exercise such as this, at least four months to half a year of preparation are needed. However, the preparation for this particular military exercise was obviously very rushed. Secondly, there was no coordination for this exercise because there have been so many exercises done by U.S. and South Korean armies, more than 100 in one year. However, this particular exercise was not planned, so it is not practical to call it a drill. It is complete propaganda.”

Regarding the implications that this exercise has on China, Zhu Chenghu states that there are some other motives involved. He claims that in recent times, which include the first half of this year, U.S. Secretary of Defense Robert Gates wanted to visit China, but China refused him, obviously making the U.S. unhappy, especially the Pentagon. Therefore, it is understandable that the U.S. would want to take advantage of an opportunity to demonstrate its presence and influence in Asia.

Zhu Chenghu says that the area for the military exercise includes the Yellow Sea, which is just next door to China. This is obviously the U.S. trying to flex its muscles in front of China and demonstrate the solidarity between the U.S. and South Korean military alliance. Therefore, this is an indication that all is not normal.


专家:美韩军演动机很多 意在向中国炫耀武力

美韩两国决定在黄海和日本海举行联合军事演习。围绕此次演习的时机、目的、美国航母 “乔治.华盛顿”号是否到黄海等话题,国际社会有众多猜测。中方连续5次做出强烈表态反对美韩军演,也引起了各方的高度关注。中新网特邀国防大学战略教研部主任朱成虎少将,就该问题予以权威分析。

  对于美韩为何要举行此次军演,演习的动机何在?朱成虎说,美韩举行军演的动机很多。首先是针对朝鲜,是对朝鲜的威慑和恫吓。

  实际上,韩国在这次事件发生之后,刚开始的时候反应是不一致的。起初认为是朝鲜干的,接着他们就称也可能是自己的原因。在经过调查后,韩国认为他们有确凿的证据证明事故与朝鲜脱不了干系,但是国际社会并没有准确的定论。

  朱成虎说,美国在这次事件中发挥了非常重要的作用或者说是主导的作用,从事件一开始到最后,美国都充分利用了这样的机会。他提出了三个条件,第一是要朝鲜承认错误,第二是保证以后不再发生,第三是要朝鲜向国际社会道歉。

  最近这一段时间,朝鲜在一系列问题上似乎表现出不愿意与国际合作,所以美国决定要采取行动。另一方面也有针对中国的因素,因为事件爆发后,韩国一直想得到中国的支持。朱成虎说,我觉得中国在这个事情上的立场和政策是非常正确的,因为这是一个负责任大国应该采取的态度,如果没有证据来证明是朝鲜所为,你不能武断地决定。

  过去一段时间以来,在韩国国内,老百姓当中的反华情绪可能比过去更高一些,主要是在韩国媒体的引导下,他们认为中国政府没有配合韩国。朱成虎说,我觉得韩国的舆论可能有一些误导。

  在被问及此次美韩军演是否意在向中国施压,要向中国“喊什么话”的问题上,朱成虎表示,

  从这次演习的角度来看,谈不上练兵,因为这次军演事先并没有经过充分准备。一般情况下,像这样大规模的联合军事演习,至少要经过4个月到半年的准备,但这一次准备的时间显然非常仓促。第二,演习也没有协同的动作,因为美韩两军举行的演习很多,一年100多次。但这一次并不是计划内的演习,所以说他是练兵并不现实的,完全是为了“喊话”。

  至于此次演习与中国存在多大的关联性,朱成虎说,演习可能包含一些其他的意图。他说,最近这段时间,包括今年上半年美国防部长盖茨想到中国来访问,但被中国拒绝了,很显然美国并不高兴,特别是五角大楼。因此,利用这样一次机会来展示一下自己在亚洲地区的存或影响力,这都是可以理解的。

  朱成虎说,演习范围包含黄海海域,这就在中国的家门口,显然是要向我们炫耀武力,显示美韩之间军事联盟的巩固,所以这种迹象显然并不正常。
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