Will France, Britain and America Wage a Ground War in Libya?

Published in Xinhua News
(China) on 21 March 2011
by Zhang Xinghui (link to originallink to original)
Translated from by Qu Xiao. Edited by Alex Brewer.
On March 19, the Libyan War broke out. One side of the war is a grand army consisting of France, Britain, America and Libyan anti-government armed forces; their opponent is Gadhafi and his lonely government army, or plus a few of his supporters perhaps. The West does not call it a war even though the missiles are raging, flames are burning the sky and people are dying; instead, they think of a pretty name for it: Operation Odyssey Dawn. But in Gadhafi’s words it doesn’t sound that poetic. He calls it with direct clarity “the crusaders’ invasion.”

The war in Libya is the biggest military operation conducted by the West against the Muslim world in the Middle East and North Africa since the Iraq War in 2003. Before the war broke out, America and its European allies were acting in accord — posting military threats publicly, making military mobilizations and deployments and then conducting a military strike. They are so confident that they entirely look down upon their opponent. And their excuse for the air raid is even more “ingenious” — without military support the common people who are under the oppression of the dictatorship in Libya cannot be protected.

The Libyan War, however, differs from the Iraq War on one point — that is, regarding Iraq, the leading role was played by America, Britain was simply following and France insisted on the opposite direction. This time, however, concerning Libya, Britain and France snatched the main role and left America merely cooperating. American President Obama said that the U.S. supports its allies in their military operations without taking the lead. In fact, it’s not that America doesn’t want to be a leader, but rather that it costs a high price to be in such a position. The wars in Iraq and Afghanistan have given America a good taste of being a leader, so it would be better just to give the spotlight to Sarkozy this time. In the case of Libya, France is running up front. Apart from trying to gain dominance in the waves of democratization in the North African countries, what Sarkozy values the most is the upcoming French presidential election in 2012. Therefore, his attempt at making a scene in Libya is just his trick to win over voters at home.

The air raids carried out by France, Britain and America were based on a decision of the UN Security Council passed on March 17. The aim was to set up a no-fly zone to protect the common people there. Yet the international community knows very well that the real intention of America and its European allies is to overthrow the Gadhafi government and spread Western democracy in Libya. So the first question proposed itself immediately: Will Gadhafi step down willingly? King Ben Ali of Tunisia has escaped to Saudi Arabia and former Egyptian president Mubarak was deprived of power by his people. If Gadhafi chooses one of these two options willingly, the Western allies would lose their excuse for further military interference in Libya. But the issue is that Gadhafi is a hard nut to crack; he will not lower his noble head to the invaders, but would rather call for his people to stand firmly on their mother land and protect their home in the sea of fire.

Now another question pops up: Will France, Britain and America wage ground warfare? Everyone knows that only air raids can hardly beat Gadhafi down unless he himself steps down willingly. Back when America caught Saddam, it was by way of sending in ground troops. On March 19, after attending the Libya Summit in Paris hosted by Sarkozy, Canadian Prime Minister Harper indicated that the Western allies’ strategy is to fight against Gadhafi’s government army and then let the anti-government force beat him down and obtain the power. During the summit, some held the opinion that if Gadhafi insists on not stepping down himself, ground warfare is inevitable.

If ground warfare really begins, will Libya be another Afghanistan? It has been 10 years since America started the war against Afghanistan in 2001, and the Western democracy advocated by America over there still hasn’t gained a firm foothold. But now the situation is that there are big differences and constant arguing between America and its European allies concerning Libya. If the three countries send armies and occupy Libya, it would be against the decision of the UN Security Council; what’s more, it would put an unbearable “Afghanistan-style burden” on the shoulders of the Western allies.


19日,“利比亚战争”爆发了。交战的一方气势磅礴——法英美等西方强国再加上利比亚反政府武装;另一方则势单力孤——卡扎菲及其政府军,充其量再加上一些卡扎菲的个人崇拜者。导弹狂飞、火光连天、人员伤亡,但欧美等西方国家却不称其为战争,而是给它取了个漂亮的代号“奥德赛黎明行动”;卡扎菲的用词就没那么多诗情画意了,直截了当地称之为“十字军入侵”。

此次战争是2003年伊拉克战争以来,欧美强国在中东北非穆斯林世界发动的规模最大的军事行动。欧美联盟在战争前采取的策略如出一辙——公开进行军事威胁、军事动员、军事部署,然后再进行军事打击。好像诸葛亮七擒孟获一样胸有成竹,公开地完全不把对手放在眼里;发动空袭的理由更是一般无二——不动用军事手段就无法保护“专制政权蹂躏下的普通人民”。

然而,有一点却明显不同。伊拉克战争是美国牵头亲自上阵,英国亦步亦趋,法国大唱反调。而这次却是法英主演,美国配合。美国总统奥巴马说,美国支持盟国的军事行动,但“不当领导”。其实,美国不是不想当领导,而是当领导的代价太高。伊拉克和阿富汗两场战争已使美国饱尝了“领导滋味”,这第三次还是让给爱出风头的萨科齐为好。法国这次一马当先,除了想主导北非国家的民主化浪潮,萨科齐更看重的,还是即将进行的2012年总统大选,也试图通过在利比亚有所作为换取法国民众的支持。

法英美空袭的依据是17日通过的联合国安理会决议,目的是通过在利比亚设立禁飞区保护那里的平民。但国际社会十分清楚,欧美联盟的真实目的其实是让卡扎菲下台并在利比亚推行西方民主制度。那么,第一个问题马上就出现了——卡扎菲会主动下台吗?突尼斯国王本·阿里逃到了沙特阿拉伯,埃及总统穆巴拉克下野回了家。如果卡扎菲愿意选择其一,法英美至少失去了继续对利比亚动武的借口。但问题是卡扎菲个性鲜明,不肯“向列强低下自己高贵的头”,而宁愿号召“利比亚人民在一片火海中寸土不让地保卫利比亚国土”。

这样一来,下一个问题又显而易见——法英美会发动地面战吗?谁都清楚,仅靠空袭是很难逼卡扎菲下台的,除非他主动这么做。当年美军活捉萨达姆,靠的也是地面部队。19日,在巴黎参加了萨科齐主持的利比亚峰会后,加拿大总理哈珀暗示,欧美的策略是打击卡扎菲的军队,然后让反政府武装反扑夺权。此间有分析认为,如果卡扎菲坚持不下台,法英美发动地面战在所难免。

如果地面战打响,利比亚会阿富汗化吗?2001年美国发动阿富汗战争,现在都10年了,西方推行的民主制度仍没有站稳脚跟。但美国和欧洲盟国却分歧严重,彼此争吵不断。如果法英美出兵占领利比亚,不仅违反了联合国安理会决议,而且还会使西方国家背上沉重的“阿富汗式包袱”。
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