Does bin Laden's Death Mean the End of al-Qaida? How Does the U.S. Transfer the Layout of Anti-Terrorism?

Published in Nanfang Daily
(China) on 12 May 2011
by An Ti (link to originallink to original)
Translated from by Liangzi He. Edited by Gillian Palmer  .
The death of bin Laden makes al-Qaida members lose faith in their goal and motivating force; the end is just around the corner. Bin Laden’s death also means that the United States will more comprehensively alter the layout of anti-terrorism, and more American armed forces will withdraw from Iraq and Afghanistan. The United States will depend more on information-gathering to defend its global power.

On May 1, 2011, the world was watching President Obama live on television; they were listening to the words he spoke to the families of 9/11 victims: “bin Laden is dead,” and “Tonight, justice has been done.” That day was exactly the eighth anniversary of former President Bush’s controversial “Mission Accomplished” speech on the Lincoln warship. In some sense the “bin Laden is dead” speech is the real “Mission Accomplished”; and it marked the first time that Obama was seen as a real political leader by every faction of Americans. Like 9/11 opened a brand new era of anti-terrorism, after May 1, 2011 the world’s history will enter a “post-bin Laden” era.

Bin Laden has become past tense, but is the al-Qaida behind him still in the present tense and seeking opportunities for revenge? Is the anti-terrorism situation becoming more intense or much better now? Whether Obama himself or Secretary of State Hillary Clinton expressed that bin Laden’s death was a huge success in the war on terror, it doesn’t mean the end of the war, and America will continue to spare no effort in clearing the remnants of al-Qaida.

Al-Qaida Is Dead

Currently the most obvious optimist of the post-bin Laden era is the well-known international political columnist Fareed Zakaria, whose book was placed on Obama’s bedside. His opinion to a large extent reflects the mainstream view of liberals in the government.

Zakaria thinks that the death of bin Laden is “the death of al-Qaida,” so it’s not unreasonable to say that it’s the end of al-Qaida. Al-Qaida under bin Laden didn’t have allocatable global sources itself or a huge army. Al-Qaida is a concept and an ideology, and it was led by an extremely charismatic political leader, bin Laden. and accomplished an almost impossible mission (9/11). 9/11 was condemned globally; it caused two wars in 10 years that spent several hundred billion dollars and killed 100,000 people; the attack itself is seen as an absolute evil. In those 10 years, al-Qaida lingered but launched attacks every once in a while; and bin Laden’s legendary status continued to hold a lot of appeal.

In al-Qaida followers’ eyes, bin Laden was a prince-like figure. He gave up millions of wealth in Saudi Arabia, travelling afar to the mountain caves in Afghanistan. First he fought against Soviet invaders, then protested corrupt governments in the Arabic world and supported a Palestinian state, and finally commanded global anti-United States activity. What kind of spirit is that? Additionally, this person lived safe and sound for 10 years, avoiding pursuit by the world’s most powerful country combined with Afghanistan and Pakistan’s governments; his elusiveness seemed like a fabulous effect. Objectively, bin Laden was the main motivator of al-Qaida’s recruitment.

Bin Laden, as a symbol and appealing figurehead, connected global organizations, cleared up conflicts among factions and comforted members’ depression that resulted from failure. His death made all of these abilities nonexistent. A faith-based group that lost its faith, an organization that has no motivation sees its demise just around the corner. Many pessimists point out that second-in-command Zawahiri and others are still there, and they will continue launching terrorist attacks — but the problem is that Zawahiri cannot motivate and move those suicidal believers; he’s just a manager of the terrorist group. The most logically possible result of bin Laden’s death is that “the monkeys scatter after the tree falls,” and no new member can be recruited.

Zakaria, who has long supported global democracy, suggested another, equally important reason for the disintegration of al-Qaida was this year’s Middle East revolutions. When bin Laden left his motherland Saudi Arabia, starting his anti-USSR, anti-U.S. career globally, his most fundamental logic was that Arab governments were extremely corrupt under the support of Western countries, ignored public demand, and could no longer represent their people’s interests. The resolution he sold to Arabs was to combat the West using terrorism, weaken western support for Arab political regimes and create an opportunity to overthrow the regimes, and recover the extremist fundamentalist rule. The rule of the Taliban in Afghanistan is the model project for bin Laden.

The series of revolutions in Tunisia and Egypt at the beginning of this year suddenly made the people, who have lived in the 10-year-shadow of the war on terror, find another, easier way to reach the same destination: by overthrowing the corrupt governments and letting people become the political center again. This way is not extreme and has no bloody and violent fight against the West. The most important thing is that this voice comes from Islamic world and Arabic countries. In this historical transformation, Al-Jazeera broadcasts, Facebook and Twitter became the strongest voice, and al-Qaida was not included — neither was the terrorists’ logic. In this year’s Middle East revolutions, those terrorists and their logic have all been discarded by the public.

Therefore, losing faith in ideology and encountering the death of the spiritual leader — who was not in Afghanistan’s mountain caves, but in a secret million-dollar mansion in a Pakistani city — al-Qaida will be in a recession that cannot be recovered from, losing its effective organizing power to attack the world.

Transformation of Anti-Terrorism

Bin Laden’s death proved to a large extent that Obama’s leading strategy in the war on terror was right. Obama is an anti-war president and the death of bin Laden testified to his determination on anti-terrorism. However, the largest difference between him and former President Bush is that the latter, encouraged by his assistants, suddenly decided that Iraq was the biggest target of the war on terror after only one and a half years, launching a new war that caused the collapse of the U.S. and deteriorated its power for pursuing the real culprit behind 9/11 and al-Qaida.

When Obama took office, he had two wars on his hands. He didn’t abandon either, but revised Bush’s strategy by giving up some big empty plans. These included “rebuilding the country” in Afghanistan and Iraq, and changing to unmanned aerial vehicle attacks and quick-turnover plans like cooperating with Pakistan on anti-terrorism information gathering. Obama is truly a pragmatist. He doesn’t have some super-ambitious new conservative think tank. He has focused on how to centralize resources and accomplish goals during the economic recession and the collapse of national strength caused by wars. To use a management phrase, he thought about how to “get things done.”

Therefore, the first and foremost goal of the war on terror was defined by Obama as “capturing or shooting bin Laden.” This strategic transfer finally paid off; the war on terror comes to an end. The United States will keep combating terrorism, but “the war on terror” will probably disappear from the media spotlight.

What we should see is that bin Laden’s death means that America will arrange the layout of anti-terrorism more comprehensively; more U.S. armed forces will be withdrawn from Iraq and Afghanistan and the United States will depend more on information-gathering to defend its global power. Obama has announced the appointment of former CIA Director Leon Panetta as the Secretary of Defense and the appointment of the Commander of U.S. forces in Iraq and Afghanistan, Gen. David Petraeus, as CIA director. The collaboration between the U.S. military and CIA is evident in these titles.

The retracement of U.S. armed forces and intelligence expansion around the world will change the world’s military political power all around. For example, if the previous United States was the world police and liked street patrols and combating hostile forces, the future United States will be the world police that rely on information and monitoring and depend on precise strikes by special forces at critical times.

The military and strategic transformation of America the superpower will spur other countries in the world to transform. In this sense, bin Laden took away an era of anti-terrorism and let the whole world have a new start.


拉丹之死就是基地之死?美国反恐布局如何转移?

2011-05-12 14:26 南都周刊

拉丹之死,使得基地组织失去了信仰目标与激励力量,其消亡指日可待。拉丹之死也意味着美国将更加全面地进行反恐布局转移,更多的美国军力会从伊拉克、阿富汗撤退,而美国将更加借助情报来保卫美国的全球势力。

文_安替 (国际政治观察员)

美国时间2011年5月1日,全世界都在等待夜里11点半多奥巴马总统的电视直播,听他对那些9·11事件死难者家属说,“拉丹死了”,“今夜,正义业已伸张(Justice has been done)”。这一天,恰好是布什总统在林肯号军舰上发表令人争议的“任务完成(Mission Accomplished)”演讲八周年纪念日。从某种意义上说,“拉丹死了”演讲才是真正意义上的“任务完成”,奥巴马也第一次被各派美国人视作一个真正的政治领袖。也正如9·11开启了一个崭新的反恐年代一样,2011年5月1日以后,世界历史将进入“后拉丹”时代。

拉丹成了过去时态,那么他身后的“基地组织”还是进行时态、准备伺机报复吗?反恐局势是更加紧张了,还是局面一片大好?无论是奥巴马本人还是国务卿希拉里都表示,拉丹之死是反恐战争的巨大胜利,但不代表美国反恐战争的结束,美国还会全力清除基地组织残余势力。

基地已死

目前最旗帜鲜明地乐观看待后拉丹时代的,是著名的国际政治专栏作家扎卡里亚,他的书曾被放在奥巴马的床边,他的看法很大程度上反映了政府中自由派的主流观点。

扎卡里亚认为拉丹之死就是“基地组织之死”,因此说这是基地的终结并不过分。拉丹领导下的基地组织本身并没有可以支配的全球资源,也没有一支庞大的军队,它是一种理念,一种意识形态,由极具个人魅力的政治领袖拉丹领导,而且完成了一个几乎不可能完成的行动(9·11事件)。当9·11袭击被全球谴责、10年内也因此引发了两场战争、耗费数千亿美元、牺牲数十万人后,9·11行动本身已经是绝对的恶。这10年,基地组织还苟延残喘甚至不时发动袭击,拉丹的不死传说起到了很大的号召力。

在基地跟随者的眼中,拉丹,一个王子般的人物,放弃在沙特的百万财富,不远万里来到阿富汗的山区窑洞里面,先是和前苏联的入侵者作战,然后是抗议阿拉伯世界的各国腐败政府,并且支持巴勒斯坦人的事业,最后是指挥全球反美活动,这是什么样的精神?而且这样的人在世界上最强大的国家联合阿富汗政府、巴基斯坦政府的追缴下,10年都安然无事,这似乎有神助般的效果。客观地说,拉丹是激励一些极端主义者被基地招募的主要信仰力量。

拉丹作为一个符号性的激励和号召,连接了全球的组织、消解了各派看法的分歧、安慰了成员挫败的失落。他的死亡,让这些都不复存在。一个失去了信仰目标的类信仰团体、一个没有了激励力量的非营利团体,其消亡是可以期待的。很多悲观的评论者指出二把手扎瓦西里等人还在,会继续恐怖攻击,问题是扎瓦西里并不能激励和感动那些敢死的信徒,他只是一个恐怖团体的管理者。拉丹死后,比较符合逻辑的事情就是树倒猢孙散,连新人都招募不到。

长期支持全球民主的扎卡里亚认为,另外一个同样重要的原因也将造成基地组织的瓦解—今年的中东革命。拉丹当年离开他的祖国沙特,开始在全球从事他的反苏反美事业,其最基本的逻辑是,阿拉伯政府在美国等西方列强的支持下,极度腐败,无视民众诉求,已经无法代表阿拉伯人民的利益。他推销给阿拉伯人民的道路就是以恐怖主义打击西方,以减弱西方对阿拉伯旧政权的支持而制造推翻机会,然后再恢复极端主义的原教旨主义统治。塔利班在阿富汗的统治成为拉丹的样板工程。

今年初发生在突尼斯和埃及等阿拉伯国家的系列革命,突然让10年来折磨在反恐战争阴影下的民众发现了另外一条更容易走通的路,同样达到推翻腐败政府、让人民重新成为政治中心的目的,却没有那么极端、没有那么和西方作对、没有那么血腥和暴力。最重要的是,这是发自伊斯兰世界和阿拉伯国家自己的声音。在这场历史性的变革中,半岛电视台、Facebook、推特成为最强音,而基地组织完全不在视野中—那套恐怖主义的逻辑,在今年中东革命中,被民众彻底抛弃了。

因此在意识形态已经失信的情况下,再遭遇精神领袖的死亡,而且不是死于阿富汗的窑洞中,而是死于巴基斯坦城市的百万美元深宅中,基地组织将就此一蹶不振,失去了有效攻击世界的组织力量。

反恐转型

拉丹之死,在很大程度上证明了奥巴马领导反恐战争的战略是正确的。奥巴马不是一个反战总统,这次击毙拉丹也证明他反恐的坚定。但他和布什总统最大的区别是,布什在助手们的鼓动下,在反恐战争开始一年半之后,突然判定伊拉克才是反恐战争最大的目标,兴师动众开启了一场拖垮了美国的新战争,同时也减弱了追捕9·11真正元凶和基地组织的力量。

当奥巴马接手政权的时候,手头上已经有两场战争。他并没有实行逃跑主义,而是调整布什战略,在阿富汗和伊拉克放弃“国家重建”等大而无当的计划,改成无人机攻击、和巴基斯坦反恐情报合作等美国投入少但回报重大的计划。奥巴马的确是个现实主义者,他也没有极富野心的新保守智囊,他想的就是,在美国经济全面衰退、国力已经被战争拖垮的当下,如何集中资源,专心完成目标,用管理学的话说,就是Get Things Done(把事做完)。

因此,反恐战争的首要目标被奥巴马定义成“抓捕击毙拉丹”。这一战略转移今天终于得到收获,反恐战争告一段落。美国会一直打击恐怖主义势力,但反恐战争作为一个名词,大概会从媒体的热点中消失了。

必须看到的是,拉丹之死也意味着美国将更加全面地进行反恐布局转移,更多的美国军力会从伊拉克、阿富汗撤退,而美国将更加借助情报来保卫全球的美国势力。当奥巴马宣布前中央情报局局长调任国防部长,而前伊拉克、阿富汗战场总指挥彼得雷乌斯将军调任中央情报局局长的时候,美国军队和情报部门的高度合作已经是题中之义了。

美国军力的回撤、情报力量的全球扩张,将全面改变世界的军事政治力量。打个比方,如果说以前的美国是喜欢出街巡逻、四处打击敌对力量的世界警察,未来的美国将是依赖情报和监控,关键时候依赖特种部队精确打击的世界警察。

超级大国美国的军事战略变革,也会带动世界各国的相应变革。在这个意义上说,拉丹带走了整整一个反恐年代,也让全世界重新出发。
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