We Cannot Let the Diaoyu Islands Become America’s Pawn

Published in Sina
(China) on 30 September 2010
by Geng Xin (link to originallink to original)
Translated from by Alice Cwern. Edited by Alex Brewer.
The dispute over the Diaoyu Islands can be traced to three sources. The first is based on the historical records of the Ming dynasty during the late 19th century. The second is based on historical documents such as the Cairo Declaration from the World War II era. The most important event happened in the early 1970s, when the “Baodiao Movement” (literally movement defending the Diaoyu Islands) opened up a new chapter in the dispute. The two previous sources of the dispute only gained attention when the movement started. Hence, “Baodiao” was the real historical beginning of the dispute over the Diaoyu Islands.

The “Baodiao movement” revealed three basic facts to us: first of all, America was the creator of the Diaoyu Islands dispute, and it was essentially a violation of China’s sovereignty. Second of all, it showed us the basic philosophy of America’s strategy in East Asia at the time: “to cause divisions in the relationship between China and Japan.” As the dispute of the Diaoyu Islands could not be resolved quickly, and the friction between the two countries would become chronic yet not enough to start a war, it was a perfect strategy for America in East Asia. The third fact, however, could not have been predicted by the Americans: as the Taiwanese interests were harmed, they reacted vigorously to the issue and brought up a huge debate; it also led to a new path of communication between Chinese and Taiwanese high officials.

Whether it was America’s intention or not, the Diaoyu Islands gave America three hefty presents: first, the Diaoyu Islands are now part of America’s strategy as an important blockade to China’s expansion in the sea. Second of all, when U.S. ceded the sovereign right of Ryūkyū Islands along with the Diaoyu Islands to Japan in the 1970s, it established Japan’s claim to those islands and planted a landmine in the relationship between China and Japan, making it difficult for the two countries to build a cooperative relation that is stronger than Japan’s relationship with America. These are the two outcomes that America wanted, and they have already become realities.

The third gift, however, was not what America wanted: although the dispute over the Diaoyu Island instigated the tense relationship between China and Japan, it also promoted the cross-strait relations. Since the signing of the Economic Cooperation Framework Agreement (ECFA), America has been worrying if the Diaoyu Islands would become a platform for the two countries to establish a positive interaction politically and militarily. Moreover, the “Baodiao movement” also evoked Chinese resentment and criticisms toward America’s invasive strategy in the past 100 years.

These three sources, step by step, are becoming part of history and are also a complex chain of logic. America and all the countries involved have gained some and lost some, and all are in a complicated game over profit and power. America is the originator of all these. Through the dispute of the Diaoyu Islands, the U.S. intends to fulfill its goal in East Asia of containing China’s development and its relations with Japan. The calculation seems to be impeccable, but the risk was also high. Taiwan is a pawn the U.S. been playing for many years; it has been more effective in containing China than Japan to some extent. If this pawn is lost, it may cause America’s strategy in East Asia to lose its balance. Within Taiwan, there are debates over the dispute of the Diaoyu Islands: Lee Teng-Hui’s belief of Japan’s sovereignty, Kuomintang’s belief of China’s sovereignty and DPP’s belief about Taiwan’s sovereignty. If Taiwan suppresses the differences within and builds up a positive interaction and relation with the mainland, it will be a nightmare for America. If the dispute of the Diaoyu Islands continues on, America may become the biggest loser.

The dispute brings America benefit, but it also contains risks. Japan is also in the same boat; it receives benefits from America’s support but has to be under America’s supervision and obey America strategy. China is also in a messy situation: it must realize America’s role in the dispute of Diaoyu Islands in order to maintain both its relations with America and its foreign policy toward Japan. Earlier in history, Deng Xiaoping’s strategy of putting America aside gave the relationship between China and Japan a chance for improvement.

International relations have always been in proportion, and, so far, America is leading in the game in the dispute of the Diaoyu Islands. In order to gain the most out of this messy situation, one must keep his or head up and look far ahead. It is like playing chess: whoever can read the upcoming moves has the advantage. Today, both Taiwan and China are qualified to compete against America. Japan used to show signs of ability but fell into America’s trap this time around. From now on, both China and Japan should work hard on becoming real dominant countries and be independent without becoming America’s pawns.


庚欣:不能让钓鱼岛成为美国的棋子

钓鱼岛风波有三个起点,一是源于明代或19世纪末叶的史料起点。二是二战结束前后由开罗宣言等重要史实构成的文献起点。但最重要的还是上世纪70年代初,以海外“保钓运动”揭开的新篇章。前两个起点,正是因为“保钓”才开始引人注目。因此,“保钓”才是“钓鱼岛风波”真正的历史起点。

  “保钓运动”向我们揭示了三个基本事实:第一,钓鱼岛问题完全是美国一手造成的,本质上是美国对中国主权的侵犯。第二,这是美国当时东亚战略中的基本思路———“分化中日”。尤其类似钓鱼岛这种既不能马上解决,又不会引发重大战事的“慢性摩擦”,正合美国在东亚的战略利益,其力度也恰到好处。第三却是美国始料未及的,即台湾民众利益受到伤害并激起强烈反映,造成重大争议,并由此为两岸高层及民间的沟通开启了一条新路。

  无论美国当初是否有意而为,美国都从钓鱼岛得到了有足够份量的三份遗产∶第一,在中国走向海洋的进程中,钓鱼岛成为美国重要的战略屏障。第二,上世纪70年代初美国将琉球行政主权移交日本时,一并将钓鱼岛列屿的管辖权也交给日本。这既带动了日本在上述岛链中的作用,又在中日关系中埋下了一枚地雷,并使中日很难建立超越美国的合作关系。这两条是美国愿意看到的,也是它已经看到的事实。

  第三份遗产是美国不愿意看到的,即钓鱼岛虽然挑拨了中日关系,但却促进了台海两岸关系的发展。特别在两岸签署《经济合作框架协议》(ECFA) 之际,美国最担心的就是以后两岸是否会在政治、军事上良性互动,钓鱼岛实际上就是为两岸铺设的一个平台。不仅如此,“保钓运动”还引发了两岸尤其民间对美国百年侵华政策的不满与批判,这是美国人始料不及的。

  上述三条由浅入深,是一个历史的演变过程,也是一个复杂的逻辑链条。美国及所有当事方在其中都有得有失,都处在一个多重利益交错、多种力量制衡的复杂博弈之中。始作俑者是美国。美国希望通过钓鱼岛,一手遏制中国发展,一手控制中日关系的进程,达到自己在东亚的战略目的。看起来利益很大,盘算很精,但其中风险也不小。台湾这个战略棋子是美国经营多年的,它对中国的制约作用在某种程度上比日本还大。如果失去台湾,可能导致美国整个东亚战略失衡。从台湾岛内来看,有关钓鱼岛本来就有李登辉的“日本属地”、国民党的“中华属地”及民进党的“台湾属地”之争,如果岛内为形成共识压住内部的“统独”之争,真与大陆出现良性互动与感情磨合,那对美国无异于一场噩梦。因此,如钓鱼岛事态真僵持下去,可能更大的输家是美国。

  可见,美国在从钓鱼岛获利的同时,必须担负其中的风险。日本也是同样,从美国的支持中获利,但也要受控于美国,服从美国战略意图。中国也面对错综纷繁的乱局∶一是要维护中美关系,但必须看清美国与钓鱼岛的本质联系;第二是对日关系,邓小平当年大手笔,提出“搁置”,把美国晾在一边,中日就迎来了一个发展良机。

  国际关系历来是相对的,目前中美日在钓鱼岛的大博弈中,这个回合美国似乎得分稍多。如何从乱局中寻找自身的最大利益,关键看谁站得高,看得远,犹如下棋,多看出一步棋就会占上风。今天我们都有能力做一个合格的棋手,与美国公开博弈、合理竞争。本来日本已经出现了这样的苗头,谁知这次还是跌入了美国的圈套。今后,中日都应努力成为真正的大国,有自己的独特作为,不做美国的棋子。▲(作者是日本JCC新日本研究所副所长。)
This post appeared on the front page as a direct link to the original article with the above link .

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