China Can Give America and Iran a Way Out

Published in Nanfang Daily
(China) on 19 January 2012
by Sun Xing Jie (link to originallink to original)
Translated from by Jonathan Dixon. Edited by Laurie Henneman.
The US and Iran Are Locked in a Game of Chicken

In the Persian Gulf, 2012 was ushered in to the sounds of weaponry during Iran’s military exercises. Earlier in 2011, tensions spiraled as the U.S. and Iran took opposing stances. America’s stance told Iran: “If you don’t give up your nuclear arsenal, war will not be far off.” Iran’s response was to escalate the scale of their military exercises, telling the U.S.: “If you use force, there will be a life-and-death struggle.”

These two countries are locked in a dangerous game of brinkmanship (similar to the U.S.-Soviet Cold War game of chicken) which is a test of who will finally compromise or concede. Iran’s troops and U.S. aircraft carriers are the pawns in this game, but as the stakes increase, the Persian Gulf’s fragile peace is tested.

America is trying to push forward sanctions against Iran through the U.N., hoping to use economic sanctions to force Iran to give up its nuclear aspirations and suppress its idea of dominating the Persian Gulf. In 2012 America announced it would levy unilateral sanctions against Iran, and on the last day of 2011 Obama passed a bill for such sanctions. Compared with earlier attempts, this one could severely damage a critical part of Iran’s economy — oil exports. This time, the European Union has agreed in principle with this plan against Iran; only the time frame for such sanctions has not yet been finalized. If the two great economies of the U.S. and the E.U., plus U.S. allies in Asia, levy sanctions against Iran, this could have a severe impact on Iran’s economy.

For America and its allies, what kind of threat is Iran? Asymmetrical warfare is Iran’s trump card. The TV screens will show Iran’s boats being "harassed," while the U.S.’ large battleships are effectively blocked from the Strait of Hormuz by mines. In addition, Iran’s missiles can’t reach the U.S., but they can hit countries along the Persian Gulf. And if this doesn’t paralyze the international oil market, it can at least create turbulence.

American and Iran are two countries that are unwillingly but irrevocably committed. Obama’s administration wants to revise its foreign strategy; to launch a war against Iran during an election year would be self-defeating. And in the past decade, the U.S. has relied too heavily upon violent force and has ignored consulting others and effects upon its prestige, so that it is often seen as a big bully. For Iran, democracy and theocracy are two incompatible forms of government; Ahmadinejad and Khamenei are aware they are playing with fire, and the bottom line is to avoid "self-immolation." It’s not easy for the U.S. as a superpower or Iran as a country with an imperial history of thousands of years to discredit each other. Instead, both sides need a way to escape this game of chicken.

China in the Role of Mediator

While Iran is holding the Persian Gulf "hostage," the fifth “World Future Energy Summit” is to be held in Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates, to explore the development of renewable energy and creating a more equitable global energy order, which is critical to the global political economy. In the short and medium term, oil and natural gas, as representatives of traditional non-renewable energy sources are still crucial to the world’s infrastructure for industrialization. As a result, no industrialized nations can ignore Iran’s energy supply.

China’s strategic interests lie in maintaining the stability of the Persian Gulf region. China and the Persian Gulf have close economic and trade ties, especially in the form of energy cooperation. Chinese oil companies are not only in Iran, but also Saudi Arabia. Thus to maintain the stability of the Persian Gulf region is in China’s national interests. And between Iran and the U.S., China can maintain a mediator status.

China is the most suited to this role. For Russia, the oil embargo and resulting soaring oil prices will be beneficial to Russian interests because it is a country dependent on energy exports. For the E.U., including Britain, France, Germany and other major powers that have urged sanctions against Iran, there is little room to maneuver. Japan and South Korea as allies of the U.S. have already joined the camp of sanctions. When Iran and the United States refuse to cooperate, China needs to bring them a decent step closer to the negotiating table, even if it is to save face for both sides.

In international diplomacy, agenda setting and crisis management are the embodiment of how great power diplomacy can be a powerful springboard to enhance a nation’s image. As the U.S. postpones military exercises and Iran uses propaganda rhetoric, they need a more formal channel of communication, and China can help. In the early 20th century, Theodore Roosevelt's involvement in the Russo-Japanese war framed the distribution of world powers, so why can’t China do the same today?


在国际交往中,议程设定、危机管理也是大国外交能力的体现,是提升国家形象的有力跳板。从美国推迟美以军演、美伊频频隔空喊话来看,他们需要一个更加正式的沟通渠道,中国在这方面需要有所作为。

美伊玩的是“胆小鬼游戏”

  波斯湾的2012年是在伊朗军事演习的隆隆炮声中迎来的。自2011年年底以来,美国与伊朗的对立呈螺旋上升态势。美国的种种表现意在告诫伊朗:如果不放弃核武器,战争并不遥远;而伊朗大规模的军事演习则警告美国:不要动武,鱼死网破。

  双方玩着一种危险的“边缘游戏”,类似于美苏冷战期间的“胆小鬼”游戏,比试谁在最后一瞬间选择妥协退让。伊朗的军演、美国的航母都是这种游戏的表现,也是双方表达胆量的筹码,随着筹码的不断增加,波斯湾地区脆弱的和平结构在经受考验。

  美国试图打造一个制裁伊朗的国际同盟,通过经济制裁压服伊朗,使其放弃核武器的梦想,打压其主导波斯湾的设想。美国将在2012年对伊朗采取单方面的制裁,奥巴马在2011年最后一天通过了对伊朗制裁的法案。相比前几次制裁,这次制裁危及伊朗的经济命脉——石油出口。与此同时,欧盟在原则上同意了对伊朗进行制裁的方案,只是在制裁的时间框架上尚未敲定。如果欧美两大经济体联合对伊朗进行制裁,加上美国的亚洲盟友,那将对伊朗经济造成严重的损害。

  在美国及其盟友面前,伊朗凭什么以小搏大呢?不对称战争是伊朗的杀手锏,犹如电视画面所显示的,伊朗的小艇只是“骚扰”一下美国的大军舰而已,但是它可以通过水雷封锁霍尔木兹海峡。此外,伊朗的导弹不能攻击美国,但是却可以攻击波斯湾对岸的海湾国家,即便不能瘫痪对岸的产油国,也会造成国际石油市场的动荡。

  美国与伊朗两国实际已“骑虎难下”。奥巴马政府需要调整美国的对外战略,如果在大选之年发动一场对伊朗的战争显然是自掘坟墓,过去十年间,美国过于依赖权力中的暴力因素,而忽视了协商和威望的因素,致使美国形象大受折损。对伊朗而言,民族主义与神权政治是两张无法合一的皮,内贾德和哈梅内伊都意识到玩火的底线是不能“自焚”。然而,要让美国这个超级大国低下高贵的头颅并非易事,让伊朗这个具有数千年帝国历史传统的国家颜面扫地也很难。双方需要一个合适的台阶,终止这场“胆小鬼”的游戏。

中国适合担任调停者角色

  正当伊朗将波斯湾作为“人质”的时候,第五届“世界未来能源峰会”在阿联酋阿布扎比召开,探索发展可再生能源,创建一个更加公平合理的全球能源秩序,这对全球政治经济而言至关重要。

  从中短期来看,石油、天然气为代表的传统的不可再生能源依然是全球工业化的能源基础,任何工业国家以及正在工业化的国家都无法忽视本国的能源供给问题。

  当波斯湾地区波谲云诡的时候,中国需要一套基于本国利益基础上的战略,维护波斯湾地区的稳定。中国与波斯湾两岸的国家都有比较密切的经济贸易往来,尤其是能源合作,中国石油公司不仅在伊朗,也在沙特进行能源开发,因此,维护波斯湾地区的稳定符合中国的国家利益。

  在美伊斗法时,中国可以保持一种调解者的身份。这种角色最适合由中国担当。对俄罗斯而言,石油禁运及其石油价格飙升是有利于俄罗斯利益的,因为它也是一个依赖能源出口的国家;对欧盟而言,英、法、德等大国强烈要求制裁伊朗,回旋余地比较小;日本、韩国是美国的盟友,不得不加入制裁的阵营中。

  当伊朗与美国互不相让时,中国需要给它们双方体面地走向谈判桌的台阶,哪怕是一个不太损害双方面子的动议。在国际交往中,议程设定、危机管理也是大国外交能力的体现,是提升国家形象的有力跳板。从美国推迟美以军演、美伊频频隔空喊话来看,他们需要一个更加正式的沟通渠道,中国在这方面需要有所作为。20世纪初,老罗斯福曾为调节日俄战争而名利双收,今日之中国何乐不为?
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