America indeed plays games everywhere. This time, the games it is playing in Egypt are becoming increasingly obvious. When Ben Ali fell in Tunisia and the youth upheaval started in Egypt, America began to worry. The situation in Egypt is different from the U.S.-backed protests in Iran opposing Ahmadinejad. This time America was very passive and suggested waiting for the situation to develop.
Only after the Egyptian police and security forces failed to forcibly obstruct the protesters and the military capably took over did America release a statement asking Mubarak not to use force against the mass movement. This statement was followed by a request that the Egyptian government enact reforms and hold a dialogue with its population.
As usual, America’s allies in Europe, primarily Britain, followed America’s steps and asked Mubarak to reform his system but not his government. Furthermore, America’s foreign affairs department made a statement that was even more “progressive,” and that was when Hillary Clinton asked Egypt to start an orderly transition. It was not clear what was meant by transition.
Mubarak promptly and faithfully followed this American “push.” First he appointed someone he was close with to be vice president, which had never happened in 30 years, and then replaced several ministers, including the prime minister and the internal affairs minister, who was in charge of the Egyptian security forces, known for their cruelty.
The youth movement that continued to grow, with a turnout of about a million people Tuesday, Feb. 2, greatly influenced Obama’s actions. After witnessing the resolve and courage of the protesters, President Obama sent a special envoy to Egypt and asked that Mubarak make a statement assuring he would not run again in the Egyptian presidential election this coming September.
Obama’s request was followed by a statement from Sen. Kerry, asking Mubarak to work together with the military and the civilian population to shape a transitional government. This is reminiscent of Suharto’s final efforts to shape the reform cabinet, which was rejected by the youth movement in Indonesia.
Mubarak immediately followed along and proclaimed through a televised broadcast that he would not run again, although he promised to protect safety in the process of governmental change until the presidential election this September.
The Delay Tactic
America’s attitude and position was no mystery to anyone. There was a strong impression that for each of Mubarak’s subsequent steps, he waited for direction from Washington. The American government, surprised by the rapid developments in the Middle East, felt at a loss and panicked. Within the last week, Obama has repeatedly held emergency sessions with various assistants, primarily those who grasp the significance of the current situation in Egypt, as if in an attempt to stop a rebellion in Texas or California.
Mubarak is a loyal ally of the United States and Israel. He has also had a role in creating “stability” and protecting the peace with Israel for the last 30 years. Mubarak even helped Israel in its efforts to weaken Hamas, Israel’s primary enemy in Gaza.
The fall of Mubarak will create uncertainty in Egypt regarding the importance of the West and Israel. Moreover, concern over the emergence of the post-Mubarak Muslim Brotherhood is evident. America and its allies have to try all options to possibly retain Mubarak. In the case of failure, America at least needs time to manipulate the process of changing Egypt’s ruler. The only path that is available, now that Mubarak is already cornered, is the use of the delay tactic.
With that tactic, America appears to side with the Egyptian population in refusing to allow Mubarak to run in the upcoming presidential elections; however, in reality, America and others only support Mubarak in Egypt in order to buy time to arrange their next strategy.
This is a very delayed step, in my opinion. The Egyptian population will not buy America’s newest offer. They are not naïve and can see America’s true intentions. If America sincerely wanted sovereignty for Egypt’s population, why did it wait until now to act? After the large upheaval has taken place, with hundreds of victims killed as well as thousands wounded among the people, America’s reaction is too late.
The Egyptian population only has one word for Mubarak: “irhal” (be gone), which they have repeatedly screamed during protests. Elbaradei, a moderate Egyptian figure and a former leader of the International Atomic Energy Agency who came to oppose Mubarak, stated that he was disappointed by the fickle American attitude. The face of America in Egypt is already too tarnished. The Egyptian population demands no less and no more than the departure of Mubarak from power in Egypt.
This two-faced American attitude is not a new thing. By preaching democracy while protecting authoritarian leaders in various countries, America is damaging its image. Also, urging for peace while sending troops to wars and selling weapons, barring Iran from owning nuclear power but letting Israel become the only nuclear power in the Middle East, promoting freedom of the press but bombing the Al-Jazeera news office in Baghdad, barring Almanar TV from reaching America and sanctioning countries that violate human rights, while severely violating human rights itself, both in and out of the U.S., are clear examples of the hypocrisy in American foreign policy.
There appears to be no turning back from this upheaval in the Middle East. If the American government remains unable to draw a valuable lesson from this situation and continues to focus its foreign policy on long-term domestic interests, then the American people will be at a loss. They repeatedly choose presidents and representatives that do not have a shared vision and only a short-sighted political orientation.
Amerika memang bermain di mana-mana. Kali ini permainannya di Mesir makin terkuak. Ketika Ben Ali jatuh di Tunisia dan disusul dengan pergolakan pemuda di Mesir, Amerika mulai khawatir. Berbeda dengan ketika ada demo besar di Iran yang menentang Ahamadinejad di mana pemerintah Obama dengan segera dan serta-merta mendukung pendemo, kali ini Amerika sangat lamban dan terkesan menunggu perkembangan situasi.
Setelah polisi dan aparat keamanan Mesir gagal menghambat pemrotes dengan kekerasan dan kemudian militer mengambil alih dengan lebih bijak, Amerika baru mengeluarkan pernyataan meminta Mubarak tidak menggunakan kekerasan dalam menghadapi gerakan masa di sana. Pernyataan ini disusul dengan permintaan agar pemerintah Mesir melakukan reformasi dan mengadakan dialog dengan rakyatnya.
Sebagaimana biasa, sekutu Amerika di Eropa, utamanya Inggris, kemudian membeo dan meminta Mubarak agar mereformasi SISTEM pemerintahannya, bukan pemerintahnya. Belakangan Departemen Luar Negeri Amerika membuat pernyataan yang lebih "maju" lagi ketika Hillary Clinton meminta Mesir untuk melaksanakan proses transisi dengan tertib (orderly transition). Tidak dijelaskan apa yang dimaksud dengan transisi.
"Desakan" Amerika ini segera diikuti dengan setia oleh Mubarak dengan pertama mengangkat orang dekatnya sebagai wakil presiden setelah 30 tahun negeri itu tidak punya wakil presiden, kemudian mengganti perdana menteri dan beberapa menteri lain termasuk menteri dalam negeri yang membawahkan aparat keamanan Mesir yang dikenal bengis.
Terakhir, setelah menyaksikan ketahanan dan semangat gerakan masa yang makin meningkat dengan turunnya sejuta lebih massa pada ini Selasa 2 Februari, Obama mengirim utusan khusus ke Mesir dan meminta Presiden Mubarak membuat pernyataan tidak akan maju lagi dalam pemilihan presiden di Mesir pada September mendatang.
Permintaan Gedung Putih ini menyusul pernyataan Senator Kerry yang meminta Mubarak bekerja sama dengan militer dan masyarakat madani untuk membentuk pemerintahan transisi. Mengingatkan kita kepada upaya akhir Soeharto membentuk kabinet reformasi yang ditolak masa.
Dengan serta-merta Mubarak menurut dan mengumumkan melalui televisi bahwa dia tidak akan maju lagi namun berjanji akan menjaga keamanan dan proses penggantian pemerintahan sampai pemilu September nanti.
Taktik Menunda
Sejak awal, siapa pun dengan mudah dapat membaca sikap dan posisi Amerika. Ada kesan kuat bahwa satu per satu langkah Mubarak secara berurutan menunggu arahan dari Washington. Pemerintah Amerika yang dikejutkan dengan perkembangan cepat di Timur Tengah merasa kecolongan dan panik. Obama dalam waktu seminggu terakhir berkali-kali mengadakan rapat-rapat darurat dengan berbagai pembantu utamanya membahas situasi mutakhir di Mesir, seakan-akan seperti sedang membahas pemberontakan di Texas atau Califronia.
Mubarak adalah sekutu setia Amerika dan Israel di Timur Tengah yang telah berperan menciptakan "kestabilan" dan memelihara perdamaian dengan Israel selama 30 tahun terakhir. Mubarak bahkan membantu Israel dalam upaya melemahkan Hamas, musuh utama Israel di Gaza.
Jatuhnya Mubarak akan menciptakan ketidakpastian bagi kepentingan Barat dan Israel. Belum lagi dibayang-bayangi dengan kekhawatiran kemungkinan munculnya Ihwanul Muslimin pasca-Mubarak. Segala jalan harus ditempuh Amerika dan kawan-kawan untuk sebisa mungkin mempertahankan Mubarak. Bila ini tidak mungkin, setidaknya Amerika perlu waktu untuk memengaruhi proses pergantian penguasa di Mesir. Satu-satunya jalan, ketika Mubarak sudah dalam posisi terpepet, adalah dengan melakukan taktik menunda.
Dengan demikian, Amerika berharap akan tampak berpihak kepada rakyat Mesir dengan meminta Mubarak tidak maju lagi dalam pemilu presiden mendatang. Yang sebenarnya adalah bahwa Amerika dan sisa-sisa pendukung Mubarak di Mesir hanya sekadar membeli waktu untuk mengatur strategi berikutnya.
Langkah ini, menurut saya, sudah sangat terlambat. Rakyat Mesir tidak akan membeli tawaran terbaru Amerika. Mereka tidak terlalu bodoh untuk bisa membacanya. Jika Amerika memang tulus menghendaki kedaulatan rakyat di Mesir, mengapa baru sekarang mereka bertindak setelah terjadi pergolakan besar dan jatuh ratusan korban tewas serta ribuan cedera di kalangan rakyat?
Rakyat Mesir sekarang hanya mengenal satu kata "irhal" (pergilah) bagi Mubarak yang berulang-ulang diteriakkan saat demonstrasi. Elbaradai, tokoh moderat Mesir mantan ketua IAEA yang belakangan beroposisi terhadap Mubarak, menyatakan kecewa atas sikap Amerika yang plin-plan. Wajah Amerika di Mesir sudah telanjur tercoreng. Tuntutan rakyat Mesir tidak kurang dan tidak lebih dari hengkangnya Mubarak dari tampuk kekuasaan Mesir.
Sikap Amerika yang bermuka dua ini bukanlah hal baru. Meneriakkan demokrasi sambil memelihara penguasa-penguasa otoriter di berbagai negara. Menganjurkan perdamaian sembari mengirim tentara untuk berperang di mana-mana dan menjual senjata ke mana-mana. Melarang Iran memiliki kekuatan Nuklir tapi membiarkan Israel sebagai satu-satunya kekuatan nuklir di Timur Tengah. Mempromosikan kebebasan pers tetapi mengebom kantor berita Aljazeera di Baghdad dan melarang TV Almanar menjangkau Amerika. Memberikan sanksi terhadap negara-negara yang melanggar HAM tetapi melanggar HAM berat sendiri baik di dalam maupun di luar negeri.
Bila dari kasus pergolakan di Timur Tengah yang tampaknya tidak ada titik baliknya ini Pemerintah Amerika masih tetap tidak mampu mengambil pelajaran berharga darinya dengan meninjau kembali politik luar negerinya untuk kepentingan nasional Amerika jangka panjang, maka merugilah rakyat Amerika yang berkali-kali memilih presiden dan wakil rakyatnya yang tidak salah visi dan sekadar berorientasi politik jangka pendek.
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The madness lies in asserting something ... contrary to all evidence and intelligence. The method is doing it again and again, relentlessly, at full volume ... This is how Trump became president twice.
It wouldn’t have cost Trump anything to show a clear intent to deter in a strategically crucial moment; it wouldn’t even have undermined his efforts in Ukraine.
It wouldn’t have cost Trump anything to show a clear intent to deter in a strategically crucial moment; it wouldn’t even have undermined his efforts in Ukraine.