China Doesn't Have Nuclear Weapons? An American Candidate's Ignorant Warning

Published in Sina
(China) on 6 November 2011
by (link to originallink to original)
Translated from by Howard Segal. Edited by Drue Fergison  .
Surprisingly, American Republican presidential candidate Herman Cain did not know that China was a country in possession of nuclear weapons, and American public opinion ridiculed his ignorance. Cain argued that China’s nuclear capability could not be compared with America’s; this is probably his reason for overlooking and disregarding China’s nuclear capability.

This greatly shocked American public opinion, but the Chinese should be the ones who are truly startled. Cain is pretty clueless, and ignorant yet again. He was once the CEO of a large American company, a television anchor and a columnist. He belongs to an elite group of Americans. He is not a satirical street corner bum going into the election. The structure of his knowledge and the extent of his ignorance toward China are definitely not unique among the American elite. There is no question that his attitude is, to a certain extent, representative.

This is an era when American political circles are intensively discussing China: Various adjustments to China policy are in the pipeline, the scope of American politicians participating in the discussions is increasing and their positions are becoming increasingly pointed. However, Cain’s ignorance is telling us just how weak and distorted the general cognitive underpinnings of this great debate on China are. Some claim that the “punish China” people very possibly have no idea at all what they themselves are saying: What their mouths are saying is China and what their hearts are aiming at is China, but that China and the real China are simply not the same country.

What Chinese people should be shocked about is that we, ourselves, believe that it is enough to use Chinese nuclear strength as an effective strategic deterrent, but perhaps it does not really achieve this. Yes, the American military may not suspect that China possesses nuclear retaliatory capability, and this is probably also the case for American China-policy decision makers. As a basis for drafting their China strategy, they will not question China’s capability.

However, American societal attitudes and foreign politicians’ opinions toward China will, to a great extent, influence the central themes of American officials’ China policies. When Cain did not know that China possesses nuclear weapons, it implied that Chinese nuclear power has left behind too shallow of an impression on American society. China is a nuclear weapons country; this reality, in many instances, does not enter into the portrayal of American society’s feelings and attitudes toward China.

This is dangerous: When China-United States friction gradually increases, the variables in U.S. China policy will also increase and American society’s understanding of the quality and nature of China’s national strength will be obscured, which could possibly result in a directional misunderstanding that harms bilateral relations.

This again reminds us that China must take some action toward modernizing and strengthening its strategic nuclear forces. These actions should be carried out within the scope of relevant international conventions and the commitments that China has made, but China should not be too concerned about the idle chatter of international public opinion. Given that China’s future international status will become more and more sensitive, the fundamental role of nuclear forces in Chinese national security cannot be compared with any other strategic weapon.

Believing that so long as you possess nuclear weapons it is all right, that their quantity and quality does not matter and that just possessing them is enough to support China’s strategic deterrent — this kind of viewpoint is shallow. In 2006, two American scholars wrote an article in Foreign Affairs magazine saying that America could, in one instant, destroy the strategic arsenal of Russia or China. Even though this viewpoint is widely called into question, it clearly increased American society’s contempt for China’s nuclear force.

The deterrent strength of China’s nuclear force should be enough to eliminate Cain’s “blind spot of understanding,” and should be enough to check some Americans from using military methods to influence the intentions of Chinese-United States’ competition. China strengthening its strategic forces is not for the sake of changing from a defensive to an offensive posture in mutual deterrence against the United States; China has never had the need to do as much. But we need to act. China’s defensive stance has the strength of cool-headed power, and will bring about a corresponding change in the offensive connotation, thereby increasing peaceful rationality while also increasing forcefulness.


中国无核武?美参选人无知的警示

美国共和党总统参选人赫尔曼·凯恩竟然不知道中国是拥有核武器的国家,美舆论嘲笑他“无知”。凯恩辩解说,中国的核能力与美国“没法比”,这大概是他对中国核力量“忽略不计”的原因。

  这件事让美国舆论“很吃惊”,但真正应当吃惊的是中国人。凯恩是挺无知的,但他再无知,他也当过美国大公司的CEO、电台主持、专栏作家等,是美国精英群体中的一员。他不是去选举中恶搞的街头混混,他的知识结构,他对中国的“无知程度”,决不是美国精英层中唯一的,他有一定的代表性是不容怀疑的。

  这是一个美国政坛密集谈论中国的时代,各种对华政策的调整在酝酿中,参与讨论的美国政治家范围越来越大,主张也越来越尖锐。然而凯恩的无知在告诉我们,这场大辩论的对华认知基础是多么薄弱、扭曲,一些主张“惩罚中国”的人,很可能根本就不知道自己在说什么,或者他们嘴上说的是中国,心里瞄的是中国,但那个中国和真实的中国,根本就不是“同一个国家”。

  中国人还应当吃惊的是,我们自认为能够起“有效战略威慑”作用的中国核力量,或许并没有真正做到这一点。不错,美国军方可能对中国拥有核报复能力不太怀疑,美国对华政策的决策者们大概也如此。他们未必会把对中国这个能力的质疑,作为其制定对华战略的一个依据。

  然而美国社会对中国的态度,外围政治家们对中国的看法,会在很大程度上影响美国官方对华政策的基调。当像凯恩这样的人不知道中国有核武器时,意味着中国核力量给美国社会留下的印象过于肤浅。“中国是有核武器的国家”,这个事实在很多时候没有参与美国社会对华态度和情绪的塑造。

  这是危险的,在中美摩擦逐渐增多,美国对华政策的变数也在增多的时候,美国社会对中国国家力量性质和质量的认识模糊,有可能造成危害两国关系的方向性误导。

  这再次提醒我们,中国有必要在战略核力量的加强和现代化方面有所行动。这些行动应在有关国际公约和中国所做的承诺范围内开展,但中国不应对国际舆论的闲言碎语太在意。鉴于中国未来的国际地位越来越敏感,核力量对中国国家安全的基石作用,是任何其他战略武器都无法相比的。

  认为核武器只要“有”就行,“有”就足以支撑中国的战略威慑力,与数量和质量关系不大,这种观点是浅薄的。美国两名学者2006年在《外交》杂志上撰文称,美国可以一次性摧毁俄罗斯或中国的战略核武库,尽管该观点广受质疑,但它显然增加而不是削弱了美国社会对中国核力量的轻视。

  中国核力量的威慑强度,应当足以消除凯恩这样的“认识盲点”,并足以制止美国一些人用军事手段影响中美国家竞争的念头。中国加强战略力量不是为了在对美的相互威慑中从守势变为攻势,中国永远都没有必要这样做。但我们必须做到,中国的守势有不怒自威的力量,它会造成攻势内涵的相对变化,从而既增加和平的理性,也增加它的强制性。
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