Seeking International Solutions for America's Economic Problems

Published in China.com
(China) on 10 May 2011
by Bai Ming (link to originallink to original)
Translated from by Pak Ng. Edited by Sam Carter.
Since China and the United States established the strategic and economic dialogue mechanism in April 2009, both countries have already had two rounds of dialogues. Whether looking at the perspective of seeking cooperation or from the standpoint of resolving conflicts, this Sino-U.S. strategic and economic dialogue mechanism is no doubt an exchange platform between two giants: China, presently the largest developing country in the world, and the United States, currently the largest developed country on earth. It is not an exaggeration if this platform is called G2; therefore, it has a certain nature that cannot be duplicated.

Although other countries cannot copy the Sino-U.S. strategic and economic dialogue mechanism, China and the United States are repeatedly conducting the dialogues one round after another. It was reported that Chinese President Hu Jintao’s special envoys, Vice Premier Wang Qishan and State Councilor Dai Bingguo, already left Beijing for Washington on May 8. They, together with President Obama’s special representatives, Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and Secretary of Treasury Tim Geithner, will co-host the third round of Sino-U.S. strategic and economic dialogue from May 9 to May 10.

When looking at all the topics associated with the third round of Sino-U.S. strategic and economic dialogue, it seems that the contents mainly cover four areas. As I can see, promoting trade and investment cooperation, as well as perfecting the financial system and strengthening financial regulation, are the two subjects that can be easily touched up as stereotypical stuff. On one hand, the issue of renminbi appreciation will continue to be the focus of this dialogue. Even though renminbi appreciation accelerated its rhythm in the past six months, and the reminbi’s exchange rate against U.S. Dollar already made a breakthrough of an important barrier — one U.S. dollar traded for less than 6.5 yuan of renminbi — it looks like that the United States has a much bigger appetite. It has strongly demanded that the Chinese financial regulatory agency permit the renminbi to appreciate at a much faster rate. On the other hand, Sino-U.S. trade friction is also a must-discussed subject in this round of strategic and economic dialogue. China accumulated a $1.02 billion trade deficit in the first quarter this year. This was the first time that China had a quarterly trade deficit in six years. But what the U.S. was more concerned about was whether this recent trade deficit was directed at them. That is to say that as long as it can improve the U.S.’s situation in foreign trade balance, the United States is not concerned whether China’s foreign trade has a surplus or deficit.

Over all, I feel that on the third round of Sino-U.S. strategic and economic dialogue, all the gestures that Americans have made so far indicate that they, as usual, overly pursue self-interests, which is excessively stated when compared with the last two rounds of Sino-U.S. strategic and economic dialogues. In contrast, the United States seems to just walk through perfunctorily on issues of seeking common ground. The reason that the United States side has been so aggressive in this round of Sino-U.S. strategic and economic dialogue is largely due to its consideration on resolving domestic economic issues.

As we all know, after the international financial crisis exploded, what the Americans have been doing for years — focusing on developing a virtual economy but neglecting the tangible economy — was declared impossible to continue, a dead end direction. However, since for many years U.S. domestic spending ability has far exceeded productive capacity, it is in fact not an easy task for Americans to handle the fact that suddenly they have to again adopt a tangible economy, which has been hidden away for a long time. Presently, it looks like even though the U.S. economy was already out of the most difficult period after the explosion of the international financial crisis, such recovery was largely stimulated by, and benefited from, the execution of the quantitative easing monetary policy with zero interest. As a matter of fact, there are so many problems in the current U.S. economy that urgently await a fix. A high unemployment rate and high federal deficit are among the most troublesome problems facing Obama administration.

However, there are always more solutions than issues, and that’s exactly where Uncle Sam shows off his cleverness. In order to bring its current economy out of an awkward and sluggish situation, the U.S. government has been placing its hopes more and more on adjusting international economic relations. Logically speaking, the United States should not be criticized for invigorating its domestic economy by expanding international markets. The United States does it this way, and so too does China, as well as other countries. Two years ago the U.S. Congress passed a law, called by other countries a “Purchase of Goods Made in the U.S.” act, which did its best to not allow other countries to share the commercial opportunities brought by the $780 billion economic stimulus package. Then one year ago the U.S. government passed a five-year plan to double its exports, and the hope is that the expansion of exports will move the U.S. economy forward. Presently, the U.S.’s quantitative easing monetary policy is near its end, and it is critical and imminent that the ways and patterns of economic growth must be changed in an American way. Under such circumstances, there is no doubt that the U.S. side will utilize the third round of Sino-U.S. strategic and economic dialogue platform to push its difficult domestic economic problems toward the world.

It is said that even heaven and earth would find it difficult to accept that a country does not pursue its own interests. However, in practice the United States just wants to benefit itself on the basis of hurting others’ interests — this simply cannot be complimented. But to Americans this is not the first time that they benefit themselves by damaging others’ interests. When Nixon announced 40 years ago that the U.S. dollar would stop having a gold standard, it hurt everyone. Then the U.S. did it again in 25 years ago when it forced Japan to sign the Plaza Accord. Finally, not long ago the U.S. Federal Reserve carried out two rounds of its quantitative easing monetarypPolicy, which, again, harmed other countries’ interests.

The United States is such a country: In order to maximize its national interests, it not only can turn its internal economic problems toward the whole world, but it is also able to upgrade other countries’ internal economic issues as international issues. As revealed from certain American officials prior to the dialogue, the U.S. side will bring up subjects such as credit issuance, the interest market and bank reform during the third round of Sino-U.S. strategic and economic dialogue. Looking from a positional perspective, these issues should be regarded as China’s internal problems, but now it will be “internationalized.” Perhaps this is another way to resolve domestic problems: let them be internationalized. However, the original intention of seeking such a resolution has revealed, to a large degree, America's pragmatism and opportunism hiding behind their unreserved talks of market economy theories.

We are against the U.S. earning profits for itself at the expense of the others during the process of resolving domestic economic problems not because we are afraid of talking about internal issues but because we want to place the internationalization process of both China and the U.S.’s domestic economic problems in a justified, fair framework and seek resolutions. Otherwise, during the process of finding international solutions for both China and the U.S.’s domestic economic issues, China will fall into a unilateral situation where all matters will be centered around Americans’ national interest. Thus the base of a win-win situation will disappear and the significance of this dialogue will be greatly reduced. In fact, many problems facing either China or the United States can be regarded as each other’s internal issues as well common international issues. Looking at the present situation, it seems that both China and the United States have made great efforts domestically in regard to developing low-carbon economy, promoting environmental protection and developing new energy. Therefore, the third topic of this round of Sino-U.S. strategic and economic dialogue will focus on pushing the economies moving forward strongly and sustainably and keep them in balance. At the same time, European sovereign debt crisis, as well as Middle East and North Africa’s situation, will have impact on regional and world economy, while Japan’s exceptionally big natural disaster will bring challenges to the current state of the macro economy. If both China and the United States took these commonly concerned domestic issues to international forums and seek solutions, it will largely allow each party to utilize its own advantage and to overcome one's weaknesses with the other’s strength; it is thus possible to yield twice the result with half the effort. This is just another topic that should be addressed in this round of Sino-U.S. strategic and economic dialogue.

As we review all topics for the third round of Sino-U.S. strategic and economic dialogue, it seems that during the process of seeking international solutions for its domestic economic problems, the United States made numerous secret calculations and even was willing to harm other countries’ interests in order to gain profits for itself. However, we should not simply exclude internationalization as a way to resolve domestic economic issues. As a matter of fact, during the economic development process, China also has many problems and cannot extricate itself but has to largely rely on foreign countries to help push forward. It seems now that if the United States can adopt practical measures to relax the restriction of exporting high tech products to China, allow Chinese enterprises to expand investments in the United States and reduce trade barriers, then Chinese companies will be greatly benefited. I should point out that negotiation is an art of compromise. Speaking from this perspective, if the U.S. hopes to discuss and seek solutions to its domestic economic issues at the Sino-U.S strategic and economic dialogue platform, then China should also bring its own domestic economic problems to the dialogue platform and find answers. It would not be appropriate if we do not reciprocate.


自从2009年4月中美两国建立了战略与经济对话机制以来,双方已经进行了两轮对话。无论是从寻求合作还是从解决争端角度来看,作为当今世界最大的发展中 国家与作为当今世界最大的发达国家,中美两国的战略与经济对话机制无疑是巨人之间的交往平台,即使被称之为G2也不足为过,因而具有天然的不可复制性。

虽然其他国家不可能复制中美战略与经济对话机制,但中美两国却不断复制着一轮又一轮的对话。据悉,中国国家主席胡锦涛特别代表国务院副总理王岐山、国务委员戴秉国已于5月8日离开北京前往美国首都华盛顿,与美国总统奥巴马特别代表国务卿希拉里•克林顿和财政部长蒂莫西•盖特纳共同主持5月9日至10日举行的第三轮中美战略与经济对话。

从第三轮中美战略与经济对话所涉及的议题来看,主要包括四个方面的内容。在我看来,关于促进贸易与投资合作与完善金融系统和加强金融监管着两方面的议题比 较容易涉及到“老一套”内容。一方面,人民币升值问题依然是此次对话的焦点。虽然最近半年来人民币升值的节奏加快,人民币对美元汇率已经突破1美元兑换 6.5元人民币的重要关口,但看起来美方的胃口大得很,加紧要求中国金融监管当局允许人民币以更快幅度升值。另一方面,中美贸易摩擦也是这次中美战略与经 济对话的“必选”内容。2011年第一季度我国累计出现10.2亿美元的贸易逆差,这是我国6年来首次出现季度贸易逆差,但美方更关心的是当前的这种逆差 是不是针对美国的贸易逆差。也就是说,只要能够改善美国的对外贸易收支状况,美方并不关心中国的对外贸易出现顺差或者是逆差。

总的感觉是,在第三轮中美战略与经济对话上,美国方面迄今为止所做出的姿态依然体现出过度利己化的追求,而且较以往两轮中美战略与经济对话有过之而无不 及。相比之下,在“求同”方面,似乎也只不过是走走过场。美国方面在这次中美战略与经济对话上之所以如此咄咄逼人,在很大程度上是出于解决美国国内经济问题的考虑。

众所周知,国际金融危机爆发后,美国在前些年一直注重发展虚拟经济而忽视实体经济的路子已经被宣告难以为继。然而,由于多年来美国国内的消费能力远远超前 于产出能力,美国人现在突然要重新拾起“雪藏”已久的实体经济着实不是一件容易办到的事情。现在看来,美国经济虽然已经走出国际金融危机爆发后最艰难的时 期,但这种复苏在很大程度上得益于零利率下量化宽松货币政策的“催肥”作用。事实上,现阶段美国经济中的亟待解决的问题很多,其中,高失业率与高财政赤字 是摆在奥巴马政府面前最为棘手的问题。

不过,办法总比困难多,山姆大叔的聪明之处也恰恰表现于此。为了摆脱近期美国国内经济的灰头土脸之相,美国政府近来越来越把希望寄托在调整国际经济关系之 上。按理来说,美国通过拓展国际市场空间来振兴本国经济本无可厚非,美国如此,中国亦如此,中美两国之外的其他国家也大抵如此。两年前,美国国会通过了一 项被外界称之为“购买美国货”的法案,力图尽可能不让其他国家分享到7870 亿美元振兴经济方案所带来的商业机会。一年前,美国政府有通过了一项五年出口倍增计划,旨在通过国扩大出口来带动美国经济发展。目前,美国的量化宽松政策 已经接近尾声,美国版的“转变经济增长方式”也迫在眉睫。在这种情况下,借助着第三轮中美战略与经济对话平台,美国方面无疑会将其棘手的国内经济问题推向 外部世界。

虽然国不利己,天地难容,但美国在具体做法上却是将“利己”建立在“损人”的基础上,实在令人难以恭维。不过,对于美国人来说,通过“损人”来实现“利 己”已经不是第一次了,40年前尼克松宣布美元停止与黄金挂钩就“损人”了一回,而25年前美国被迫日本签订广场协议又“损人”了一回,而前不久美联储连 续实行两轮量化宽松政策则再“损人”了一回。

美国就是这样一个国家,为了其国家利益的最大化,不仅能够将其内在经济问题推向全世界,而且也会将其他国家的经济问题“升格”为国际问题。从美国官员事先 放出的口风来看,在第三轮中美战略与经济对话过程中,美国方面会对中国方面提出信贷发放、利率市场化以及银行部门改革等议题。从方位上看,这些问题本来应 当是中国的国内问题,但现在就要“被国际化”了,或许这也是国内解决问题的国际化的另类求解吧,只不过这种求解的初衷在很大程度上体现出美国人在满口市场经济大道理背后躲藏的实用主义与机会主义。

我们反对美国在解决国内经济问题过程中以邻为壑的做法并非谈“内”色变,而是要将中美两国各自的国内经济问题的国际化过程纳入一个公平框架来求解。否则, 在中美两国国内经济问题的国际化求解过程中,就会陷入一切以美国的国家利益为核心“一厢情愿”境地,失去了双赢的基础,对话的意义也必然会大打折扣。事实 上,无论是对中国来说,还是对美国来说,很多问题既是各自的国内问题,又是共同的国际问题。目前来看,在发展低碳经济、促进环境保护、开发新能源等方面, 中美两国都在国内下了很大工夫,因而这次中美战略与经济对话的第三项对话议题就聚焦在促进经济强劲、可持续、平衡增长方面。与此同时,欧洲主权债务危机、 中东北非形势对地区和世界经济影响、日本特大自然灾害等大事业对当今全球宏观经济形势带来挑战。如果将这一系列中美两国共同关心的国内问题拿到国际场合求 解,在很大程度上有利于发挥各自所长,争取优势互补,或许能够产生事半功倍之效,这也正是这次中美战略与经济对话的另一个值得关注的议题。

从第三轮中美战略与经济对话的议题来看,在致力于国内经济问题的国际化求解的过程中,虽然美国为自己打了很多“小九九”,甚至不惜损人利己,但对于国内经 济问题的国际化求解并不能简单排斥。事实上,中国经济发展过程中也有诸多问题难以获得自我解脱,在很大程度上需要靠外界助推。现在看来,如果美国能够在放 宽对华出口高技术产品限制、扩大中国企业在美投资准入、减少贸易壁垒等方面采取实际行动,中国企业也会因此而受益颇多。应当指出的是,谈判是一门相互妥协 的艺术。从这个意义上讲,既然美国希望将其国内经济问题拿到中美战略与经济对话平台上求解,为何中国不能将中国自己的国内经济问题也拿到中美战略与经济对 话平台上求解。来而不往,非礼也。
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