Looking into the Common Interests between China and the U.S.

Published in Zaobao
(Singapore) on 28 September 2010
by (link to originallink to original)
Translated from by Alice Cwern. Edited by Alex Brewer.
Was America the mastermind behind the seizure of the Chinese captain at the Diaoyu Islands? We do not know. It does, however, reflect how much influence the U.S. has, as Japan announced the release of Captain Zhan the very next day after the Chinese and Japanese prime ministers’ separate meetings with the U.S. president. As the media was jumping for joy, and using headlines such as “Japan Gave In; Chinese Captain Returned with Glory” to report the event, it did not reflect the truth, and did nothing more than satisfy the country’s nationalist emotions.

According to reports from Japanese media, Japanese high officials, who were in New York to attend a United Nations meeting, decided to release the captain due to pressure from the U.S., without the acknowledgement of some members of the cabinet and the high officials of the ruling party. The Japanese government stated that it was a judicial decision. However, according to Sankei Shimbun, Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshito Sengoku revealed on Sept. 24, during a cabinet meeting held at the Prime Minister’s Office, that they would release the Chinese trawler captain Zhan Qixion. Sengoku also told the Ministry of Justice that they made the decision due to an order they received. The same afternoon, the Naha District Public Prosecutor’s Office in Okinawa announced the release of Zhan Qixion.

According to Senkei Simbun, the sudden change of tide was a result of the pressure given by the United States. On Sept. 23, Secretary of State Hillary Clinton met with Japanese Foreign Minister Seiji Maehara in New York. She said that the Diaoyu Islands were subject to the bilateral security treaty; however, she also urged China and Japan to resolve the issue soon, before it escalated to another level, and emphasized that the relationship between the two countries was vitally important to the regional stability in Asia and that America would like the issue to be resolved by the 24th.

The release of the Chinese fishing boat captain brought protests among those in the Japanese government. Some Japanese cabinet members thought it showed a sign of weakness to China. Five members of the House of Representatives from the ruling Democratic Party of Japan put out a joint protest, claiming that the captain of the trawler had clearly violated the laws of Japan and the termination of the investigation and the release of the suspect trampled the laws of Japan, which could not be tolerated. Other parties, such as the Liberal Democratic Party, also criticized the decision on the release, saying it was a political judgment made by Naoto Kan’s government, and they intended to bring it up at the national Diet. Masses called the Naha District Public Prosecutor’s Office directly to show their complaints. The fishermen in Okinawa showed the most concern, as they worried that a lot of Chinese fishermen would start fishing near the Diaoyu Islands. The release also weakened the power of the recently designated Prime Minister Naoto Kan; some comments suggested that his cabinet might not last long.

Why would the Naoto Kan government, under such strong pressure from public opinion in Japan, damage his political career and change their attitude toward the seizure completely after visiting the U.S.? The attitude expressed by U.S. President Barack Obama during his separate meetings with the Chinese and Japanese prime ministers seems to be the determining factor. The U.S. emphasized that they would remain neutral regarding the sovereign rights over the Diaoyu Islands and would not take part in the negotiations. Meanwhile, they also made a contradictory announcement: The alliance between the U.S. and Japan was the cornerstone of world peace, and from the State Department to the White House, they strongly encouraged dialogue between the two countries to resolve the sovereign issue. It is reasonable to believe that America’s point of view and its interference played an important role in the development of the issue.

Recently, the U.S. has performed a sequence of diplomatic actions with the intention to make a clear statement to the world that the U.S. is still the judge and leader in the political field in East Asia. It does not matter how number two and number three switch their seats; the leader is still around. The competition between China, the U.S. and Japan will be a huge challenge in intellect and patience to Beijing. In order for China to protect its interests to the maximum extent, it needs to calmly and accurately estimate the loss and gain of its foreign policy with Japan and the U.S., and set up a strategy that is unbiased and practical. Although China will rise in power dramatically within the next 30 years, it will probably take longer before it can challenge the United States. On the other hand, due to its population and limited natural resources, Japan will inevitably become a second-rate country. During the process, it will be in the interest of both China and the U.S. to keep on preventing Japan from regaining its military power. I cannot imagine the negative impact on China if America suddenly withdraws its troops in Korea and Japan, which would change the politics and stability in East Asia. Hence, it is in China’s interest to cooperate and communicate with the U.S., although it can also be a challenge.

Once China admits that the United States has supreme authority in East Asia it will be able to resolve the issues on Diaoyu Islands and Spratly Islands without a hitch. Outside its borders, it will also be able to regain the right to speak up and protect its sovereignty and establish a positive diplomatic environment.


正视中美两国的共同利益

中方船长在钓鱼岛被扣事件的肇因,是否有美国于幕后精心操控?不得而知。但詹船长于中国总理和日方首相在纽约分别跟美国总统会唔后的第二天,即被日方突然宣布释放,则肯定体现了美国的影响力。当各大媒体欢欣雀跃,以《日方低头中国船长凯旋》等特大标题报道此事件的时候,除了自我满足民族主义情绪的需求外,恐没有触及事件的真相。

  据日本媒体报道,正在纽约出席联合国会议的日本政府高层,是受到美国压力后,作出放人决定的,事前连政府内阁部分成员,以及执政民主党主要高层都不知情。日本政府指放还船长是司法决定,但据日本《产经新闻》报道,内阁官房长官仙谷由人,24日上午在首相府召集阁僚开会,透露稍后会宣布放还中国渔船船长詹其雄。仙谷还对法务相直接说,他们收到指示,而作出这个决定。而在当天下午,冲绳那霸地方检察厅就宣布决定放还詹其雄。

  日本《产经新闻》披露,事件变得峰回路转,背后与美国施压有关。在23日,美国国务卿希拉里,在纽约与日本外相前原诚司会面,希拉里虽然表示,钓鱼岛适用于《日美安保条约》,但她也说,希望中日在事态进一步升级之前,能尽快解决,强调中日关系对亚洲地区稳定十分关键,美方希望日方在24 日前解决问题。

  放还中国船长已引起日本朝野上下一片反对声。日本内阁一些阁僚认为是向中国示弱。执政民主党5名众议员就联名发表抗议谈话,主张船长明显违反了日本法律,认为放弃继续调查、放还嫌疑人是践踏日本法律,绝不能容忍。自民党等在野党纷纷提出批评,认为放还船长是菅直人政府做出的政治判断,有意在国会上严厉向政府追究责任。大批民众直接打电话去那霸检察厅抗议。最不满的是冲绳的渔民,他们担心在钓鱼岛,中国渔船将大举来到捕鱼。放还事件令刚刚才保住首相位的菅直人会变成弱势领袖,有评论已怀疑他的政府将是短命内阁。

  菅直人政府面对如此强烈的国内舆论压力,为何置自己的政治生命于不顾,对待扣押中方船长一事的态度在访美前后判若两人?美国总统奥巴马在分别会见中国总理和日本首相时,所表达的对钓鱼岛事件的态度,似乎起了决定性的作用。美国一方面强调,美国对钓鱼岛的主权,并不采取立场,不会介入调解。又同时发出看似互相矛盾的声明:美日同盟是全球安全的基石,而从白宫到国务院又都大声呼吁中国和日本透过对话解决领土争议。从事态后续的发展来看,有理由相信,美国的态度与外交斡旋对事态的演变起了至关重要性的作用。

  美国通过最近一系列的外交动作,要明确无误地告诉世界,美国依然是东亚政治的仲裁者和领导者。世界老二和老三的顺序无论如何演变,老大的身影不可或缺。中美日三国演义的战略角逐,极大地考验着北京当局的智慧和忍耐力。冷静准确地评估三国利益交错的棋局,制定符合客观实际的外交战略,将有利于中国最大限度地维护自己的国家利益。尽管中国的国家力量在未来的三十年内,将发生天翻地覆的变化,但仍然需要更长的时间,才可能有实力真正对美国构成挑战。而日本寓于人口和自然条件的限制,将无可避免地沦为二流国家。在这个过程中,继续压制日本重新武装,则是中美两国共同的战略利益。无法想象如果美军突然撤离在韩国和日本的驻军,东亚的政治和安全形势将发生怎样不利于中国的变化。因而,与美国保持必要的合作与沟通管道,是中国的国家利益所在,也是考验北京战略智慧的艰难课题。

  可以预见,一个承认美国在东亚霸权的全新中美关系,将为中国顺利解决钓鱼岛和南沙群岛争端,在国际上重新获得维护国家领土主权的话语权,奠定良好的国际环境。
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