Why Bin Laden Is No Longer America’s “No. 1 Enemy”

Published in Sina
(China) on 11 February 2011
by Zhang Guoqing (link to originallink to original)
Translated from by Liangzi He. Edited by Hoishan Chan.
Entering a new year, the Obama administration has declared a lot of new claims; besides the statement to revitalize the economy, the most striking claim was from the National Counterterrorism Center on Feb. 9, which announced that the greatest threat to America’s national security is no longer al-Qaida’s founder Osama bin Laden, but a Yemeni Islamic preacher, Anwar al-Awlaki.

It should be said that Obama has “washed off” the former Bush administration’s agenda with considerable effort; it has not only changed the subject from Iraq to Afghanistan, but also replaced its top enemy bin Laden with Anwar al-Awlaki.

Every dog has its day. In fact, bin Laden’s replacement stems from America’s counter-terrorism needs. Regarding this “personnel change,” NCTC stated that the reason for al-Awlaki’s replacement of bin Laden was that the former is adept in recruiting terrorists in America. It is said that Anwar al-Awlaki can speak English, so he can communicate with Americans, and he can publicize his opinions through the Internet. These traits of al-Awlaki make U.S. citizens consider him a more terrifying symbol than bin Laden.

Homegrown terrorism has become America’s mortal malady; terrorists who are rated as “America-savvy” are thorns in the flesh to Americans. Prior to this, the FBI claimed that al-Qaida’s new “America-savvy” leader Adnan Gulshair el Shukrijumah has lived in the U.S. for 15 years and carries a green card. American investigators said that Shukrijumah has made attacking America his “life goal,” and he knows the American system and lifestyle very well. Before joining al-Qaida, he was a student in community college who loved computer science and chemistry courses. These are hallmarks of people who are most likely to initiate terrorist attacks within America.

It is worth mentioning that last month bin Laden called on France to withdraw its troops from Afghanistan in exchange for the release of French hostages through a recording; otherwise he would “attack French targets at home or abroad.” A few days ago, the French intelligence agency released a memo which said that over 100 Europeans were being trained by al-Qaida in the border areas of Pakistan and Afghanistan.

However, the relegation of bin Laden to second place doesn’t mean that he’s not important. From the psychological perspective of counter-terrorism, bin Laden has become a symbol whose influence will be difficult to eradicate in the short term, and fighting against a “symbol” is much harder than fighting against the organizational entity of al-Qaida. In view of this, diluting the symbolic significance of bin Laden has become a strategy for psychological warfare. Apart from this, the U.S. has been hunting Bin Laden for 10 years without any luck, and they have learned that continuing to hunt him down will do no good except to painfully increase the embarrassment of the U.S. government.

From a strategic point of view, fighting against a “symbol” is much less effective than combating a man of “practical action.” Although bin Laden postures himself against the U.S. every once in a while, terrorist activities in recent years have mostly been implemented by his assistants; he simply maintains enough influence and control. In this aspect, bin Laden has been a considerable headache for the U.S.

From the viewpoint of the upcoming elections, the Obama administration has replaced the “No. 1 headache” with al-Awlaki out of fear that al-Awlaki will threaten homeland security. If so, Obama will lose the votes of those who place a premium on homeland security. In the face of the current economic crisis, this is inconceivable.


张国庆:拉登为何不再是美“头号敌人”
http://www.sina.com.cn 2011年02月11日01:43 新京报

摘要:从战略上看,与一个“符号”作战,真的不如与一个有“实际行动”的人交锋来得痛快,也更有效率。

  进入新的一年,奥巴马政府有了很多新说法,除去在振兴经济方面的说法,最引人注目的,是2月9日美国国家反恐中心(NCTC)称,美国安全最大的威胁不再是“基地”组织领导人本·拉登,而是具有也门国籍的伊斯兰传教士安瓦尔·奥拉基。

  应该说,奥巴马对布什政策的“换洗”力度相当大,不仅将伊拉克主题换成了阿富汗主题,此番更是将头号敌人从拉登换成奥拉基。

  十年河东,十年河西。拉登的被让位,其实是源于美国的反恐需要。对这次的“人事变动”,NCTC的说法是,奥拉基之所以取代本·拉登的位置,是因他长于在美国本土招募恐怖分子。据称,安瓦尔·奥拉基会讲英语,可以与当地人直接沟通,还会利用网络宣传自己的观点。这对美国人来说,要比已逐渐演变成“符号”的拉登更可怕。

  本土恐怖主义已成美国的心腹大患,而那些堪称“美国通”的恐怖分子,更是美国人的肉中刺。此前,FBI曾指称“基地”新头目舒凯里朱马赫是一个在美国生活15年并拥有绿卡的“美国通”。美国调查人员称,舒凯里朱马赫以袭击美国作为自己的“毕生目标”,并且熟知美国体制和生活方式,在加入“基地”组织前,他还是一名酷爱电脑与化学课程的社区学院学生。这些都是最容易对美国本土发动恐怖袭击的标志性特征。

  值得一提的是,上个月,本·拉登曾在一份录音中要求法国从阿富汗撤军,以换取人质获释,否则将“无论在法国国内还是国外,对法国目标发动攻击”。日前,法国情报机构备忘录称,超过100名欧洲人正在巴基斯坦和阿富汗边境地区接受“基地”培训。

  不过,本·拉登退居次席,并不意味着他的分量减轻。从反恐心理上看,拉登现在已成为一种象征,其“符号”作用将很难在短时间内消失,与这种“符号”作战的难度,将远大于和“基地”组织实体的斗争难度。鉴于此,淡化拉登的符号意义,成为心理战的选择,更何况,追捕了十年也不见踪影,继续盯着他,只会徒增美国政府的尴尬。

  从战略上看,与一个“符号”作战,真的不如与一个有“实际行动”的人交锋来得痛快,也更有效率。尽管拉登仍然时不时地亮相,但这些年来,大多数恐怖活动是由他的助手具体实施的,他只是保持足够的影响力和控制力。在这方面,拉登已足够让美国头疼了。

  从选战的角度看,奥巴马政府将“头疼一号”更换为奥拉基,也是担心后者会给美国的国土安全制造大麻烦。如是,奥巴马就会失去很多看重本土安全的选民的信任。这在经济不举的情况下,是不可想象的。

  □张国庆(学者)
This post appeared on the front page as a direct link to the original article with the above link .

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