The United States Economy Will Take Seven Years to Recover

Published in Zaobao
(Singapore) on 4 November 2010
by Mai Chen (link to originallink to original)
Translated from by Stacy Wong. Edited by Andysheh Dadsetan.
Although the United States is struggling with its liquidity crisis, it did not resort to quantitative easing to alleviate its situation because it has been learned from Japan and England that quantitative easing does not benefit the economy in the short term [Editor’s note: Quantitative easing is a monetary policy used by some central banks to increase the supply of money by increasing the excess reserves of the banking system, generally through buying of the central government’s own bonds to stabilize or raise their prices and thereby lower long-term interest rates].

Economists calculated that even though the present implementation of quantitative easing managed to increase the wealth effect of stocks and assets, this also represented a 0.25 percent in the country’s GDP. Besides, this measure will not have a significant effect on the current falling property prices, nor will it help banks and large enterprises that manage large sums of funds or smaller banks that provide loans to smaller businesses.

The United States’ economy is facing a debt crisis and, because of that, Americans do not dare to consume or buy properties. There is only hope for recovery of the economy if the United States absolves most of its debt.

When will that happen? In seven years! The United States is a Christian nation that absolves its debts every seven years. This is stipulated in its legislation, though it has indirectly encouraged violations. When that time finally arrives, Americans can resume their consumption and purchase properties again. Jobs will also be created — most of the unemployed in the United States are represented by those who belong to the real estate and financial sectors, as well as youths who find recruitment difficult (further evidence of structural unemployment).

No one will absolve the American government of its debt. In fact, the interest on the national debt that the United States has accumulated constituted 30 percent of federal expenses in the recent financial crisis. This is because Americans and businesses are insured by the government. As such, the United States can only print money and implement quantitative easing, so that the American dollar will continue to be devalued. If the American currency devalues by 50 percent in 10 years, then its debt will be halved. The amount of American dollar reserves that China has will also be halved!

With regard to the current quantitative easing approach, the currency of more developed nations has appreciated the least. Out of all the countries that have experienced currency appreciation, China has appreciated the least, but has increased its competitiveness significantly. Since Japan, Taiwan and other Southeast Asian economies maintain a stronger control over their currencies; their currencies have also appreciated minimally. As a result of the current quantitative easing strategy, the price of bulk products has risen, causing demand-pull inflation. Hence, China can only gradually increase their currency and interest rates to curb this inflation.

China wants to establish a global market, and enterprises across the world all said that they would want to produce in China. In these seven years, the United States can only develop its external market and hope that China will accept more of its exports. The United States is more receptive of Chinese students immigrating to the United States or going there to pursue their studies. In fact, the number of Chinese voters has increased by 40 percent in the past few years. These Chinese residents purchase American houses, pay international tuition fees and still maintain economic relations with China, even after immigration, so as to help the exports of small and medium enterprises.


美国经济恢复要7年左右
美国经济在流动性陷阱中挣扎,几次量化宽松都没有用,日本和英国 对美国是前车之鉴,量化宽松短期内对经济没有多大用处,经济学家计算本 次量 化宽松提高股票资产时财富效应,只增加消费占GDP的0.25%,而且目前 对不断下跌房地产市场没有作用,大银行和大企业有巨额现金,为小企业贷款 的州小银行,没什么帮助 。
  美国经济面临着债务危机, 债务危机下,美国人不敢买房和消费, 如果 美国免除大部份债务, 美国经济才有可能恢复。
什么时候呢? 7年! 美国是一个基督教国家, 每7年免除债务, 美国法律 也是这样规定,虽然这助长了违约。 到时候, 美国人又可以买房和买昂贵消费品, 就有可能恢复就业-美国失业者主要是房地产和金融业,还有年青人找工作困难,有结构性失业 。
  美国政府的债务,没有人会免, 美国国债利息占了政府支出的3成,最近金融危机下,美国人和企业债务基本上由政府担保。美国只能印钱, 用量化宽松政策,美元会不断贬值,如果10年贬一倍,债务缩小了一半。中国美元储备也小了一半!
  这次,量化宽松,比较强的国家货币升值最小, 各国货币升值,中国是升值幅度最小的,相对竞争力反而提高。日本,台湾等东亚经济体都对货币控制力较强,升值不高。在这次量化宽松之下, 大宗商品价格提高,推动通货膨胀率,中国只能逐步把人民币升值,加息抗通货膨胀。
  中国要建立世界大市场,世界企业都说要为中国生产,美国这7年只能发展外需,希望向中国更多出口。美国对中国到美国留学和移民比较欢迎, 美国华人选民这几年增加了40%, 他们购买美国住房,付学费, 移民之后和中国经济联系密切,协助中小企业出口。
  广州 麦辰
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