Inflationary Pressure Defeated Obama’s Bullet Train by “Deficit Aversion Disorder”

Published in Nanfang Daily
(China) on 18 March 2011
by Chen Yongjie (link to originallink to original)
Translated from by Liangzi He. Edited by Gillian Palmer.
Obama, who has always wanted to build high-speed railways across the United States, has been having a hard time since he was elected; his bullet train plan has been vetoed after having been discussed in Florida for a while. On the grounds of the difficulty in bearing the potential cost overrun and subsidies, the Florida state government rejected the federal government’s proposal to build the first high-speed rail in the U.S. between Tampa and Orlando. In the $2.6 billion budget plan, the federal government intends to pay for the bulk of $2.4 billion; even so, the Florida state government finally refused the proposal, which was upheld by Florida’s Supreme Court.

A few days ago, U.S. Secretary of Transportation Ray LaHood claimed that the $2.4 billion fund can be applied by other states that attempt to build high-speed rails. By this token, Obama apparently has not given up, but in the short term, he should not have much hope in letting the bullet train run again. This plan has been hard evidence for Republicans to criticize him for overspending money.

The rail plan comes from a $787 billion economic stimulus plan put forward when Obama took office. Building infrastructure to save the economy during an economic recession is what Obama learned from Roosevelt. Thus, there was a huge amount of funding earmarked for infrastructure construction in this economic stimulus plan. However, the infrastructure investment has been used to patch the existing roads and bridges two years after the appropriation. The Obama administration worried that there would be a small amount of projects being put forward, which made it difficult for the government to report to taxpayers; therefore, they decided to apply $8 billion to laying tracks and building high-speed rails. Nevertheless, there’s only a few choices for the White House; there are only two states that are well-prepared for high-speed rail building — California and Florida. For California, the plan is to build a high-speed rail over 220 mph between Los Angeles and San Francisco, but the tantalizing plan needs a gross investment of $42 billion and will be completed in 2020 at the fastest pace. On the contrary, Florida’s plan is not as expensive; the plan to build a high-speed rail between Tampa and Orlando is budgeted at $2.6 billion, and the project can be completed in 2015.

The Obama administration chose the latter. Proponents for the choice think that the first high-speed rail should mainly play the role of testing and demonstration, so the low cost, low risk, quick turnover Florida rail should be the first choice. In addition, high-speed rail is obviously more environmentally friendly and energy efficient, which should be realized as soon as possible. However, opponents of Obama have different opinions, which are mainly divided into conspiracy theory and realistic theory. The former theory holds that this is Obama’s “vanity project,” since if he manages to remain in office, he’ll still be president in 2015, when the railway is completed. More importantly, Florida is a “swing state”; people who live in Tampa and Orlando are independent voters, which means that the plan is to brazenly “buy” voters using the federal government’s money. The realist theory posits that the Florida railway is too short to have economic benefit.

The realist theory that won public support, analyzes that the two cities are too close to each other, which makes the high-speed rail less meaningful and worthy of detailed analysis. The distance between Tampa and Orlando is only 84 miles, which approximately equals the distance of the Guangzhou-Shenzhen high-speed railway in China, and it takes only 1.5 hours to drive through the railway; even though building a high-speed rail between the two cities will make it possible for cars to drive at 168 mph theoretically, they can only reach 100 mph because of several stops along the way. Thus, a high-speed rail cannot save time for the transportation between the two cities. There are also the inconveniences of high-speed railway public transportation, like the long intervals between buses, low-speed commuter rail networks, too many transfers, etc. Therefore, local people generally believed that a high-speed railway couldn’t speed up their life pace but may lose money due to lack of passengers and let taxpayers pay for the bill. The right-wing Washington Times hallooed for the bankruptcy of Florida’s high-speed rail after knowing the adjudication of Florida’s Supreme Court, rejoicing that governors of this generation speak straight and don’t let their voters “be high-speed railed.”

The Obama administration plans to appropriate $53 billion in six years, but currently the only choice for him — the California plan — can spend all the money at once. Finalizing the plan is easier said than done. Facing the tea party movement and under the pressure of high inflation, U.S. citizens obviously have a “deficit aversion disorder” and even “deficit phobia.” If this situation continues, Obama’s bullet train will be put off over and over again.


通胀压力,奥巴马子弹高铁不敌“赤字厌恶症”
2011-03-18 10:26 21世纪经济报道

现实派认为,佛州高铁太短,毫无经济效益可言

特约评论员 陈永杰

对于从当选开始就一直希望在美国兴建高速铁路的奥巴马,最近可并不好受,他的子弹列车计划仅在佛罗里达州飞了一会儿,就被否决了。佛罗里达州州政府以难以承担高铁项目的潜在超支及补贴为由,拒绝联盟政府提议的在坦帕与奥兰多之间修建全美首条高速铁路的计划。在该项预算为26亿美元的计划中,联盟政府打算出大头的24亿,即便如此,佛州政府最后还是拒绝,此决定还得到佛州高院的支持。

日前,美国交通部长拉胡德宣布,这24亿美元的资金可供其他有意兴建高铁的州申请。由此看来,奥巴马显然还没死心,但是短期而言,他应该没有太大的希望重新让子弹列车再飞起来了,并且此事已经成为共和党政敌批评他“乱花钱”的又一铁证。

一切得从奥巴马上台时的7870亿美元刺激经济计划说起。在经济衰退之时以兴建基础设施挽救经济,这是奥巴马从罗斯福那里抄来的招数。因此,在这个刺激经济计划中早就预留了一笔用于基础设施的巨额经费。但是,两年以来,放在基建上的投资多数用在了修修补补现有路桥的工程之中。奥巴马政府担心没有一些明显的大量项目出台,无法跟纳税人交差,于是决定把其中的80亿美元用到铺设铁轨和兴建高铁之上。然而,白宫拥有的选择并不多。在兴建高铁方面有充分准备的州份只有两个,一个是加州,另一个就是佛罗里达州。加州的计划是在洛杉矶和三藩市之间建一条时速在220英里以上的高铁,不过,这个很诱人的计划总投资须420亿美元,并且最快也得2020年才能建成。佛罗里达州的计划则没有这么雄心勃勃,打算在坦帕与奥兰多之间建高铁,预算只是26亿美元,并且2015年可以建成。

奥巴马政府选择了后者。认同其决定的意见会认为,作为全美首条高铁,主要是起试验及示范作用,因此成本低、风险小、见效快的佛州高铁当然应该是首选。并且,高铁显然更为环保节能,此国策应该越早见真章越佳。但是,反对奥巴马的意见则有不同的看法。主要分阴谋论和现实派两类。阴谋派的观点认为这是奥巴马的“政绩工程”,因为如果他能连任,2015年建成时还是总统。更重要的是,佛州是个摇摆州,从坦帕到奥兰多一线更主要是独立选民,这明显是在用联邦政府的钱来“买”选票。现实派的观点则认为佛州高铁太短,毫无经济效益可言。

赢得民意支持的现实派的分析,其核心内容是两市距离太近,高铁意义不大,值得详细分析。坦帕与奥兰多只有84英里,约等于广深高速的距离,开车也就一个半小时左右,在两市间设一条高铁虽说能最高达到168英里的时速,但由于其中要下几个站,实际时速只有100英里左右。如此一来,高铁并不能使两市间的交通时间减省太多。加上高铁站的配套公共交通不便,比如说巴士的间隔太久,通勤铁路网的速度太慢、接驳太多等。当地人普遍认为高铁未能为生活提速,但却有可能因此而不够乘客,亏损要州纳税人埋单。右翼报纸《华盛顿时报》在得知佛州高院的裁决后,为佛州高铁计划的破产高呼道“美国应该庆幸,这一代有话直说的州长们,不会打算让自己的选民‘被高铁’”。

奥巴马政府计划在六年内一共为高铁的兴建拨款530亿,但眼下能供他选择的加州计划就差不多能把这笔钱一次花清光。要敲定谈何容易?在茶党运动兴起,通胀压力如此高的情况下,美国人明显产生了赤字厌恶症甚至是赤字恐惧症,再往此方向走下去,奥巴马的子弹列车只能是一再打飞。
This post appeared on the front page as a direct link to the original article with the above link .

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