A Military Coup in Syria

There’s no doubt that in the few days and moments that preceded the fall of the Mubarak regime, the United States employed methods of incitement to speed things along; in an attempt to put its nose into that dangerous arena, the United States reminded the Egyptian army about the support it receives directly from America. The U.S. also conducted huge numbers of calls and meetings, trying to understand the general opinion toward the Egyptian military council and where things would lead after Mubarak’s departure. Only then did President Obama announce that Mubarak should transfer power and leave. American intelligence had predicted that a soft military coup, considered the least anarchic option at the time, was possible, allowing the Egyptian military to assume power. An analysis that an American intelligence website published confirmed these predictions.

Events are heating up in Syria; it’s as though hundreds of intelligence agents around the world have awoken and are investigating any development they can establish as crucial and unforeseen so they can present their predictions and reports to policy-makers. No doubt these events are also stirring up American intelligence, who risked serious censure on the day the Zine Abidine Ben Ali regime suddenly fell, due to their failure to envision the rapid escalation of the Tunisian revolution to the point of total regime change.

With regard to Syria, there are few who would argue that American intelligence or the American administration is inclined to apply the Egyptian model. Some might believe that it has already made a few attempts, but it faces obstacles like a lack of American financial support to the Syrian army and military connections to high-ranking Syrian officers. Analysts say that the diminished Syrian leadership is airtight, and none who travel in those circles graduated from the schools of American military authority. Thus, it’s not easy for American intelligence to give preference to the foolish proposal to directly entice a few “important” officers, in a slightly larger circle — those who “restrained themselves” in silence as the Syrian regime fell toward the abyss.

Also, they might not be able to buy hearts like they did in Iraq in 2003, although American intelligence, according to specialists, would prefer a calm military coup in Syria over any other option. A coup would guarantee the transfer of power to a military council acceptable to the people, and then a transitional government would gradually establish a democracy without Western military intervention. The reason for caution may be that some reports reject a repetition of what happened in Libya, cautioning policy-makers against the crowd and confusion of NATO, and against making new enemies when they're desperately in need of being viewed as friends at the moment.

However, President Obama recently and suddenly appeared to demand that the Syrian president leave! So what really happened? Have preparations been made for a military coup in Syria, and all they're waiting for now is zero hour? Or is the issue merely a political “tactic” to raise America’s voice above Turkey, Saudi Arabia and Europe, and above the voice of the revolution, to prove solely that it exists? And is it expected that American intelligence will move itself to rebuke and repair again?

Several months ago, when the Syrian revolution broke out, we said that the last chance for the Syrian regime lay in immediately arresting the symbols of murder and corruption and turn a new democratic page with the people. We said that the rebels had an urgent need for “consensus,” a capital and an army. As the Syrian president didn’t listen to much of the advice he received in the beginning, he started taking pleasure in shedding innocent blood and committing sins that will not be forgiven. The rebels and opposition inside and outside the country are demanding a unification of their efforts and leadership, so as to acquire a capital, win over military officers and make a plan for the post-Assad stage — and do so before the United States puts its hand in the revolution and claims the credit for itself, like some fools are saying about other Arab revolutions.