U.S., Europe, Russia: Trial of Strength in Lisbon

Published in Xinhua
(China) on 21 November 2010
by Ding Yuanhong (link to originallink to original)
Translated from by Lisa Ferguson. Edited by Mark DeLucas.
On Nov. 20, NATO and Russia held the NATO-Russia Council Summit meeting in Portugal’s capital city, Lisbon. The leaders of each NATO member country, including American President Obama, were in attendance, as well as Russian President Dmitry Medvedev. That day, at the NATO-Russia Council Summit meeting, NATO and Russian representatives deliberated on Afghanistan, the European missile defense system and other such issues.

The NATO Summit and the NATO-Russia Council Summit were held from Nov. 19 through 20 in Lisbon. Meanwhile, three separate summit meetings were held between the U.S. and Europe, the U.S. and Russia, and Europe and Russia. The simultaneous convention of such intensive summit meetings is a rare sight in the history of European relations, both accentuating and reflecting the tangled and complicated relationship between the U.S., Europe and Russia and the intense game revolving around the important issue of Europe’s security.

NATO’s eastward expansion and its guided missile defense are two big, controversial issues in European security that the U.S., Europe and Russia are all involved in. The U.S. has used NATO’s expansion east to nibble away at the scope of Russia’s power, and the missile defense system has exerted unceasing pressure on Russia; this caused tension in U.S.-European relations lasting up until the 2008 conflict between Russia and Georgia. This state of affairs has triggered dissatisfaction with the U.S. among Germany, France and other main powers of the European Union. After taking office, President Obama, from the standpoint of America’s global strategic considerations, set out to “restart” U.S.-Russian relations, postponing NATO’s process of expanding eastward and changing how the issue of the guided missile defense system was handled. The guided missile defense system covering all of Europe, which NATO has acted to create, includes Russia, so as to eliminate the country’s misgivings. According to reports, establishing the system will take over 10 years, called by Western media “the phased adaptive approach,” beginning first with the deployment of sea-based “shield” guided missiles, followed a few years later by the transition to land-based SM-3 guided missiles.

The only real result of this intensive NATO summit was the passage of NATO’s New Strategic Concept. This document basically adopts and absorbs a report drafted by a group of experts headed by former U.S. Secretary of State Madeline Albright. At its core, it reaffirms Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty, which explains clearly the undertaking of “collective security” concerning member countries, while at the same time admitting that a military attack on NATO’s boundaries, in the traditional sense, is unlikely to happen. The security threats that NATO member countries now face are of a nontraditional sort: terrorism, countries with weapons of mass destruction, the breakdown of the global supply chain, cyber attacks and so on. To sum up, the new strategic concept declares that the role NATO faces has already changed, yet it avoids any clear-cut explanation of NATO’s characteristics going forward, because on this issue, fundamental differences of opinion between the U.S. and its allies, such as Germany, remain.

NATO was originally established on the premise that the U.S. would provide nuclear protection to other member nations. After President Obama introduced the “nuclear-free world” slogan last year, some countries, led by Germany, demanded that the U.S. withdraw some 200 tactical nuclear weapons from Germany, the Netherlands, Belgium, Italy and Turkey — a demand which, if realized, would effectively spell the end of NATO’s role as a nuclear military alliance. Ultimately, both sides agreed upon the following: that the U.S. must promise to reduce the number of nuclear weapons within NATO’s borders, that the function of nuclear weapons in NATO must be decreased, and that NATO must commence arms control negotiations with Russia. Meanwhile, NATO would remain nuclearized within the New Strategic Concept.

On the question of NATO’s expansion eastward, the U.S. and other allies aver, on the one hand, that NATO should continue to maintain an “open policy” on admitting new member nations. But on the other hand, they explain to Russia that it will still be a long time before Georgia can meet the requirements to join NATO, and that it is also uncertain whether the Ukraine is to join, thereby attempting to pacify Russia's indignation.

On the issue of the missile defense system, in reality, the Obama administration has merely dished up the same old position in a new form. Using America’s established missile defense system as its core, it reintegrates NATO’s present guided missile system, allowing NATO to take the lead in establishing the so-called “European Missile Defense System,” which will cover all of Europe. The Obama administration has invited Russia to participate in an attempt to guard against a Russian backlash.

Nevertheless, in regard to the U.S. government’s new approach to the questions of NATO’s eastward expansion and its establishment of the missile defense system, Russia is clearly on its guard. While expressing both “welcome” and “interest,” Russia is not in a hurry to make any promises, but is instead in the midst of haggling, cautiously weighing the pros and cons, while it continues to deal with the U.S. Thus, on the question of bilateral cooperation, this meeting was highly unlikely to achieve a breakthrough.

According to NATO, the most pressing issue is the discouraging situation in Afghanistan. This year there have been over 600 casualties among allied forces — the most deaths per year since 2001, when U.S. troops invaded Afghanistan. Under these circumstances, European allies are hindered by the domestic pressure of constant disagreement over whether to send more troops to Afghanistan. The difference of opinion and disagreement between the U.S. and NATO on the Afghanistan issue is the biggest bilateral dispute in the area of security. If NATO’s allied troops end up failing in Afghanistan, it would be fatal not only to President Obama’s political future, but also to the fate of NATO. The Afghanistan issue occupied a prominent position in both the NATO summit and U.S.-Europe summit, but no headway was made.

The issue of European security concerns the safety of the U.S., Europe and Russia. It also speaks to Europe's leadership role in political affairs. No one is willing to yield easily. Since the strategic objectives of each of the three are at odds, reaching a compromise on the major question concerning the safety of each is not an easy thing to do. The wrestling match among the three over European security will undoubtedly persist.

Ding Yuangong is China's former ambassador to the EU.


美欧俄角力里斯本
2010年11月21日 10:43:40  来源: 解放日报

11月20日,在葡萄牙首都里斯本,北约与俄罗斯举行北约和俄罗斯理事会首脑会议,包括美国总统奥巴马在内的北约各国首脑以及俄罗斯总统梅德韦杰夫出席了本次会议。当天,北约和俄罗斯理事会首脑会议在里斯本举行,北约与俄罗斯代表在会上商讨阿富汗、欧洲反导系统等问题。 新华社记者王庆钦摄

  11月19日至20日在里斯本举行了北约峰会以及北约和俄罗斯理事会首脑会议。与此同时,还举行了美欧、美俄、欧俄三组峰会。同时召开如此密集的峰会,在欧洲关系史上是罕见的,它突出地折射了美欧俄三方错综复杂的关系和围绕欧洲安全这一重大问题的激烈博弈。

  北约东扩和导弹防御是美欧俄三方之间涉及欧洲安全的两大争议问题。由于美国以北约东扩的方式蚕食俄罗斯势力范围,又借助反导系统向俄不断施压,使得美俄关系持续紧张,直至2008年发生俄格冲突。这一事态也引发需要改善同俄关系的德、法等欧盟主要大国对美的不满。奥巴马总统上台后,从美全球战略考虑出发,“重启”美俄关系,为此暂缓北约东扩进程,并在导弹防御问题上改变做法,由北约出面建立涵盖全欧的导弹防御系统,包括俄罗斯在内,借以消除俄的疑虑。据称,建立这一系统将历时10年以上,先部署海基“神盾”式导弹,几年后再过渡到部署陆基SM—3型导弹,被西方媒体称之为“分阶段适应性方案”。

  这次密集峰会取得的唯一实际成果,就是北约峰会通过了北约战略新概念。这份文件基本上是采纳、吸收美国前国务卿奥尔布赖特为首的专家组起草的报告。它的核心是重申 《北大西洋公约》第5条阐明的关于成员国“集体安全”的承诺,同时承认发生传统意义上的对北约边界的军事进攻已不大可能,北约成员国现在面临的威胁多属于非传统安全范畴,如恐怖主义、拥有大规模杀伤性武器的国家、全球供应线路遭到破坏、网络袭击等等。总之,战略新概念申明北约面临的任务已发生变化,但回避对今后的北约属性作出明确的说明,因为在这一问题上美国同其主要盟国(如德国等)存在着根本分歧。

  北约本来是建立在美国向其他成员国提供核保护基础之上的。在奥巴马总统去年提出“无核世界”的口号后,以德国为首的几个国家公开要求美国从德、荷、比、意、土五国撤出其部署的约200件战术核武器,这无异于将美国的军,而且也是动摇北约是有核军事联盟的属性,因而在北约内部引发激烈争执。最后,在美国不得不承诺将减少北约境内的核武器数量、降低核武器在北约中的作用以及制定北约今后同俄罗斯开展军控谈判的计划,双方这才达成妥协,使得在战略新概念中,北约拥核的属性得以保持下来。

  在北约东扩问题上,美国及其盟国一面申明北约对于接纳新成员继续持“开放政策”,一面向俄方说明格鲁吉亚达到加入北约的要求还有很长时间,而乌克兰是否加入北约还属未定之事,企图借此平息俄罗斯的愤怒。

  在反导问题上,奥巴马政府采取的实际上是“改头换面”的手法,以美国拟建立的反导系统为核心,将北约目前的导弹系统重新整合,改为由北约牵头建立覆盖全欧的所谓“欧洲导弹防御系统”,邀俄罗斯参与其中,企图以此防止俄罗斯的反弹。

  对于美国政府在北约东扩和建立反导系统两大问题上的新做法,俄罗斯心知肚明,既表示“欢迎”、“有兴趣”,又不急于作出承诺,而是在讨价还价中谨慎衡量得失利弊,并坚持与美国周旋。因此,这次会议在双方合作问题上没有也不可能取得突破性进展。

  对北约来说,形势不妙的阿富汗战争是最为紧迫的问题。今年北约联军伤亡超过600人,是2001年美军入侵阿富汗以来伤亡最多的一年。在这一形势下,欧洲盟国碍于国内压力,执意不肯再增兵阿富汗。美国同其北约盟国在阿富汗问题上的分歧与争执是双方在安全领域的最大争议。如阿富汗战争以北约联军的失败告终,不仅对奥巴马总统的政治前途,而且对北约今后的命运都将是致命一击。这次北约峰会和美欧峰会上,阿富汗问题都占据突出的位置,但未能取得进展。

  欧洲安全问题关于美、欧、俄三方各自的安危,也影响到欧洲事务的主导权,谁也不肯轻易让步。由于三方所持的战略目标相左,在事关各自安危的重大问题上作出妥协,并非易事。三方围绕欧洲安全的角力无疑将会持续下去。(中国前驻欧盟大使 丁原洪)
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