How Should China "Treat the Guest"?

Published in People
(China) on 17 November 2011
by Wang Xiu and Xu Qian (link to originallink to original)
Translated from by Yipeng Xie. Edited by Janie Boschma.
The American “Asian Dance” tends to change from a waltz to a tap dance. At the APEC meeting, Obama wholeheartedly promoted the Trans-Pacific Partnership, then visited Australia, where he announced he will deploy more troops, and attended the East Asia Summit. This is the first time the U.S. attended the summit.

The U.S.'s “coming back to Asia” specifically aims to rebuild U.S. leadership in Asia. Hillary once said that the U.S. had been distracted by the Middle East region for ten years and will put the focus on Asia. However, this time, the U.S. does not seem satisfied with just causing a ripple, trying, rather, to trigger a huge wave. Looking at the regions around China, we can see that the U.S. is warming up by becoming a militarily ally with Japan and Korea, stimulating the conflicts on ownership of land and ocean between China and other countries, letting these countries go first to disturb and consume China, selling more than $10 billion in weapons to India, establishing more than 10 military bases in Central Asia in the name of anti-terrorism, cooperating more with Mongolia and enhancing its military presence in Australia.

The vice secretary general of China Association of Policy and Science and famous military analyst, Major General Peng Guangqian, during an interview with us, said that the most important thing China should do is to calm down and not to overly care about U.S. actions. He claimed that when you dwell too much on one issue (maybe it is not important at all), it will become an issue even if it wasn't. He says, “God only exists when you believe in his existence and admire him. This is a psychological war.”

A researcher in China Foundation for International Studies, Wang Taiping, thinks that the U.S. will become more and more involved in Asian affairs. The friction between China and the U.S or China and other Asian countries will increase. The Chinese should be aware of this. He said, “We shouldn’t fuss when others begin to interrupt; we shouldn’t think it is the end of the world when others are brandishing the bar. The world is so big and the conflicts are so many. We can’t describe the current situation in Asia as significantly severe and shouldn’t believe that all of these threats are only pointing to us; it is also unnecessary to regard U.S. as God. The U.S. seems to try to circumscribe U.S. via allying with other Asian countries. The U.S. looks intimidating and aggressive, but the actual effects are still unknown and we will see.”

In light of the U.S. returning to Asia to intimidate, China should calm down. The deputy dean of the School of International Studies at Renmin University of China, Jin Canrong, during an interview with us, advised, “To face the U.S.’s 'invasion,' China should be as stable as a mountain. The U.S.’s current strategies reflect its deficiencies. The U.S. is going downward, while China is going upward. To use economic terminology, U.S. has big stocks, but China has excellent increment. In this situation, U.S. is on the defensive. Therefore, the key is that China should be confident. We should believe that time is on our side. If we don’t make mistakes, the future is ours.”

RAND Corporation recently promulgated an analysis report stating that the possibility of face-to-face conflict between China and U.S. is very low. The purpose of U.S.’s alliance with countries around China is probably just to bluff. Nevertheless, the U.S. might not be the “friend in need” because the U.S. is a practical country. Its allies' safety is an important interest, but not the core interest.

We should be confident about the future and peace development in Asia. Wang Taiping says that Chinese should abandon the concerns about “weakness” and should try to learn to use Big Country logic to tackle diplomatic relationships. Then we can dominate and won’t sway; then we can control actively, eliminate conflicts, avoid traps and won’t misunderstand the situation. Then we will not need to face the complicated strategic conflicts in a hurry or do impulsive things.

A researcher in Xinhua Center for World Affairs Studies, Qian Wenrong advises leaving the U.S. alone if it decides to join the game in Asia. However, in this game, only the one whose development is more energetic and can offer more opportunities to surrounding countries, will have more qualification to speak in this area and exert influence. Hence, “no matter how the U.S. interferes, we should follow the settled guidelines, continue to enhance the relationships with Association of Southeast Asian Nations, develop the China-ASEAN Free Trade areas, continue to develop friendships with India and Australia, and not alienate these countries because of U.S.’s strategies. On the other hand, during the reforming, China should continue to develop and advance itself. This is the key point,” said Qian Wenrong. The U.S., in the future, will keep making big waves. But if we do what we should do, we can sit down and watch U.S.’s “Asia Dance” with calmness.


新华网北京11月17日电  (王秀、徐倩)美国的“亚洲舞”大有从华尔兹变成踢踏舞的势头。在刚刚结束的APEC会议上,奥巴马力推《跨太平洋战略经济伙伴协定》(TPP),旋即访问澳大利亚,并宣布在澳驻军,随后,又奔赴东亚峰会,这是美国第一次参加东亚峰会。

  美国“重返亚洲”,说得更准确一些,是美国重新巩固在亚洲的主导地位。正如希拉里所说,美国不过是在“因中东地区而‘分心’十年之后,将‘重心’又转向亚洲”。只是这次,它似乎并不只满足于在此荡起轻微的涟漪,而意在掀动起伏的波澜。从对我国周边的扫描就可以看出,美国正在那里摆子布势:与日韩强化军事同盟关系,挑起中国与周边国家的领土、海洋权纷争,让这些周边国家打头阵,困扰和消耗中国;在南亚卖给印度上百亿美元的军火;在中亚借反恐为名部署十几个军事基地;与蒙古加强军事合作;强化在澳大利亚驻军。

  中国政策科学研究会副秘书长、著名军事专家彭光谦少将在接受本网采访时表示,中国现在最重要的是放平心态,不要太在意美国的举动。你越把它当回事,它就是回事。所谓“敬神神在,不敬神,神就不在。这就是一种心理战。”

  中国国际问题研究基金会研究员王泰平认为,今后美国对该地区事务介入的力度会越来越大,中美之间及中国和亚洲国家之间的摩擦势必会增多,国人应有此自觉。“不要人家一指手画脚,我们就手忙脚乱;人家一挥舞大棒,我们就觉得大难临头。世界大得很,矛盾多得很,不能把当前的亚洲形势看成多么严峻,不要认为所有的矛头都是对着自己来的;也不必把美国看得神乎其神,它拉近与亚洲国家的关系,企图拼凑围堵中国的包围圈,看起来气势汹汹,但实际效果如何,还有待观察”。

  面对美国的强势返亚,中国要保持冷静。中国人民大学国际关系学院副院长金灿荣在接受新华网采访时认为:“面对美国的‘进攻’,中国要稳如泰山。美国现在战术上的进攻,正反映了它在战略上的弱势。美国整个国家现在走下坡,而中国正往上走。借用经济学术语说,美国的存量很大,但中国的增量很好。在这种情况下,美国心态上处在防御位置。所以,关键的是中国要坚定信心。坚信时间在中国这边,只要不犯错,未来是我们的。”

  美国智库兰德公司近期出炉的一份评估报告称,中美发生正面冲突的可能性很小,美国在中国周边拉帮结派,煽风点火是可能的,但未必会为他的盟友两肋插刀,因为美国是一个实用主义的国家,盟友的安全是它的重要利益,但绝非核心利益。

  我们对亚洲未来的和平发展不妨多一些信心。王泰平说,国人应摈弃“弱者心理”,学会运用大国思维。在处理对外关系时,就能做到高屋建瓴,而不受一时一事的事态所左右;就能掌握主动,游刃有余,不受挑拨,不上圈套;不会误判形势,去匆忙应对一场背景复杂的战略冲突,做出“英雄气短”的事来。

  新华社世界问题研究中心研究员钱文荣认为,美国如果一定要参与亚太地区的博弈就由它去,但博弈的结果很可能是哪个大国的发展更有活力、谁能为周边国家的发展提供更多机会,谁才会在这个地区更有话语权和影响力。因此,“不论美国怎样折腾,我们还应按照既定的方针,继续加强与东盟的关系,搞好中国-东盟自由贸易区,继续发展同印度、澳大利亚等国的友好关系,不能因为美国的战略而疏远这些国家;另一方面,还要在改革中继续发展壮大自己的国力,这才是关键之所在”,钱文荣说。美国日后一定还会搅起一些波澜,但想清楚了这一点,我们就能够保持波澜不惊的心态来观赏美国的“亚洲舞”。
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