Caesar’s Mask: Obama Scrambling Through Red Waves

Published in China Times
(China) on 4 November 2010
by Wang Jiangzhuang (link to originallink to original)
Translated from by James Don. Edited by Amy Wong.
As predicted by various polls before the midterm election, the Democrats were defeated, and the red wave swept the states. Obama, who was pushed into the White House by the people's will, is now scrambling through red waves.

After Obama was elected as president, the Democrats' brain bank predicted that in the coming four decades, the presidency would be in the hand of the Democrats. However, in only two years, the House of Representatives has been handed over to the Republicans. To add salt onto the wound, the two parties share power in Washington. The wake-up call interrupted the Democrats' nice dreams. But how did the Democrats degrade so soon? Why was the popular president deserted by the voters? Why did Americans not give a damn about the warnings that to split is to lose? And more importantly, why the tea party?

The sole answer to so many questions is desperation, downright desperation. Obama promised changes, but over the past two years people have not felt any. The soaring unemployment rate is concrete evidence. However, Obama defended that he had a lot things in store for the states, like saving the economy, Wall Street and the auto industry, and advocating healthcare for all and supervision of the financial industry. But why do the masses think that those changes are not enough to improve their livelihood? In the polls prior to election, why did 80 percent of people think that Obama is going down the wrong road toward reform?

Obama's reform followed the Democrats’ fundamental beliefs, which went in the opposite direction of the people's ideal of small government and low taxation. According to the poll, 22 percent of voters claimed to be liberals, 32 percent conservatives and 44 percent moderates; that means 76 percent of voters are moderates or conservatives. However, Obama has chosen a liberal road. The ruling party and the president ignored the composition of voters and set the wrong priorities in terms of policymaking. For example, they placed universal healthcare before promoting employment and pushed the disgruntled public to the peak of its anger during the midterm elections.

The tea party is the biggest beneficiary of the disgruntled public. Without a national leader, the loosely organized party leeched onto the Republicans to sweep across the country in the election. Those tea party members in the Republican suite will become key players. This new force will impact Washington politics significantly; the fighting among parties will inevitably heat up.

On the political spectrum, the tea party is the right wing of the Republicans. Being the most conservative, they defeated many moderate opponents in the Republican primary elections and then won the midterm election over moderate Democratic candidates. This brought the tradition of moderation as a virtue to an end. In the future, both houses of Congress will be dominated by the extremely conservative and liberal, without a sign of moderation.

In Clinton's first term, the Republicans controlled Congress. The White House and Congress stood up to each other and even brought the federal government to a halt. However, the fight brought more votes to Clinton and eventually led to his re-election. This time is different, though. The tea party has sworn that it will never compromise with the White House and will not give Obama one more term. It's foreseeable that even if Obama offers an olive branch after he wins a second term, the conflicts between the two parties will be more intense than ever and even worse than shutting down the federal government. Clurman predicted that historians will label this election as an American disaster.

Obviously, the victim most hurt by this election is Obama. He turned a new page of the history books, but he's turned over so soon. He promised to change the tone of Washington politics, but he was eventually changed by politics. During the election he heard a lot of voices: "Turn the government over to Americans!" and "March to Washington, and take our government back!" Most of those voices were from the tea party, but since he was sworn in, he has failed to solve the racial problems plaguing America, which fueled more political hatred.

"We have heard the people's voice." is something said by most politicians after they are elected. But what Obama hears now worries him a lot. "God bless America," a columnist quipped. I suppose this must be Obama’s current state of mind.


 一如选前各项民调所预测,美国民主党在期中选举大败,红色浪潮席卷各州,两年前曾被民意浪潮推进白宫的欧巴马,现在却在反扑的浪潮中载浮载沉。

 欧巴马当选总统后,民主党策士曾经预言,未来四十年,华府都将是民主党天下,但结果才短短两年,众议院就陷入共和党之手,在宾夕法尼亚大道两端,两党分治华府,分裂的国会加上分裂的政府,彻底惊醒了民主党完全执政的美梦。

 但民主党为什么这么快就走到这种地步?为什么两年前声望如日中天的总统,这么快就被选民唾弃?为什么多数美国民众不担心许多人选前的警告:「分裂,就是失败」?更重要的是,为什么多数选民会让极右的茶党在这次选举中成为最大赢家?

 这么多为什么的答案,其实只有一个:失望,而且是彻底的失望。欧巴马承诺要带来改变,但两年来多数人却感受不到任何改变,居高不下将近百分之十的失业率,就是改变的具体反证。

 但欧巴马却自认做了许多事,包括救经济,救华尔街,救汽车工业,推动史上第一次的全民健保与金融监理等等,何以多数民众仍会认为这些改变并非改变,而且更无益于他们的生活改善?何以选前民调中,有八成左右的人认为欧巴马的改革走错了方向?

 欧巴马的改革走的是民主党的基本路线,但选前各项民调却发现,多数民众要的是小政府、低税负。而且根据调查,美国选民中有两成二自认是自由派,三成二自认是保守派,四成四自认是中间温和派,也就是说,有七成六左右的选民属于中间偏右,但欧巴马改革走的却是偏左路线。执政党与总统无视于选民结构,而造成政策优先顺位的排序错误,比方说,把全民健保置于创造就业之前,其结果当然就是民怨的沸腾,并在这次选举时一举爆发。

 茶党在这次选举中就是这股民怨的最大获利者。茶党虽然组织松散,也没有全国性领导人,但他们借壳共和党参选,却在各地都能带动风潮,美国虽是两党政治,但「共和党其名,茶党其实」的那些新任参众议员,却将成为国会山庄的关键第三势力。

 这股新兴势力对华府政治的最大影响是:政党政治将更趋极端化,政党斗争也会更加白热化。

 在政治光谱上,茶党是共和党的右翼,属于极右保守派,他们在共和党党内初选时,打败了许多温和派的党内参选人,接著又在大选时打败了温和派的民主党候选人,一路过关斩将,斩的都是两党的温和派,也斩断了「温和即是美德」的国会传统,未来参众两院议员不是极右就是极左,温和派几已凋零殆尽。

 柯林顿第一任时,白宫与共和党控制的国会两极对立,并且一度造成许多联邦机构的暂停运作,但共和党过度对抗的结果,却造成民意强烈反弹,反而让柯林顿赢得连任。但茶党在选前即已扬言绝不跟白宫妥协,也绝不让欧巴马有连任机会,可以想见选后即使欧巴马伸出和解之手,但以反欧巴马起家的茶党,在大举进占国会山庄后,唯一的使命就是把总统拉下马来,两党的冲突只会更多不会更少,甚至多到比联邦机构关门更严重的地步,也不足为奇,难怪克鲁曼会说:「未来史家回顾这场选举,一定会以『美国的灾难』视之。」

 当然,这次选举的最大受害者是欧巴马。他虽曾改写历史,但他自己的历史却那么快就被人改写;他虽曾矢言改变华府政治,但最后仍被华府政治改变;更让他难以释怀的是,在竞选过程中,他听到太多类似这样的声音:「我们要把美国政府交还给美国人民」,「我们要进军华府,把我们的政府拿回来」,这些声音虽然多数出自茶党之口,但显然他入主白宫后,并未消弭种族问题,反而激化了更多仇恨政治的滋长。

 「我们听到了人民的声音」,这是政客在选后常挂在嘴边的口头禅,但欧巴马听到的声音却让他忧心忡忡,就像有位专栏作家对这次选举的评语「天佑合众国」一样,欧巴马现在的心情想必也是如此。(作者为中国时报前社长)
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