Hu Jintao Visiting the U.S. Will Not Affect U.S.-Taiwan Cross-Strait Relations

Published in China Times
(Taiwan) on 4 January 2011
by Chen Yixin (link to originallink to original)
Translated from by Drew Machowicz. Edited by Hoishan Chan.
The Taiwanese ambassador to the United States, Yuan Jiansheng, indicated on Jan. 1, 2011, that according to a briefing by his American counterpart, the Chinese leader Hu Jintao’s visit to the United States should not affect relations between the United States and Taiwan. In fact, based on a number of reasons, not only will it not affect U.S.-Taiwan relations, judging from all sorts of indications, it should actually benefit them positively.

Will Not Bring up the ‘Core Interests’ Again

Firstly, as usual, if there is some trouble or if something big happens in U.S.-Taiwan relations, Washington think tanks or the president of the American Institute in Taiwan will carry a message to Taipei. For example, on Nov. 17, 2009, before President Obama and President Hu Jintao announced the “U.S.-China Joint Statement,” Senior Fellow Bonnie S. Glaser at the Center for Strategic and International Studies warned our country: U.S.-China talks are about ‘core’ interests and issues. Raymond F. Burghardt, chairman of the Board of Trustees of the AIT came to Taiwan in early December 2010, and brought with him notes on the U.S.-Taiwan negotiations scheduled for early this year for the Trade and Investment Framework Agreement. This time, since there is no negative message of U.S.-Taiwan relations whatsoever, Taipei should not have any special concerns. Moreover, in 2010 some conflicts arose between the U.S. and China about ‘core’ issues, so Hu would probably not bring up ‘core’ interests and issues again during this visit in order to avoid causing trouble.

Secondly, the Cheonan sinking incident, North Korea shelling the South Korean island of Yeonpyeong and North Korea’s nuclear development are the main reasons for heightened tensions in the U.S.-China relationship in 2010. Therefore during this visit, Hu and Obama will probably come to an agreement on these issues. Recently, South Korean President Lee Myung Bak and three state-run North Korean newspapers issued a joint New Year’s editorial, and we can see that North and South Korea have decided to get on the right track and cool down, practice self-restraint and prepare to return to the six-party talks. This obviously has a lot to do with the intensive behind-the-scenes machinations by China and the U.S.

In addition, they will also cooperate on the international financial crisis, climate change, nuclear security and other global issues. On the aspect of the RMB exchange rate, Beijing is unlikely to meet any of Washington’s subjective wishes, but facing pressure from the American quantitative easing monetary policy and the government, it is impossible for Beijing not to cooperate with the U.S. on this issue just a little.

The Chinese Hope to Patch Relations with the Americans

Thirdly, despite the United States and China being the new political and economic heavyweights in the Asia-Pacific, they are in a balanced alliance. However, in order to create a constructive atmosphere, Hu’s visit should not affect the United States’ peaceful relations with any country. In fact, between the United States, Japan and South Korea, a stronger alliance will be formed. Also, in a speech last month, U.S. Deputy Secretary of State James Steinberg said that the United States will continue to comply with the “Taiwan Relations Act” when selling arms to Taiwan. Many Southeast Asian countries also have the intention to become closer to the United States or hope the United States can balance the rise of China. Also, Hu Jintao really hopes to repair relations with the United States in order to avoid any country from using cracks in Sino-U.S. relations to benefit.

Fourth, Beijing succeeded last year in promoting ECFA, which will bring cross-strait economic cooperation to into a new phase, and has led to historic progress in Taiwanese industry. Therefore, during the visit of Hu Jintao, at the very most he and his American counterpart will stress in the Sino-U.S. Joint Statement that both countries would like to see a breakthrough in cross-strait economic progress. In fact, while Hu was at the Chinese People’s Political Consultive Conference during the New Year’s, held for two days of talks, and in his New Year’s message, there was a special emphasis on cross-strait exchanges. Hu said that in 2011, China will “grasp firmly the theme of peaceful development and continue to promote cross-strait exchanges and cooperation.” Thus be it for peaceful cross-strait development, or for his own place in history, during this visit Hu will not destroy the very positive atmosphere of the current cross-strait relationship.

Finally, Deputy Secretary of State Steinberg indicated in a speech early last month that Washington and Beijing will discuss Taiwanese participation in international organizations. In early January Foreign Minister Yang Jiechi will go to Washington to prepare in advance for the negotiations during Hu’s visit. Taipei naturally hopes that the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change and the International Civil Aviation Organization will be on the table.


名家-胡錦濤訪美不影響美台兩岸關係
2011-01-04 旺報 【陳一新】
 駐美代表袁健生2011年1月1日表示,根據美方對他做的簡報,中國領導人胡錦濤的訪美應不會影響美國與我國的關係。事實上,基於以下一些理由,胡這次國事訪問不僅不會影響美台關係,而且從各種跡象判斷,應會對兩岸關係有正面助益。

 將不致重提「核心利益」

 首先,按照慣例,美台關係如有風吹草動或是出現什麼大事,華府之智庫學者或是美國與在台協會理事主席必會把訊息帶到台北。例如,2009年11月17日,歐巴馬總統與胡錦濤宣布「美中聯合聲明」之前,華府「戰略暨國際研究中心」(CSIS)資深研究員葛萊儀就曾警告我國:美中兩國會談「核心利益」問題。「美國在台協會」理事主席薄瑞光2010年12月初來台,帶來的則是美台將在今年初談判「投資暨貿易架構協議」(TIFA)。這次,既然沒有任何有關不利美台關係的訊息,台北應無必要特別擔心。何況,中美兩國在2010年既然在「核心利益」問題衝突時起,胡應不致在這次國事訪問中重提「核心利益」問題,以免搬磚頭砸自己腳。

 其次,由於天安艦事件、北韓炮擊南韓延坪島,以及北韓核武發展是造成2010年美中緊張情勢升高的主因;因此,胡在這次國事訪問應會針對這些問題與歐巴馬達成協議。從最近南韓總統李明博與北韓3家國營報紙發表聯合元旦社論可以看出,南北韓都已決定降溫、自制,準備回到「六方會談」的正軌。這顯然與中美兩國幕後的密集操作有很大的關係。

 此外,他們也會在處理國際金融危機、氣候變遷、核安全等全球性問題取得合作。至於人民幣匯率問題方面,北京不太可能迎合華府的主觀願望,但在美方量化寬鬆貨幣與府會聯手壓力之下,北京也不可能完全不在客觀上略為配合。

 中方盼修補與美關係

 第三,儘管美中兩國在亞太新的政經體系之中正處於合縱連衡的狀態;但是,為了營造良好氣氛,胡的來訪應不會影響美國與任何國家正面和諧的關係。事實上,在美、日、南韓之間更鞏固的聯盟行將形成、美國副國務卿史坦柏格也在上個月初的演講中聲稱美國會繼續遵守《台灣關係法》售台武器,以及東南亞不少國家正有意向美國靠攏或希望藉美國平衡中國崛起之際,胡錦濤也非常希望修補與美國的關係,以免中美關係的裂痕為任何國家所利用。

 第四,北京在去年一整年成功地推動ECFA,將兩岸經濟合作提升到新階段,在對台工作上取得了具有歷史意義上的進展。因此,胡錦濤在這次國事訪問中,最多只會與美方在「中美共同聲明」中強調中美兩國樂見兩岸經濟合作的突破性進展。其實,胡在政協新年茶話會與新年賀詞連續兩天發表談話,也特別強調在兩岸方面,中國在2011年要「牢牢把握兩岸關係和平發展主題,繼續推進兩岸交流合作。」因此,無論是為了兩岸關係的和平發展,還是為了自己的歷史定位,胡都不可能這次國事訪問期間破壞兩岸關係目前良好的氣氛。

 最後,史坦柏格副國務卿在上個月初的演講中,指出華府將與北京諮商台灣參與國際組織的可能性。1月上旬,中共外長楊潔篪將赴華府,為胡錦濤國事訪問進行先遣安排與相關談判,台北自然希望「聯合國氣候變化綱要公約」(UNFCCC) 與「國際民航組織」(ICAO)也是他們之間的議場。
This post appeared on the front page as a direct link to the original article with the above link .

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1 COMMENT

  1. Anyone who cares about honoring our war dead and bringing solace to their families by returning their remains should vehemently protest Chinese President Hu’s upcoming state visit to the US. Due to pressure from his government, the US and Indian Governments were forced to cancel the only US MIA remains recovery operation in India scheduled for 2010. The location of this operation is a US Army Air Force B-24 crash site in the Northeast Indian state of Arunachal Pradesh, which borders on China and which China has been claiming as its own. Notwithstanding the fact that the Singh Government and the Obama Administration (in the person of Under Secretary of Defense for Policy Michelle Flournoy) have displayed amazing timidity by kowtowing to this Chinese pressure, the Chinese Government’s attitude toward this purely humanitarian operation is hardly conducive to fostering amicable relations between China and the United States.

    Gary Zaetz

    Nephew of World War II MIA lost in Arunachal Pradesh, India on January 25, 1944

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