A Discussion about America’s Debt Upper Limit

Published in Guangming Daily
(China) on 22 July 2011
by Gao Rongwei (link to originallink to original)
Translated from by Liangzi He. Edited by Emily Sicard.
There seems to be no reason why foreigners focus on America’s properties with great passion. Early in 1880, investors from the United Kingdom, Germany and Netherland bought $2.5 billion in U.S. securities, mainly railway shares and bonds, until the year 1894, when a quarter of America’s railway announced bankruptcy, causing European investors to suffer heavy losses.

In the 1980s, when Japan’s economy was at the summit of its power, an institution under the Mitsubishi Group bought Rockefeller Center in Manhattan at a ridiculously high price. At last the Japanese institution bankrupted because of its failure in to pay off $1.5 billion in debt. In 1999, Japan’s Softbank Group made a significant entrance into America’s technology Internet stock market, spending $275 million acquiring the online grocery store Webvan, which turn out to be for naught.

In 2002, HSBC spent $14.2 billion in acquiring America’s Household International, entering America’s sub-prime market and becoming one of the largest sub-prime lenders in the U.S. The acquired Household International became HSBC Finance, but the business practices were still as controversial as before, and it became a target of the U.S. civil rights’ movement.

The famous economist Xie Guozhong said that the global economy was moving toward another crisis, and this time it focused on a government debt crisis. He stated that the world was not stable because decision makers did not want to deal with constructional problems.

Let us look at America’s debt problem again. After Moody’s Credit Rating Agency suggested that the U.S. cancel the debt limit, the American billionaire, the “Oracle of Omaha,” Warren Buffett offered the same suggestion in order to eliminate the disagreement between the White House and Congress. Facing the bickering deadlock between the U.S. executive branch and Congress regarding whether to raise the limit of debt, Buffett held that human-made national debt was the cause of the White House and Congress’ falling out, that haggling about the topic was a waste of time, and that the U.S. government had better free itself from the shackle of a debt limit.

Obama and leaders in Congress all know, and people around the world also know, that the U.S. national debt cannot break its contract on Aug. 2, otherwise credit rating organizations will degrade the level of the U.S. national debt, which has had the best credit up until now.

During Obama’s election year, he said in a speech that the financial crisis, which was one of two wars Americans were fighting, was the most difficult challenge in their lives. Those words are still ringing in our ears. Whether the U.S. economy is facing a heavy government debt crisis is unknown, and it is still too early to tell.

Because of this, Obama was perturbed by the Republicans, and the White House spokesman was bothered by reporters. Because of the debt limit issue, the White House was in chaos. Although Obama had been meeting with the same group of congressional leaders for five consecutive days and held two press conferences in one week, the situation did not change.

What effect would the degradation of the U.S. national debt bring to other countries in the world? Take China for example: When a bond loses its original value, major creditors of the U.S. like the Chinese mainland, Hong Kong and Taiwan would be affected negatively. Everybody knows that the Chinese mainland is America’s top creditor, Hong Kong is the seventh largest creditor, and Taiwan is the ninth largest.

Next will be Americans themselves. Since the U.S. will have to borrow money to pay debts, but its credit is no longer good, it will have to pay more interest to borrow money, and who will pay the interest? Of course it will be the Americans themselves. By the time interest for buying cars and houses increases crazily, Americans, suffering from the economic crisis, will be less daring in spending money. By that time, I am afraid that Obama himself would say that the U.S. economy would probably fall into another recession, and an even worse one. Such a situation would mean that creditors around the world would have to pay for America’s debts. Can you remember the spectacle from three years ago? The countries that relied on American exports especially suffered from America’s economic depression.

But knowing does not mean anything. America is at the edge of falling into breaking contracts, because now, at the time of the two parties’ impasse, Americans do not realize that they are facing a disaster.

It is said that most political leaders in the House proposed that they should pass a short-term plan in the face of the increasingly closer debt limit and the larger deficit cutting plan could be discussed later. However, in order to continue in office, Obama could not stand leaving the pending issue unresolved. He lost his temper in front of all the congressmen, pushing a chair aside angrily, leaving the others stunned. Of course, this is the Republicans’ version, and there is an even more exaggerated version among the people in which he smacked the table, kicked the door, but all was denied by the Democrats. According to them, Obama left before them after the meeting and even said, “See you tomorrow.”

What is scarier is that even Americans themselves do not know how terrible breaking contracts is. This so-called breaking contract means that the U.S. has borrowed money from creditors and does not pay it off after spending all of it. Many Americans are unclear that parts of America’s national defense cost and social welfare are supported by debt and now the money is used up. The Americans who do not realize the current situation still do not think that the U.S. should raise the debt limit.

What they do not understand is that raising the debt limit is to pay off what they have already spent and that more borrowed money will not go into their own pocket. However, the two parties do not seem to be in a rush to explain this to voters; that is why as much as 60 percent of Republican supporters hope that they do not raise the debt upper limit, while two percent of Democrats support this and 50 percent of independent voters agree.

What is puzzling is that about 40 percent of Americans even think that once they are unable to raise the debt limit, they should not pay back the money and interests to international creditors and only ten percent said that they should first stop paying social welfare, etc. In other words, the debtor thinks that he could put off paying back the money but he cannot leave himself hungry. Although this seems to be humane, the U.S. is a country not a human. A human who owes money can escape, but the U.S. has no place to hide.

America’s democratic system is praiseworthy, but keeping checks and balances does not mean dragging each other about and making no compromise, and it definitely does not mean doing so at the expense of America’s own precious credit, the American people’s future and welfare, making fun of money made by people from countries like China, Hong Kong, Taiwan, Japan and the U.K. or selling America’s problem like the subprime crisis to the rest of the world, making people around the world suffer along with the U.S.

Obama said in his first presidential speech that America’s leadership position ushered in a new dawn; whether this will turn out to be a supreme irony, we will have to wait and see.


高荣伟 http://www.gmw.cn 2011-07-22 15:51:49 来源:光明网-光明观察

外国人不知何故,对美国资产情有独钟。早在1880年,英国、德国及荷兰投资人买入25亿美元的美国证券,主要是铁路股份和债券。到了1894年,美国的四分之一铁路宣布破产,欧洲投资人损失惨重。

20世纪80年代,日本经济如日中天,三菱集团旗下机构以天价买入曼哈顿区的洛克菲勒中心(Rockefeller Center),最后这家日资机构因为无法支付15亿美元贷款而以破产收场。1999年,日本软件银行集团(Softbank)大举进军美国的科技网络股,耗资2亿7500万美元收购网上杂货店Webvan,结果是投资化为乌有。

2002年,汇丰银行以142亿美元收购美国的家居国际(Household International),进军美国次贷市场,成为美国最大的次贷放款人之一。而被收购的“家居国际”之后虽改名为“汇丰融资”,但做生意的手法和以前一样具争议性,现在已成为美国民权运动组织的攻击对象。

著名经济学家谢国忠说:“全球经济正朝着另一次危机迈进,这一次的核心是政府债务危机。世界是不稳定的,因为决策者不愿处理结构性问题。”

再看一看美国的债务问题。继信评机构穆迪建议美国取消债务上限后,美国亿万富翁、“股神”巴菲特(Warren Buffett)同样建议美国政府取消人为设定的债务法定上限,以消除白宫和国会之间的“四分五裂”。面对近期美国政府和国会为了调高举债上限而争吵不休的僵局,巴菲特日前表示,人为制定国债上限正是引发白宫和国会朝野分裂的祸根,为此争论不休简直是浪费国会时间,美国政府最好完全摆脱举债上限的束缚。

奥巴马和国会领袖都“知道”,世界人民也“知道”,不能让美国国债在8月2日违约,否则评级机构肯定会把信用最佳的美国国债给降级。

当年,奥巴马在胜选演说中说:“当前金融危机是我们一生中最艰难的挑战——两大战争之一。”言犹在耳。美国经济即将遭遇沉重的政府债务危机打击也未可知,现在言犹尚早。

为此,奥巴马对共和党发飙,而白宫发言人对记者发飙,为了举债上限议题,白宫陷入一片混乱,吵得不可开交,一塌糊涂,尽管奥巴马罕见的连续五天在白宫会见同一批国会领袖,一周内又再召开两次记者会。

美国国债信用降级会给世界其它国家的人民带来什么影响呢?就拿中国来说吧,到时候债券失去原有价值,先倒霉的是中、港、台等美国超级大债主。人们都知道,中国大陆为美国第一大债主、香港为第七大债主、台湾为其第九大债主。

接下来倒霉的就是美国人自己,因为美国势必还要再借债还债,但美国信用不好,只好付更多利息去借钱,这些利息谁给埋单?当然是美国人自己。届时美国人买车、买房的利息飙涨后,刚刚遭遇经济危机的美国人会变的更不敢花钱,到时候,奥巴马自己恐怕都会说,美国经济恐会再度衰退,甚至更糟。这意味着,全世界各债主又要再为美国埋单,还记得两三年前的惨状吗?特别是依赖对美国出口的国家。

但“知道”归“知道”,美国眼看还是要陷入违约边缘,因为就在两党互不让步之时,而美国人自己都搞不清即将大难临头。

据说,众院多数党领袖看看离债限越来越近,就提议先通过一个短期的方案,其它大的减赤方案,以后慢慢谈,但奥巴马为了连任,哪愿意一直有刀架在他脖子上,在当众发飙后,推开椅子、愤怒离席,留下错愕的众人,当然,这是共和党版本,民间还有流传更夸张的版本:拍桌、踹门,但民主党一概否认,只说谈完了,奥巴马先行离席了,还跟大家留下一句:明天见。

更可怕的是,美国人自己也不知道违约有多可怕。所谓违约,说白了就是美国跟债主借了钱,花光后竟然就说我不还了。美国很多人都不清楚,美国就是借债支撑起美国部分国防开销与社会福利的,现在这些钱花完了,不清楚现状的美国人竟然认为,美国不应该再提高举债上限了。

他们不清楚,所谓提高债限,目的是去还美国人已经花掉的那些钱,更多借的钱并不能流入自己的腰包,但民主共和两党似乎并不急于跟选民解释,所以,竟然有多达60%的共和党支持者希望完全不要提高举债上限,民主党有两成,独立选民则有近五成。

令人费解的是,将近四成的美国人竟然会认为,一旦无法提高债限,首先应该不要还钱、还利息给国际债主,只有一成说应该先停止支付社会福利等。换句话说,欠钱的认为不还债主钱是可以的,但自己饿肚子可不行。这一点虽然符合人性,但美国毕竟是一国家,不能像一个人,欠了债可以逃,美国是无处可逃的。

美国民主体制有令人称道的地方,但是制衡不该变成互扯后腿,互不让步,还因此拿美国自己的最宝贵的信用,拿美国人民的未来与福祉,拿中国、香港、台湾人民,以及日本、英国等国人民的血汗钱来开玩笑,再一次把“美国问题”像次贷危机一样外销全球,让全世界人民跟美国一起受罪。

奥巴马在胜选演讲中说的“美国的领导地位迎来了新的曙光”,是否会演变成一个绝妙的讽刺,我们拭目以待。
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