America’s Double-Edged Sword and “Unrequited Love”

Published in China Daily
(China) on 23 February 2011
by Wang Yusheng (link to originallink to original)
Translated from by Liangzi He. Edited by Hoishan Chan.
Not long ago, during the Indian National Day, the United States formally lifted its limit on the export of technology by Indian defense and aerospace industry companies, in place since India’s nuclear tests began in 1998. The U.S. even removed nine Indian arms sales export companies from its blacklist and welcomed India to the “club” of states that enforce control of arms exports, transforming it from a “punished one” to a “punisher.”

Recently, U.S. Commerce Secretary Gary Locke led representatives of over 20 U.S. companies, including Boeing, Lockheed Martin, Westinghouse and other military enterprises, in claiming that the end of Indian military export limits was “a significant milestone in reinforcing the India-U.S. strategic partnership.”

Many people wondered: “Why is the United States doing so? To vie for the Indian arms market or to contain China?”

As a matter of fact, the United States intends to kill two birds with one stone.

In the first place, it paved the way for U.S. arms manufacturers:

From the time when the U.S. plunged into financial crisis in 2008, U.S. arms manufacturers alone have continued thriving, living a “happy spring.” The Indian arms market is a big pie, and Russia has been its traditional supplier. Now India is seeking to strengthen its military power, cooperating militarily with other states and diversifying military procurement, which is the perfect opportunity for the U.S. to sneak in. Last year, Obama negotiated more than $100 million (126 multi-purpose medium fighters) in military sales with India when visiting the country, but these plans have not been implemented yet. Between Feb. 9 and Feb. 13, India held its 2011 Air Show in Bangalore, and the U.S. hastily announced the end of limits to Indian military exports before the show, which not only highlighted the U.S. effort in winning the huge orders but also emphasized its competition with Russia and France in selling more advanced weapons, including the F-35 fighter aircraft.

Second, for America’s global strategy and geopolitical considerations:

From the view of U.S. mainstream media propaganda, it’s inconceivable to argue that this move was not to hook India in but to contain China. However, America’s attempts are multifold. Economically, it aims to increasingly attract the India market; politically, it can stir up tensions among India, China and Russia through this move, benefiting itself by weakening the trilateral cooperation between the BIRC countries among China, Russia and India. Additionally, from the aspect of the “war on terrorism” in Afghanistan, it wants India’s help.

Apparently, the U.S. is enjoying a beautiful dream. But whether this dream will come true or not depends on many uncertain factors and insurmountable “obstacles,” including the traditional China-India and India-Russia relationships, and its own rivalry with Russia and other countries. If France wants a share, then Russia will not hand over its traditional arms market easily. It is said that Russia distinguished itself at the India Air Show, and it’s possible that India has already negotiated an agreement regarding the most advanced aircrafts with Russia; India has hinted that it is not interested in America’s F-35 aircraft. Some people lampooned America’s plan to surpass Russia in India’s arms market as an “unrequited love,” which is not ungrounded.

(Wang Yusheng, executive director at the Center for Strategic Studies, China Foundation for International Studies; edited by Chen Lu)


美国一箭双雕和“单相思”

2011-02-23 15:54:46 来源:中国日报网

不久前,在印度国庆节之际,美国正式解除了1998年印度核试验开始后对印度国防和航天业公司的技术出口禁令,将九家印度的机构从军售出口管制的黑名单上删除了,并表示欢迎印度加入军备出口管制国“俱乐部”,让印度从“被制裁者”变为“制裁者”。

近日,美国商务部长骆家辉率领20多家美国大公司的代表,其中包括波音、洛克希德马丁和西屋电气等军工企业。骆家辉称,美国解除对印军售禁令是“加强美印战略关系的重要里程碑”。

不少朋友问:美国这是为哪桩?是为了争夺印度军火市场,还是为了遏制中国?

其实,美国是一箭双雕。

首先,当然是为美国军火商开路。

2008年美国爆发金融危机以来,美国军火工业继续一枝独秀,过着“快乐的春天”。印度军火市场是一块大蛋糕,俄罗斯一直是传统的供应国。现在印度谋求加强军事力量,实行军事合作和军购多元化,美国正好乘机而入。奥巴马去年访印已大体上谈好100多亿美元(126架多用途中型战斗机)的军售,但还没有落实。2月9-13日,印度在班加罗尔举行了2011年印度航空展,美国抢在这以前高调宣布解除对印度的军售令,不仅着眼于最终拿下这笔巨额订单,还着眼于同俄罗斯和法国博弈,卖出更多先进的武器,包括战机F-35。

第二,出于全球战略和地缘政治的考虑。

从美国主流媒体的宣传导向看来,如果说美国此举没有拉拢印度牵制中国的意图,那是无法令人相信的。但美国的图谋是多方面的。经济上,它需要越来越吸引人的印度市场;政治上,它可以借此挑拨中印和印俄关系,以利于它削弱“金砖国家”组织和中、俄、印三边合作。此外,在阿富汗“反恐战争”方面,它也需要印度助一臂之力。

看来,美国想得很美。但是否能如愿以偿,还有很多不确定因素和难以逾越的“障碍”,包括传统的中印和印俄关系,以及它与俄罗斯等国的博弈。法国要想分一杯羹,俄罗斯更不会轻易把传统军火市场拱手相让。据说,俄罗斯这次在印度航展上大显身手,印俄可能已谈好一笔最先进飞机的合作;印度放风说,它对美国战机F-35兴趣不大。有人讽刺说,美国图谋迅速超越俄罗斯在印度的军火市场是“单相思”,并非没有一些道理。

(王嵎生 中国国际问题研究基金会战略研究中心执行主任 编辑:陈璐)
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