In East Asia, China and America Are Not in Competition

Published in Zaobao
(Singapore) on 29 November 2010
by Li Yincai (link to originallink to original)
Translated from by Qu Xiao. Edited by Hoishan Chan.
Sino-U.S. relations recently show no obvious sign for a better turn, even though a visit to America from Chinese President Hu Jintao is due in January. In Washington, after taking control of Congress, the Republicans are pressing the U.S. government to adopt a tougher China policy. A report published by U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission has criticized China’s economic and defense policy. The report said that China’s air force and modern missiles have increased its ability to pose a military threat to the Pacific region, and China’s exclusiveness of its trade policy is to blame for America’s huge trade deficit, hence suggesting that the Treasury Department should list China as a currency manipulator.

Though the report is no more than a platitude, it nevertheless reflects a deeper reason for the tense relations between China and America; that is, with China’s military and economic strength soaring up, America’s worries have upgraded into anxieties. As its power is decreasing, America, an empire sitting in the top chair among the world powers since World War II, is becoming more and more self-centered, and, facing its competitive rival, America is losing tolerance for China. Therefore, Republicans and Democrats are adopting highly similar policies regarding China and spreading the “China threat theory” has become a common interest.

The deterioration of the Sino-U.S. relations and confrontation between the two has brought considerable negative effects. Last week, Pyongyang provoked the whole world by showing off its newly built enriched uranium facilities to an American scientist. In the past two years, the issue of North Korean nuclear capacity has made no progress, an important reason being that China and America have yet to reach common ground on how to deal with North Korea. America tends to get tough on North Korea and has taken measures such as strengthening its coalition with South Korea and Japan, as well as employing an economic blockade to address North Korea’s unwillingness to give up its nuclear facilities. Yet such measures, especially in exerting pressure on Pyongyang, have jeopardized China’s national security. Therefore, the two countries have gone their separate ways on policies regarding North Korea. This has given North Korea an opportunity to make a splash in the international arena. Pyongyang’s nuclear provocation has struck a warning bell — if China and America are unable get along, we can begin counting off days to a third nuclear crisis.

The “cold war” between China and America not only complicates the North Korea nuclear issue but also deteriorates the peace and stability of the entire East Asian region. A year ago, East Asia was still dreaming of regional integration. Then-Japanese Prime Minister Yukio Hatoyama and then-Australian Prime Minister Kevin Rudd both proposed ambitious plans for regional integration. With rapport among countries within the region, the development of free trade zones and the currency reserves of East Asia, the concept of an East Asia community was conceived and encouraged. But since 2010, with America’s return to involvement in East Asian affairs and the competition for regional influence with China, the entire East Asia situation is becoming more nuanced and complicated. The dream of a “Great East Asia” has been shattered by the merciless reality, and quite a few countries have been forced to choose a side between China and America.

Of course, some countries are not being forced to pick sides. On the issues of the South China Sea and Diaoyu Island, the U.S. government’s easy promises are pushing the countries concerned toward a frenzied attack against China. A situation like this surely pleases those Americans who oppose China blindly. Though by doing this America has raised its standing in the East Asia, it comes with negative effects as well. China will have to adopt a tougher counter policy and get back at America’s enmity by reducing cooperation in other areas. Meanwhile, too many empty promises will lead America into trouble.

Most importantly, the Asia-Pacific region cherishes the principle of opening-up, and East Asian countries have always seen America as one inseparable part of their region politically, economically and especially in terms of security. Therefore, America has no need to rack its brain to come up with a way to become involved in East Asian affairs to damage China’s interests. We can say that a prosperous, stable East Asia in fact generates more benefits than challenges to America.

China’s rise and the ensuing re-ranking of power in East Asia is inevitable, however reluctant America and some other countries may be. Even if the term G-2 exaggerates and overestimates China’s global power and influence, at a regional level China and America deciding the future of East Asia together is not a farfetched dream. Japan has lost its place as second in terms of global economic strength to China this year, an indicator of Japan’s fall in status and a mark of the official establishment of China’s status as a big power. East Asia will embrace a new era.

China and America are the two very pillars in this new era. The improvement of bilateral relations 30 years ago grew mainly out of concern about their respective national security. Today, the concern for national security has become the biggest obstacle for better Sino-U.S. relations, and the impetus for cooperation is coming more and more from economic and cultural undertakings by both sides but, more importantly, from global and regional issues. Whether it’s tackling the financial crisis or addressing climate change, whether it’s pushing the Doha Round forward or urging North Korea to give up its nuclear facilities, the world is experiencing a chaotic transition in the international order, and the solution to many global issues depends more and more on the common ground between China and America. This calls for China and America to think and act beyond their narrow sense of national security and instead form a more conductive strategic relationship.


尽管两国已敲定中国国家主席胡锦涛明年1月访美的计划,但中美关系依然没有明显回暖的迹象。在华盛顿,共和党成功控制国会之后,开始进一步在对华政策上对政府施压。美中经济与安全评估委员会最近就出台报告,对中国的经济和国防政策大加抨击。报告指中国的空军和导弹现代化,加强了对其太平洋地区军事存在的威胁能力,并称中国“排斥性”的贸易政策致使美国出现高额贸易逆差,建议财政部把中国列为货币操纵国。

  报告内容不免老生常谈,但它却反映了中美关系紧张的深层次原因,即华盛顿对中国军事和经济能力的迅速提升,已经由之前的担忧上升为一种焦虑。由于实力衰退,在对手强有力的竞争面前,这个二战以来一直高居权力之巅的帝国开始变得自私自利,对正在逐步接近自己的中国越来越不宽容。国会共和与民主两党在对华政策上又开始高度趋同,炒作“威胁论”成了他们的共同旨趣。


  不过,中美关系的恶化及持续的“冷对峙”,已经造成了相当大的负面效应。在上周,平壤公然挑衅,向一名美国科学家展示了其新建的浓缩铀设施。朝核问题两年多来裹足不前,其中的重要原因是,中美在对朝政策上缺乏交集。在平壤不愿轻易弃核的情况下,华盛顿倾向于强硬施压,采用诸如强化美韩、美日同盟和经济封锁来对付平壤,但此类措施,尤其是前者,却显著恶化了中国的安全处境。由此导致两国政策渐行渐远,甚至可以说是分道扬镳。这为平壤提供可趁之机,此次“铀挑衅”提出了及时的警示。如果中美再不协调应对,“第三次核危机”将指日可待。

  中美间的“冷战”不仅让朝核问题趋于复杂,更恶化了整个东亚的安全环境。一年之前,这一地区还沉浸在构建一体化的狂想当中,日本的鸠山和澳大利亚的陆克文,都适时提出了雄心勃勃的区域整合计划。区域国家间关系的缓和、自由贸易区的盛行,以及东亚货币储备池的建立,都刺激着东亚共同体意识的成长。但今年以来,随着美国回归亚洲,与中国竞争区域影响力,东亚地区的局势就变得复杂而微妙起来。“大东亚”的梦想不仅被冰冷的现实击得粉碎,不少国家更被迫在中美间选择性“站队”。

  有些国家当然不是被迫“站队”,在南中国海问题上,在钓鱼岛问题上,华府轻易的许诺正将相关国家推向狂热围攻中国的境地。这种状况固然让美国国内那些盲目反华势力兴高采烈,并提升了华府在东亚的影响力,但负面代价也相当大。它将迫使中国采取强硬反制措施,以其他领域的不合作来报复华府的敌意。与此同时,华府的过度承诺将使其陷入更多的麻烦当中。

  重要的是,亚太一直奉行开放原则,东亚国家也始终将美利坚视为本地区政治、经济尤其是安全架构不可分割的一部分,美国根本不需要处心积虑地以损失中国利益的方式来参与东亚事务。可以说,维持一个经济繁荣、政治稳定的东亚,对美国的挑战要远小于其从中获取的收益。

不管美国或部分国家多么不情愿,中国的崛起以及随之而来的东亚权力的重新分配,都将是难以避免的。假如说全球意义上的G2有些夸大其词,过于高估了中国的实力及其影响力,那么,在东亚区域层次上,中美“双头共治”的图景却并非虚幻、遥不可及。今年,日本的第二大经济体地位被中国迎头赶上,这实际上标志着日本地位的全面沦陷和中国大国地位的正式确立,东亚将迎来一个新的时代。
  中美正是这个新时代秩序的两根支柱。30多年前,双边关系的改善主要源自两国对各自安全的关切。今天,对安全的忧虑反而成了两国关系进展的最大障碍,合作的动力越来越多的来源于双边经济、文化、社会事务,及更为重要的全球和区域问题。无论是应对金融危机还是解决气候变化,无论是推动多哈回合谈判还是敦促朝鲜最终弃核,在国际体系面临转型的混乱时期,全球诸多事务的治理越来越难以缺少两国的共同声音和身影。这种情势要求中美必须超越狭隘的双边安全考虑,去构建一种更为建设性的战略关系。

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