The Direction of U.S.–China Relations

Published in Nan Fang Daily
(China) on 11 August 2010
by Yi Xian (link to originallink to original)
Translated from by Rose Zu. Edited by Amy Wong.
Recently, U.S.–China relations have been rocky. There are many reasons; the U.S. adjusting its Asian strategy and the midterm congressional elections in November are among them. As the U.S. returns to Asia, it has yet to adjust to the sudden emergence of China and inevitably tries to restrain China's rise. Moreover, U.S. foreign policy has always been affected by domestic policy. The upcoming midterm elections in November are even more so the focus of each party's ability to influence the political game. Take the Yellow Sea, for example: The U.S. Armed Forces claimed that the aircraft carrier will still enter the Yellow Sea to participate in military exercises, but the date is after "several months." If the U.S. Army is more adamant, it has no need to delay for several months. Therefore, after the midterm elections in November, a change is not out of the question. Of course, neither the U.S. nor China will give up the quibble over the Yellow Sea, but there are many ways to squabble that need not involve the risk of friendly fire. This is something both sides should agree on and is a test to both sides' wisdom.

Currently, the U.S. aircraft carrier U.S.S. George Washington has already entered Vietnam's port and will hold joint military exercises with Vietnam. Adding in the nuclear problem, the intention of the U.S. to involve Vietnam is extremely obvious; Vietnam is also neatly laying itself out as America's new ally. However, when all is said and done, there is the lingering shadow of the Vietnam War between the U.S. and Vietnam, and Vietnam must consider that it shares a border with China. In this regard, the U.S. and Vietnam are simply making use of each other. In deciding which relationship — U.S.-China or U.S.-Vietnam — is more important, it can be believed that the U.S. has a pretty good idea.

A few days ago, Newsweek magazine published an article mentioning that recently, with regard to the issue of the Yellow Sea, China has been emphasizing the U.S. in its debates with other Asian countries, enabling the U.S. to play more trump cards. In the recent ASEAN Regional Forum, the U.S. played such a card, leaving China to suffer from an inferior strategy. But the games are still in progress, with Newsweek implying that they have yet to desist. Foreign Minister Alberto Rómulo of the Philippines made clear his country's position on the issue of the Yellow Sea, saying that the Yellow Sea negotiations should be between ASEAN and China and do not need the intervention of the U.S. or any other third party. Taking into account the closeness of U.S.-Filipino relations, this declaration has caused America to lose a match in the political games.

From the Yellow Sea to the South China Sea, the U.S. and China have engaged in battles of wits and might, each playing its own cards, fighting measure for measure, taking turns on advantageous ground. Seeing that Asia originally did not have a sole source of power, it has no consensus on what constitutes a common threat, and many countries previously pursued anti-alliance policies. Even now, there are many conflicts of interest, and this factor must be taken into account in America's opposing China in Asia, including cooperating with Vietnam in military affairs.

Just as some analysts claim, U.S.-China relations continue to be tense. One of the causes is the lack of strategic mutual trust, especially in military exchange and communication in other areas. Another factor is the different standpoints of both sides, creating a lack of consensus. After President Obama took office, U.S.-China relations entered a honeymoon period, but many people believe that while the Obama administration showered China with goodwill, China did not cooperate with Americans on crucial issues. To the Americans, used to being the big kid on the block, China's conduct showed a lack of respect. However, to the Chinese, answering the questions of whether or not to cooperate and the extent of cooperation starts out with the interests of their own country. China believes that some things that were unattainable in the past can now be achieved, but it is the question of why China isn't doing anything towards the latter that the Americans cannot understand, resulting in the theory of "Chinese arrogance."

Solving the issue of strategic mutual trust needs time, and both sides can, through political games and collisions, gradually adapt and get used to each other. In regards to mutual military trust, even if warmongers on both sides are hardliners, they should still sit down for a chat and not give up discussions. Talking is always better than not talking, as silence prevents mutual trust. There is no benefit to the state of affairs in the world or Asia if a military confrontation occurs between the U.S. and China, and certainly there is nothing to be gained for either country. Newsweek, while criticizing China, also concluded that China's rise will induce the U.S. to use the trump cards in its hand to renew its dealings with the world, with the possible result of realizing or maintaining a win-win situation for both the U.S. and China. If China and America cannot reach some semblance of mutual trust, emergence and fighting against emergence, restraining and fighting against restraint will become the theme of a considerably lengthy competition.

The relations between China and the U.S. involve a wide range of issues. Especially important is the trade relationship, where, despite the existence of friction, there is also sustainable growth. Other areas of contention need not become a zero-sum game.


近来中美关系摇摆不停,原因很多,美国调整亚洲战略,美国11月国会中期选举,都是原因之一。美国重返亚洲,对中国崛起的不适应,遏制之举是必然的。另外美国外交政策从来就受国内政治的影响,临近的11月中期选举,更是国内各派势力政治博弈的焦点。以黄海为例,美军宣称航母依然要进入黄海参加军演,但是日期是在“几个月”以后,如果美军更为强硬一点,完全没必要推到几个月以后。因此,过了11月中期选举,变数也不是没可能出现的。当然,中美都不会放弃在黄海的较量,但较量的方式很多,没必要一定要冒着擦枪走火的危险,这应该是双方都能认同的,也是考验双方的智慧所在。

目前美国航母乔治华盛顿号已经进入越南港口,并将与越南举行联合军演,加上核问题,美国拉拢越南的意图非常明显,越南方面也俨然以美国新盟友的姿态出现。但是美越之间毕竟有挥之不去的越战的阴影,越南也不能不考虑和中国有陆界的因素,说起来双方无非互相利用。然而中美关系和美越关系孰轻孰重,相信美国还是心中有数的。

美国《新闻周刊》日前也发表文章提到,中国最近就南海问题与亚洲其他国家争论突出了美国的形象,使美国有更多的“王牌”可出。就最近来看,美国在东盟论坛也似乎出了一张好牌,中国略逊一着。但是博弈仍然在继续,《新闻周刊》话音未落,这边菲律宾外长阿尔韦托罗幕落就南海问题表明立场,认为南海谈判应该在东盟国家和中国之间进行,不需要美国或其他任何第三方介入。以菲律宾与美国关系之密切,这一表态使美国在博弈中棋输一着。

从黄海到南海,中美双方斗智斗勇,各自出牌,针锋相对,轮番占据有利地形。鉴于亚洲本来就不存在单一的均势,对共同的威胁也从来没有过共识,好些国家曾经奉行不盟政策,目前也是各种利益交错,所以,美国在亚洲对中国出牌,包括和越南的军事合作,不能不考虑这种因素。

就如一些分析家分析的那样,中美关系近来持续紧张,究其原因,一方面还是在于缺少战略互信,尤其是军事交流滞后于其他领域的交流。另一方面在也于双方的立足点不同而缺乏共识。奥巴马总统上台后,中美有过一段蜜月时期,但是美国方面许多人认为,奥巴马政府对中国释放如此多的善意,中国却在关键问题上不和美国人合作。中国的行为,从做惯老大的美国人来看,是太不给面子了。但是从中国人来看,是否合作,合作到什么程度,主要还是从自己的国家利益出发。中国认为过去有做不到的时候,现在能做到,为什么不做,这是美国人所不能接受的,所以有“中国傲慢论”之说。

解决战略互信,需要时间,双方在不断的博弈或碰撞中慢慢适应,慢慢磨合。军事互信方面,尽管双方鹰派都很强硬,还是应当坐下来谈,不要拒绝谈,谈总比不谈好,不谈永远不会有互信。中美如果发生军事对抗,于世界局势和亚洲局势,都没有任何好处,于两国关系也没有任何好处,美国《新闻周刊》在批评中国的同时,也认为,中国的崛起会促使美国利用手中的王牌重新和世界打交道,并且,结果可能是美中两国实现或保持双赢。中美双方如果持续达不成一定的互信,崛起和反崛起,遏制和反遏制,会是相当一段时间的博弈主题。

中美两国的关系牵涉广泛的领域,经贸关系尤其重要,尽管有摩擦,也在持续发展,其他领域的竞争博弈没必要要零和。
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