Sarah Palin: Why It Does Not Work Anymore

Published in Le Figaro
(France) on 23 January 2011
by Véronique Saint-Geours (link to originallink to original)
Translated from by Hughie Coogan. Edited by Mark DeLucas.
Ever since Tucson, the Sarah Palin juggernaut has seemingly stalled. And the New Hampshire political poll does not seem to give much hope either. The midterm elections already are a distant memory and to draw a political benefit from them now is a difficult task. Let’s look at some facts:

1) She failed to react in any way until 36 hours after the Tucson drama; this missed opportunity was criticized by Americans (46 percent disapproved), and what’s more, she even made the suggestion that criticism of the right wing amounted to blood libel — the accusation that religious minorities murder children to use their blood in certain aspects of their religious rituals. Tucson could be Palin’s breaking point because at the same time, Obama hit the target and gained some extra ground. Among Americans polled, 80 percent approved of his speech and of his behavior at Tucson. Among Republicans, 71 percent approved of his leadership during this drama.

2) Before Tucson, Palin did not know how to — nor even that she could — take advantage of the support she offered to candidates following the November midterms. She has failed to pick up valuable points, whereas images of high-profile candidates, such as California’s defeated Carly Fiorina, are etched in our memories. For the Republicans who have been elected, the tea party banner stands as a battle flag. Marco Rubio, the new senator from Florida, is claimed exclusively by the tea party, and Palin in the past said, "I love Marco Rubio." And as for reelected John McCain, endorsed by Palin, he finds himself in hot water for his Arizona senate seat; however, it would be an understatement to say he has not been scoring well as of late. He also said, once elected, that he would not support her in 2012 — thank you, sir — meaning a low return on investment for Sarah Palin.

3) Palin has entered herself into a game of political time management. She thought she had captivated America with the announcement of her presidential candidacy in 2012, becoming a wild card; however, subsequently, we no longer speak of her. Especially as time goes by, the negative figures are more prevalent — for instance, those of the New Hampshire “straw poll,” an unlabeled survey which identifies the best candidate within the party. This Saturday, the poll shows Palin in a meager fourth position (7 percent), trailing a triumphant Mitt Romney, who led the poll with 36 percent, followed by Ron Paul (10 percent) and Jim Pawlenty (8 percent). The new head of the New Hampshire GOP, elected on Saturday, is a tea party-ist, pure and simple. Where is Palin while all this is happening? Fourth, with 7 percent.

4) Her difficulty, or her inability, to form a credible campaign team is a real handicap. And we trust that the bosses of the GOP will not get involved in the hiring process.

5) Finally, her communication — be it by video, email or Twitter — leaves a lot to be desired. It does not seem to work in her favor, as the gap between the importance of the event she covers (e.g., Tucson) and the casualness of the media she uses borders on indecency.

She is doomed to receive negative media coverage, something that she is already familiar with, but now perceptions are becoming more and more difficult to control. For example:

- The TV series, "Sarah Palin's Alaska," which boasted more than 3 million viewers, has created some negative media coverage for Palin. However, there is good news for Palin: The Discovery Channel has announced that it will not resume the show on TLC.

- The "Dancing with the Stars" competition, featuring her daughter, Bristol Palin, has been dogged with allegations of possible rigging and often lucky progression from week to week. It recently saw Bristol reaching the finals. During autumn 2010, there had been disturbances and personal attacks against her mother, who was very instrumental in the whole operation.

- Finally, Palin’s second and latest book, "America by Heart," was published this summer but did not succeed in climbing the bestsellers list, as it failed to become a hit.

The Palin machine, which is falling apart before her very eyes, seems like it cannot be mended, especially in a world of media communication where any mistake is fatal. The almost inevitable collapse is the result of trust-based communication. Since Palin chooses not to conduct press interaction live, her campaign momentum has begun to fade. Now it seems all the GOP might have to do is wait.



Janvier 2011: Depuis Tucson, la machine Sarah Palin s'enraye. Et le sondage du New Hampshire ne peut pas lui remonter le moral. Les élections de mi mandat semblent déjà loin et leur bénéfice politique confus pour elle. Quelques faits:

1- Sa communication tardive et ratée 36 heures après le drame a été critiquée par l'Amérique (46% désapprouvent) et encore plus après son évocation du Blood libel. Tucson pourrait être le point de rupture. Dans le même temps Obama a fait mouche et pris une dimension supplémentaire. 80% des Américains interrogés ont approuvé son discours et son comportement au moment de Tucson. 71% des Républicains ont approuvé son leadership dans ce drame.

2- Mais avant Tucson, Palin n'avait pas su ou pas pu prendre avantage du soutien offert aux candidats des élections de novembre 2010. L'image de grands candidats à forte notoriété battus comme en Californie Carli Fiorina a impresssionné les esprits. Pour ceux qui ont été élus c'est le Tea Party qui apparaît comme étendard: Marco Rubio nouveau sénateur de Floride par exemple que Palin couvrait de "I love You", se réclame exclusiment du Tea party. Et dans le cas de John McCain réélu mais en difficulté pour son siège de sénateur en Arizona et endorsed par elle, c'est peu dire qu'il ne l'a pas marqué dans son résumé ce mauvais moment. Il avait d'ailleurs déclaré, une fois élu, qu'il ne la soutiendrait pas pour 2012. Merci monsieur. Donc faible retour d'investissement pour Sarah Palin.

3- Elle s'est lancée dans une gestion du temps politique. Elle a cru tenir en haleine l'Amérique avec l'annonce de sa candidature à la présidentielle de 2012 devenue un mistigri dont on ne parle plus. D'autant que le temps passant, les chiffres défavorables l'ont rejointe comme ceux du straw poll ( sondage non labélisé qui désigne le meilleur candidat du Parti) du New Hampshire ce samedi qui lui affecte une quatrième place (7%) après Mitt Romney caracolant avec 36%, Ron Paul 10% et Jim Pawlenty 8%. Le patron du GOP du New Hampshire élu samedi est un Tea Partypur et dur. Et Palin dans tout ça? 4ème avec 7%.

4- Sa difficulté ou son incapacité à constituer une équipe crédible de campagne sont un véritable handicap. Et on fait confiance aux patrons du GOP pour ne pas favoriser l'embauche.

5- Sa communication par video, email ou twitt la dessert tant le décalage entre la dimension de l'évènement qu'elle commente (ex: Tucson) et la désinvolture du media qu'elle utilise confine à l'indécence.

Alors elle est condamnée aux coups d'éclat et aux coups media qu'elle connaît bien mais de plus en plus difficiles à contrôler:
°La série "Sarah Palin's Alaska" fait pschitt avec 3 millions de téléspectateurs (quand même) et une annonce de Discovery Channel qui ne reprendra pas sur TLC cette expérience ennuyeuse dont certains plans viennent de banques d'images et non pas de tournages exceptionnels.

°La scénarisation du concours de danse "dancing with the stars" de sa fille Bristol avec possibles magouilles et sélection hasardeuse de semaine en semaine ( Bristol a atteint la finale dans un climat houleux) pendant l'automne 2010 ont créé un trouble et des attaques personnelles contre la mère très impliquée dans cette opération.

° Son second et nouveau livre "America by heart" paru cet été mais qui ne renouvelle pas le genre a peu de chances de grimper sur les étagères des bibliothèques à défaut d'être lu.

C'est une mécanique qui s'enraye sous ses propres yeux et qu'elle ne peut faire rebondir dans un univers_celui de la communication media_où toute erreur peut être fatale. Et la dégringolade presque inéluctable parceque la communication repose sur une confiance. Alors quand le momentum est brisé il n'y a pas d'oral de rattrapage. D'autant qu'elle a choisi de ne pas faire de direct. Le GOP pourrait n'avoir eu qu'à attendre.
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