The Obama Administration’s Period of Fiscal Woes

Published in Huanqiu
(China) on 30 September 2010
by Michael Boskin (link to originallink to original)
Translated from by Meghan McGrath. Edited by Heidi Kaufmann.
In the Sept. 29 issue of China News, the article “The Obama Administration Has Encountered a Period of Fiscal Woes” stated that this summer Obama encountered a series of financial setbacks; yet, according to the government’s actions in recent months, it appears they have not learned their lesson. On the one hand, Obama's administration has continued the fiscal stimulus program, not long after it was rejected by the leaders of many foreign nations. At the same time, increasing government expenditure has brought about strong opposition in the American voters. My analytical opinion is that come this November's midterm elections, Democrats — because of Barack Obama's continued fiscal stimulus problem — will encounter a crushing defeat.

Article excerpts are as follows:

This summer, Obama hit a series of financial setbacks. But has the government learned any lessons in recent months?

First of all, at the G-20 Summit in Canada, the president again pitched the proposal of more fiscal stimulus (i.e., more government spending), and once again it was rejected by many foreign leaders. At the summit, Obama said that next year he will take steps to severely cut the current deficit. But that is easier said than done. So far, he runs counter to his strategy of reducing the deficit by adding new items of expenditure. While you want to worry about the deficit and debt, Obama is calling for tax increases that may even include European-style value-added tax.

But the American electorate does not want to sell our debt. So left-leaning political figureheads and the majority of political commentators find it unexpected that people do not want an increase in government expenditure. Instead, people are strongly opposed to the federal government’s expenditure and the collection of deficits and debt.

Most political forecasters believe that in this November's midterm elections, Democrats will face defeat because of this problem. Voters want to reduce spending, not increase taxes. They think the main reason the U.S. economy is better than that of Western Europe is because the U.S.' expense ratio is relatively small.

Second, the International Monetary Fund suggests that the U.S. government increase efforts to reduce the budget deficit by more than the original target of 3 percent (GDP) — an increase of the amount of deficit reduction by more than $400 billion (U.S.) per year. The International Monetary Fund believes that the current financial plan will hinder the economy's recovery.

America's major trading partners hope that the U.S. economy will grow and that Americans continue to buy their exports. In the national economic recovery, the U.S. government’s massive borrowing in turn restricts the capacity to offer both government and private loans. In short, the world’s other countries want the United States to fix their finances as soon as possible.

Third, the administration released its annual medium-term fiscal new report. The report forecasts the financial deficit to increase exponentially. Among solutions proposed in the report is that the committee balance the main deficit by 2015 (i.e., get rid of all the interest collected from the deficit).

Fourth, with only a few weeks before the midterm elections, Obama announced a series of new stimulus plans. His political opponents quickly criticized Obama's move as equivalent to recognizing the failure of his first stimulus plan. One of the new proposals is to allow immediate preferential tax cuts for capital investments. This should immediately be made a permanent business taxation reform, but Obama set the deadline for this proposal at one year, in order to promote business capital expenditure in 2011.

So who will be able to advise Obama through the heap of high deficits and debt to pay for a significant portion of the deficit, when opinions on government expenditure are extremely low, when costs are higher than benefits and when raising taxes could have a detrimental effect on the economy?

We can only hope that the current issue of reducing the deficit will get a lot of discussion. Voters can always find the means to hold elected officials responsible for their own public statements. Otherwise, we cannot expect political leaders to have the courage to carry out drastic reforms. Fortunately, American voters seem to see farther than the politicians.


中新网9月29日电 新加坡《联合早报》29日刊文《奥巴马艰难的财政之夏》。文章说,奥巴马政府在这个夏季遭遇到了一系列的财政挫折,但是政府在最近几个月的经历中似乎并没有吸取任何教训。一方面奥巴马政府采取了背道而驰的策略,继续出台财政刺激方案,随后遭多国领导人拒绝。另一方面,增加政府开支的做法遭到了美国选民的强烈反对。分析认为,在今年11月份的中期选举中,民主党人将会由于奥巴马政府的财政计划问题而遭遇惨败。


  文章摘编如下:


  奥巴马政府在这个夏季遭遇了一系列财政挫折。但政府是否在最近几个月的经历中吸取了任何教训呢?


  首先,在加拿大的G20峰会上,奥巴马总统要求再次出台财政刺激方案(即更多的政府开支)的提议被多国领导人拒绝。在峰会上,奥巴马说他将在明年提出严厉的赤字削减措施。但是说的总比做的容易。到目前为止,奥巴马政府采取了背道而驰的策略,全力增加新开支项目,而与此同时,则希望对赤字和债务的担忧,会让增加税收的呼声上涨,甚至可能包括征收欧洲式的增值税。


  但是美国选民也并不卖账。让政治上左倾的人士和大多数评论专家感到意外的,是人们并没有要求大幅扩大政府开支。相反的,人们强烈反对联邦政府频繁的开支、赤字以及债务。


  大多数政治预测人士认为,在今年11月份的中期选举中,民主党人将会由于此问题遭遇惨败。选民要减少开支,而不是增加税收。他们认为美国经济优于西欧经济的主要原因是因为政府开支相对较小。


  其次,国际货币基金组织建议美国政府加大力度,把削减财政赤字的目标提高到比原先计划的多3%(GDP)——即增加削减赤字的数额为每年超过4000亿美元。国际货币基金组织相信,目前的财政计划将阻碍美国经济的发展。


  美国的主要贸易伙伴希望美国的经济能增长,能继续购买它们的出口商品。在这些国家经济复苏时,美国政府大规模的借贷同样会让它们的政府和私人借贷者失去借贷空间。简而言之,世界上的其他国家都希望美国能尽快整顿好自己的财政。


  第三,奥巴马政府发布了它的年度中期财政新报告。报告预计财政赤字将会巨幅增长。报告中提议的解决方案是:由一个委员会提出于2015年平衡基本赤字 (即没有包括利息的赤字)的方案。


  第四,在距离中期选举还有几个星期的时候,奥巴马宣布一系列新的刺激方案。他的政治对手很快就批评说,此举等同承认第一次刺激计划失效了。方案中的一个提议是让资本投资能立即获得减税优惠,这早就应该列为永久的公司税收改革的一部分方案,但奥巴马却把此优惠的限期定为一年,以促使企业在2011年继续进行资本开支。


  那么谁将能劝告奥巴马,通过堆高财政赤字和债务来为大幅扩张的支出买单是不利的经济决策,代价可能比收到的利益更多;而增加税收会对经济造成永久性的破坏呢?


  我们只能希望这次关于收缩赤字的言论能得到大量的讨论。选民们总有办法让当选的官员们为自己的公开言论负责。若非如此,我们就不能期待政治领袖有勇气进行大刀阔斧的改革。幸运的是,美国选民似乎比政客们看得更远。(迈克尔·波斯金)
This post appeared on the front page as a direct link to the original article with the above link .

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