Democracy Will Break Tradition in the Middle East

The winds of change in the Middle East are blowing at full speed. The Arab world has gone down a road where there is no turning back. The Arab peoples, who mostly follow breaking developments through the Al Jazeera TV channel, are now pouring into the streets one after another. They are asking, “Why do we not do what the Egyptian people did?” and rightfully so. As these rapid developments are happening, it is quite interesting to watch the “storm” of change in the region from Qatar, because the headquarters of Al Jazeera, the media organization who greatly contributed to the spread of the storm, is located there. For now, the capital, Doha, remains peaceful and prosperous. But we cannot know what time has in store. While Saudi Arabia is watching the developments in uneasy silence, Iran, Yemen, Bahrain, Libya, Algeria and Jordan have grown unstable.

Meanwhile, despite all the excitement, the winds of change bring with them big risks. The numbers of casualties in Libya and Bahrain are high. We hope these popular movements will not be put down with blood. Otherwise, the whole region may be soaked in blood. For the U.S., who is watching the developments in serious helplessness, the situation is very difficult. Bahrain, just like Egypt, is strategically very important for the U.S.; for example, it hosts the U.S.’ most important naval body in the Gulf, the 5th Fleet. Another factor that challenges the U.S. is the fact that the majority of the population in Bahrain is Shiite, while the ruling house is Sunni. The Shiite people rightfully feel oppressed by the Sunni administration.

There is systematic discrimination in Bahrain, which makes things more difficult for Washington. The democratic way requires the U.S. to condemn Bahrain. What if Bahrain tells the U.S., who is condemning it, to leave? What would happen if the U.S. left Bahrain, who in turn entered the Iranian area of influence? If Iran gained strength in the Gulf, what would Qatar and Saudi Arabia do?

All these tough questions are the reason why Washington is having a tough time taking sides and maintaining a clear position. Of course, the U.S. is accused of hypocrisy because it does not openly criticize Bahrain while taking a much harder stance towards Iran and Libya when they use force against their people. When developments are so outside U.S. control, it is hard not to be surprised when people blame the U.S. for the changes in the region. For example, a commentator on NTV Turkiye, which produces relatively higher quality shows, recently made an absurd comment such as, “It looks like the U.S. sacrificed Mubarak to cause unrest in Iran.” There is no other choice than to wish these people logic and wisdom.

So what is Turkey’s policy? The AKP administration has held a brave and consistent pro-democracy position. But will it continue to have this attitude towards Libya, Iran, and Bahrain? Iran is especially a serious test for Turkey.

You may remember that the Ahmedinejad administration used brutal force against protestors in Tehran after fraud allegations for the 2009 elections. Hundreds of people died or were injured. Thousands of people were tortured in prisons. Turkey did not do anything then. Turkey was even the first country to congratulate Ahmedinejad on winning the elections.

Thankfully, Turkey somewhat made up for this mistake. President Abdullah Gul, who happened to be on an official visit to Iran last week when hundreds of thousands of people poured into the streets again, mustered the courage to speak of “regimes who cannot respond to the people’s requests having difficulty.” Of course, Iran did not like this. Just like it did in Egypt, Turkey was discreetly interfering in Iran’s domestic politics. The most ironic part of this incident was that, within the same week, Ankara sent the “do not meddle in our domestic politics” message to the U.S. ambassador. One thing is for sure: the wave of democracy in the Middle East necessitates a change in the classic understanding of “stay out of our domestic affairs.” The governments must learn to use a different principle in defending themselves.