Why the U.S. Supports Independent Southern Sudan

Published in Huanqiu
(China) on 10 February 2011
by He Wen Ping (link to originallink to original)
Translated from by Peixin Lin. Edited by Jenette Axelrod.
On February 7, over 98 percent of voters in Southern Sudan chose independence. U.S. President Barack Obama immediately acknowledged the new country. News from the White House even indicates that Secretary of State Hillary Clinton will accept an invitation to visit Sudan. She will be the highest U.S. government official to have visited Sudan in recent years.

That the Southern Sudan referendum took place as scheduled, peacefully and successfully, proves to the U.S. government that America’s new strategy in Sudan is working. While the Obama administration maintains the use of deterrence diplomacy in the case of Sudan, the new strategy announced by the Obama administration in September 2010 replaces sanctions, isolation and big stick diplomacy with encouragement, rewards and a pro-engagement carrot policy.

The U.S. State Department explicitly states that the new Sudan strategy will focus on the timely implementation of the Comprehensive Peace Agreement signed between the North and South. The desired result would either be a united and peaceful Sudan after 2011, or two separate and viable states at peace with each other.

The other objectives include ending human rights violations, genocide and preventing Sudan from becoming once again a safe harbor for international terrorists. If the U.S. perceives that Sudan is performing satisfactorily in these areas, it will in turn reward Sudan in the following ways: It will remove Sudan from the terrorism list, increase aid and debt relief to Sudan and partially or fully lift sanctions.

Recently, the U.S. has even joined France in seriously considering the proposal by the African Union to delay the arrest of Sudanese President Omar al-Bashir, for whom the International Criminal Court has issued an arrest warrant.

Of course, the U.S. has not forgotten to continue its warnings to the Sudanese government. Hillary Clinton cautioned that in the upcoming six-month transition period toward Southern Sudan’s independence, Northern Sudan has to maintain cooperation (implying that there should be no “small incidents”) and that there must be strict implementation of peace agreements and post-referendum arrangements.

Other high officials have also threatened that if Sudan’s performance is not up to U.S. expectations, Sudan may have to face serious consequences, such as sanctions.

It is not difficult to realize that even though the U.S. has incorporated antiterrorism and human rights protection into its new Sudan policy, ensuring Southern Sudan’s independence realizes the intention behind the new strategy. The larger motive behind the strategy highlights two of the United States’ long-term strategic considerations: greed for Sudan’s rich oil resources, and not allowing the Islamic regime in Northern Sudan to further penetrate the African continent.

As all are aware, Sudan possesses rich oil and natural gas resources, conservatively estimated to be at least 80-100 billion barrels, and of which a majority of the reserves are in the South. American firms such as Chevron and Exxon used to tap into these resources in the 1970s and 1980s, but have had to keep away from this treasure trove due to U.S. government sanctions.

Over the years, the U.S. government and major oil companies have never been content to be spectators in the exploration and exploitation of Sudan’s natural resources, and have long wished to return to the field. Now, with Southern Sudan’s impending independence, U.S. oil companies will lead the way out of sanction imprisonment, and will cause a reshuffling of the allocation of oil resources in the region.

From the perspectives of geopolitics and preventing the spread of the Islamic influence after 9/11, Sudan’s geographical position has gained geopolitical importance to U.S. antiterrorism. U.S. antiterrorism efforts in Africa are concentrated in the Horn of Africa and the Central and Western Saharan regions. Sudan is the key link between the two above regions.

From the mid-1990s, Osama Bin Laden and al-Qaeda have used Sudan as a base in planning terrorist attacks against the U.S. In addition, al-Bashir’s Islamic regime (98 percent of Northern Sudanese are Muslim) led the U.S. government to worry that Islamic extremist groups will use Sudan as a base to further penetrate the African continent.

Thus, a secular, independent Southern Sudan with followers of Christianity and indigenous religions could no doubt become a buffer zone against Islamic expansion in the region.

About the author: He Wen Ping is Chair of the Institute of West Asian & African Studies at the Chinese Academy of Social Science.



 作者:贺文萍 中国社会科学院西亚非洲研究所非洲室主任


  2月7日,南苏丹超过98%的选民选择了独立。而美国总统奥巴马在第一时间表示要承认这一新的独立主权国家。白宫还传来了有关国务卿希拉里将应邀访问苏丹的消息,这将是近年来访问苏丹的最高级别的美国政府官员。


  南苏丹公投的如期、和平、顺利进行,美国与苏丹关系的缓和被美国政府自豪地解读为 “美国的苏丹新战略”成功实施的证明。和以往主要靠“制裁”、“孤立”的“大棒”政策有所不同的是,这项于 2010年9月由奥巴马政府宣布的新战略在继续保持对苏丹惯有的威慑外交的同时,引入了“鼓励”、“奖赏”和“接触”的“胡萝卜”政策。美国国务院明确表示,苏丹新战略的要点就是要“完全和适时地落实苏丹北南《全面和平协议》,从而实现苏丹2011年后的和平或有序实现两个‘独立且能生存的国家和平共处’,结束粗暴干涉人权和种族屠杀行为,确保苏丹不再成为国际恐怖分子的安全港”。如果苏丹在这些方面的表现令美国满意,则美国“胡萝卜”的箩筐中会依次释放出“把苏丹从支恐国家名单中解除、提高对苏丹的援助和减免苏丹债务、部分甚至全部解除对苏丹的制裁”,最近美国还联手法国认真考虑非洲联盟所提出的延缓实施国际刑事法院向苏丹总统巴希尔发出的各项指控和逮捕令。


  当然,美国也没有忘记继续向苏丹政府发出预警。希拉里称,在未来南苏丹走向独立的6个月过渡期内,北苏丹须继续保持配合(言下之意“不能横生枝节”),严格执行有关和平协议以及公投后的安排。其他高官此前也一再威胁称,如若苏丹的表现不令美国满意,则苏丹可能面临制裁等“严重后果”。


  以上种种,不难发现,虽然美国也把反恐、推动人权等“主张”加进其“苏丹新战略”之中,实质上确保南苏丹独立才是美国苏丹新战略的要义。而这一战略目标背后凸显的是,美国对苏丹丰富石油资源的觊觎以及防止北苏丹伊斯兰政权及其影响进一步向黑非洲渗透和扩张的双重长远战略考虑。


  众所周知,苏丹拥有丰富的石油和天然气资源,保守估计至少有80亿-100亿桶,而其中绝大多数石油储藏都在南苏丹。曾于上世纪70-80年代在苏丹勘探和开采石油的谢夫隆、埃克森等美国各大型石油公司,因美国政府对苏丹实施制裁而不得不远离这一资源宝库。多年来,美国政府及各大美国石油公司一直不甘心做苏丹石油开发的看客,早就希望重返苏丹。如今,南苏丹的即将独立将使美国石油公司率先突破“制裁”令的禁锢,推动该地区石油资源的重新分配和洗牌。


  从地缘政治和防止伊斯兰势力扩张的角度看,“9·11”事件后苏丹独特地理位置对于美国全球反恐战的地缘政治意义凸显。美在非洲的反恐战主要集中在非洲之角和撒哈拉中西部地区,苏丹是连结上述两片地区的重要纽带。自20世纪90年代中期以来,本·拉登及“基地”组织曾以苏丹为基地,策划多起针对美国目标的恐怖主义袭击。加之苏丹巴希尔政权的伊斯兰属性(北苏丹98%的民众都是穆斯林),美国政府担心伊斯兰极端恐怖组织会借道苏丹向黑非洲地区大规模渗透。因此,一个世俗的、信仰基督教和非洲传统宗教、独立的南苏丹则无疑可以成为抵挡伊斯兰势力扩张的缓冲区和屏障。
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