Does Iran Benefit from US Military Withdrawal?

Published in Xinhua
(China) on 20 December, 2011
by Xinjing Newspaper (link to originallink to original)
Translated from by Yipeng Xie. Edited by Derek Ha.
On Dec. 18, the U.S. military completely withdrew from Iraq. Analysts claim that the withdrawal of the U.S. Army benefits Iran.

America’s wars in Afghanistan and Iraq exerted significant pressure on Iran’s eastern and western borders. To the east of Iran, there was the U.S. Army in Afghanistan. To its west was the U.S. Army in Iraq. To its south, there is Saudi Arabia, the loyal U.S. ally. Within the Persian Gulf is the U.S. base in Kuwait. It is not an exaggeration to say that Iran was surrounded by a threatening enemy.

The U.S. military withdrawal not only eases the pressure on Iran but relieves political stress in Iran. The Shiite-led Iraq government is friendly to Iran. Iraqi leaders won’t forget that Iran gave refuge to Shiite Iraqis during the rule of the Sunni Saddam Hussein.

In terms of the whole Persian Gulf area, according to the U.S. media, in the post-U.S. military era, the situation will possibly change. Iraq’s population and known oil reserves rank among the top two in the area. Therefore, Iraq may change the original ground rules by becoming a transformational player, turning itself into an influential country.

In addition, Americans are worried about Iraqi prime minister al-Maliki’s position toward Iran. Previously, al-Maliki had been indifferent toward Iran, but last year, the political crisis lasting several months after Iraq’s congressional elections enabled al-Maliki to realize that indifference to Iran will lead to loss of political support.

The benefits Iran gains from Iraq do not allow it to “relax completely” because both countries used to have conflicts and long wars.

The war triggered by the U.S. has lasted almost nine years in Iraq, but in the 1980s, the Iraq-Iran war also lasted about nine years. At that time, Saddam sent young Shiites to the frontline and let Iraq’s Shiites and Iran’s Shiites fight against each other. The Shiites in Iraq ultimately suffered a big loss.

The pain from the wars has not vanished yet. Up to today, many Iraqi Shiites are still not friendly with Iran; the Sunni Iraqis, needless to say, have a ferocious hatred toward Iran. Therefore, Iran’s achieving peaceful relations with its neighbors still has a long way to go.


18日,美军全部撤离伊拉克境内,分析人士称美军撤离使伊朗渔翁得利。

美国人在阿富汗和伊拉克发动的两场战争使伊朗东西两线压力巨大。对伊朗而言,东侧是驻阿美军,西侧是驻伊美军,南有美国的铁杆盟友沙特阿拉伯,波斯湾内是常设美军基地的科威特,可谓腹背受敌。

美撤离不仅使伊朗在军事层面甩掉包袱,而且在政治方面也可长舒口气。因为什叶派主导的伊拉克政府“亲伊朗”,他们无法忘却逊尼派萨达姆当政时期伊朗对伊拉克什叶派的“收容之恩”。

就整个海湾地区而言,美国媒体认为“后美军时代”地区形势或恐出现变化。伊拉克可能会为了凸显影响力而挺身而出,改变原有的“游戏规则”,成为逆转游戏走向的“变压器”。因为伊拉克无论从人口规模还是探明原油储备,在海湾地区都数一数二。

另外,伊拉克总理马利基对伊朗立场让美国人“很不放心”。先前,马利基对伊朗一贯表现出冷淡的态度,但去年伊拉克议会选举后出现历时数月的政治危机让马利基“清醒”意识到,再不对伊朗“热情”些就会失去议会支持。

伊朗在政治和军事上从伊拉克获得更大空间并不意味着“全身轻松”。 因为两伊在历史上曾经因长期战争结下梁子。

美国在伊拉克打了近9年的战争,而二十世纪80年代的两伊战争也干了大约9年。萨达姆当年将许多年轻的什叶派推向两伊战争的最前沿,让伊拉克什叶派与伊朗什叶派干仗,伊拉克什叶派最终蒙受了巨大损失。

战争伤疤下的余痛未消,至今许多什叶派伊拉克人仍然对伊朗没有好感,而逊尼派伊拉克人对伊朗的憎恶感更是不言而喻,因此在本地区伊朗的周边关系仍然任重道远。
This post appeared on the front page as a direct link to the original article with the above link .

Hot this week

Mexico: From Star Wars to Golden Domes

Australia: The US’s Biggest Export? Trump’s MAGA Mindset

Hong Kong: From Harvard to West Point — The Underlying Logic of Trump’s Regulation of University Education

Mexico: US Pushes for Submission

Topics

Germany: Horror Show in Oval Office at Meeting of Merz and Trump

Hong Kong: From Harvard to West Point — The Underlying Logic of Trump’s Regulation of University Education

Spain: Trump to Students — ‘Don’t Come’

Japan: Will the Pressure on Harvard University Affect Overseas Students?

Mexico: From Star Wars to Golden Domes

Germany: US Sanctions against the EU

Austria: Whether or Not the Tariffs Are Here to Stay, the Damage Has Already Been Done*

Germany: Trump’s Tariff Policy: ‘Dealmaker’ under Pressure

Related Articles

Hong Kong: The Lessons of World War II: The Real World Importance of Resisting Hegemony

Mexico: The Trump Problem

Taiwan: Making America Great Again and Taiwan’s Crucial Choice

Venezuela: Vietnam: An Outlet for China

Germany: US Companies in Tariff Crisis: Planning Impossible, Price Increases Necessary