Osama Bin Laden’s Death, a Great Victory for the U.S.

Published in Huanqiu
(China) on 2 May 2011
by Yang Shu (link to originallink to original)
Translated from by Sharon Chiao. Edited by Michelle Harris  .
Osama bin Laden has been killed; if Obama said this, then it’s probably true. If the U.S. has verified that bin Laden is dead, then it ought to say that this will possibly directly affect America’s security policies and even some of its global strategy issues — in particular, its regional policies in South Asia and Afghanistan, as the U.S.’ relations with these countries will be affected. When America began its war on terrorism in Afghanistan, its main purpose was to eliminate al-Qaida and bin Laden. Thus, regardless of how bin Laden was killed, this result is a great victory for the U.S.

On the other hand, whether or not al-Qaida is able to, in a short period of time, find another leader to take the place of bin Laden is a very important problem. I do not believe that this is possible, because al-Qaida still lacks this sort of foundation. The physical state of al-Qaida’s second-in-command, Ayman al-Zawahiri, is unclear. However, to a considerable degree, Ayman al-Zawahiri now plays an even larger role in many things, so it’s hard to say.

From another perspective, this situation is definitely a severe blow for al-Qaida, the Taliban and other terrorist organizations; therefore, many countries will need to thoroughly think about their foreign policies regarding this region. In particular, Middle Eastern countries — like Pakistan and Iran — that border Afghanistan will definitely be pondering over their foreign policies. Al-Qaida’s presence in the turbulent border regions of Afghanistan and Pakistan has been weak for a long time. These circumstances, namely bin Laden’s death, will limit al-Qaida’s actions. This is obviously good for regional security.

It’s worth noting that we cannot over-generalize and think of the Taliban as one terrorist organization. Moreover, we have now differentiated between the Afghan Taliban and the Pakistani Taliban; these two groups are very different from each other.

Regardless of how it’s said, bin Laden is dead, and this is a great victory for America. This is most likely the greatest victory for America since the war on terror began in 2001, because the U.S. has already spread its domestic security strategy to Afghanistan. In view of how important bin Laden’s death is, America will most likely rethink and adjust policies regarding its domestic security strategy and its global strategy.





本拉登被打死,如果是奥巴马说的话,那应该是比较确实了。如果说美国方面证实本拉登已经死了,那应该说,很可能会直接影响到美国的安全政策,甚至是它的一些全球战略问题。特别是它在南亚和阿富汗这些地方的地区政策,以及它跟这些地区国家的关系都会受到影响。因为美国当时在阿富汗发动反恐战争,最主要的目的就是要消灭基地组织和本拉登本人。所以,不管本拉登是以什么方式被消灭的,这个结果都是美国的一次胜利。


  从另外一方面来讲,基地组织内部短期内能否产生一个取代本拉登的领袖,这是需要首先关注的问题。我的看法是不大可能。因为它还缺乏这样的基础。“基地”组织二号人物扎瓦希里现在怎么样不太清楚。但是从相当程度来讲,扎瓦希里在很多事情上起的作用更大一些。所以这一方面不好说。


  再一个方面,这个事情对基地组织、塔利班以及其他组织来说,肯定是一个不小的打击。那么,对相关国家在这个地区的政策,可能都需要有认真的考虑。特别是像中亚国家、巴基斯坦、伊朗,这些阿富汗周边地区的国家,肯定都会做一些认真思考的。因为很长一段时间“基地”组织在阿富汗、巴基斯坦交界地区的“火种”已经减弱了。在这个情况下,本拉登被打死,它的行动会受到进一步的限制。对地区安全来讲,这显然是一个好事。


  值得注意的是,我们不能笼统地把“塔利班”当成一个恐怖组织,而且我们现在又把它分成了“阿富汗塔利班”和“巴基斯坦塔利班”,这两部分也有很大的差别。


  不管怎么讲,本拉登被打死,这是美国的一个很大的胜利。从2001年发动反恐战争起,这可能是美国最大的胜利了。因为美国已经把它的国内安全战略外延到阿富汗地区了。基于本拉登死亡这种重大事件,美国肯定会对自己的安全战略、全球战略做一番重大的思索,会有一些政策性的调整。
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