Cold War Thinking Has America Confused as to Whether China Is a Friend or Foe

Published in Huanqiu
(China) on 30 January 2012
by Feng Qiaojie (link to originallink to original)
Translated from by Jeffrey King. Edited by Louis Standish.
Since U.S. President Barack Obama announced a new national defense strategy, many people have begun to feel a bit nervous. The new plan calls for a large scale reduction of U.S. armed forces and placing its new military focus on Asia. Moreover, the report specifically mentioned China a number of times. Some in the media have determined that China and Iran have been classified by the U.S. as combat targets for winning decisive battles. Commentary in the People’s Daily has pointed out that the U.S. should view China’s military strength rationally. Others have suggested that China is being overly sensitive when it comes to America’s new strategy and, as a result, China’s reactions have been excessively strong.

Each viewpoint has its merits. On this point, the author chooses not to pose his argument, but there is one point that cannot be denied: America’s new military strategy is full off strong remnants of “Cold War thinking.” What is Cold War thinking? Simply put, it is the fixed Cold War political ideology adopted by the U.S. during the post-WWII period when the world was polarized into two camps. Some of the main points of this thinking include the pursuit of absolute security and the inability or unwillingness to put oneself in another’s shoes to better understand their interests, feelings or safety concerns. It was also the time of “self-fulfilling prophecies” that created enemies and then strategic plans to combat those enemies. With this announcement of a new military strategy by the U.S., America’s Cold War thinking has been revealed to be clearer than ever.

First, the U.S. has made public its suspicion of China’s intent to modernize its military and its attempt to pursue its own absolute security. The report stated that in order for China’s military to avoid conflict in the Asian region, its military growth and intentions must be more transparent and clear. America’s suspicion of China’s intentions for military development clearly reveals its alerted stance against China’s rise. Also revealed is America’s stance on preventing China from becoming a leading force in the Asian region and America’s fear that an expansion of Chinese military force will threaten U.S. interests in Asia, especially its right to open shipping lanes. During the Cold War, National Security Council Report 68 (NSC-68), released in early 1950, analyzed the changes to the global order and concluded that the Soviet Union was the greatest threat to American security. In order to pursue security interests, the document proposed a series of military deployment suggestions including the development of a hydrogen bomb and the rapid development of conventional weapons. Afterward, this document became an outline for the policy of containment.

Second is the creation of an imaginary enemy and the strategic plans to deal with it. The report stated that some countries, such as China and Iran, have developed asymmetrical capabilities like anti-interventionist or regional obstruction capabilities. This creates a huge challenge to U.S. military projection capabilities. As a result, the U.S. wants to strengthen its ability to project itself. Obviously, the U.S. has imagined China and Iran to be its post-Cold War “enemies” and must take actions that will contain China’s ability to develop offshore anti-intervention capabilities as a means to ensure open waters. Regarding the origins of the Cold War, George Kennan’s 8,000-word cable is believed to have significantly impacted the Cold War. The cable analyzed all sorts of Soviet Union behavior, drawing the conclusion that the Soviet Union was the potential enemy of the U.S. and the West.

However, the times have changed. America’s current Cold War thinking has new expressions, one of which is its internal contradictions. For example, the U.S. has imagined China to be its “enemy,” yet in this new military strategy, the U.S. also recognizes that China’s rise in Asia has also had an effect on the American economy and national security. The two countries have strong common interests in protecting the peace and stability of East Asia and in establishing cooperative bilateral relations. Looking at America’s views toward U.S.-Sino relations, it can be surmised that the U.S. will not contain China like it did the Soviet Union. Instead, it will adopt a policy of both restraint and cooperation. The international order has developed into such a state that America is left with a sense of helplessness.


  美国总统奥巴马公布“新国防战略计划”以来,很多人因此而变得有点儿紧张。计划中,美国将大规模精简兵力,把军事重心转向亚太地区。此外,报告中还多次提到中国。有些外媒判断,中国和伊朗将被美国列为打赢一场主要战争的作战对象。《人民日报》评论指出美国应该理性看待中国的军事实力。还有分析指出,中国对美国新战略过于敏感了,反应也过于强烈。


  各说各有理,在此笔者不下论断,但有一点不容否认,那就是,美国新军事战略中一直透出很强的“冷战思维”遗风。什么是冷战思维?简单而言,就是特指战后世界格局两极化时期美国奉行冷战政策的意识定式,其内容中的重要部分包括追求绝对安全,不能或者不愿设身处地似地理解对方的利益、情感和安全担忧;以“自现预言”的方式制造敌人和对敌战略规划等等。从此次美国公布的新军事战略报告来看,美国冷战思维表露无遗。


  第一,美国公开质疑中国军事现代化的意图,企图追求自身的“绝对安全”。报告中提到,为避免在亚太地区造成摩擦,中国的军力增长和军事意图必须更加透明和清晰。对于中国发展军事意图的质疑显示出美国对于中国崛起的警示态度,防止中国成为亚太地区的领导力量,害怕中国军事力量的壮大威胁到美国在亚太地区的利益,尤其是其“自由通航权”。而在冷战时期,1950年初问世的美国国家安全委员会68 号文件( NSC68)分析了全球格局的变化,认为苏联将是美国安全的极大威胁,为追求其安全利益,文件提出了研制氢弹、迅速发展常规武器等一系列军事部署的建议,此文件后来成为遏制政策的纲领性文件。


  第二,制造“假想敌”及其对敌战略规划。报告中称一些地区国家“比如中国和伊朗”发展的“反介入和区域拒阻等非对称能力”对美国“军力投射能力”产生了重大挑战。因此,美国要加强对投射能力的投入。很明显,美国把中国和伊朗设想成了后冷战时期的“敌人”,并要采取措施遏制中国发展近海的反介入能力,以保证“通行自由”。而就冷战起源而言,乔治·凯南的八千字电报被认为是对冷战产生了重大的影响。电报中分析了苏联的种种行为,最后得出苏联是美国和西方“潜在敌人”的结论。


  不过,时代不同了,美国当前的冷战思维也有了新的表现,新表现就是它的内在矛盾。比如,美国尽管将中国设想为“敌人”,但在新军事战略中,它也承认中国在亚太的崛起给美国经济和安全等许多方面产生了潜在的影响,两国在维护东亚的和平与稳定、建立“合作性的双边关系”方面有着“很强的共同利益”,从美国对中美两国关系的这种判定中可以得出,美国不可能像对苏联一样遏制中国,而是采取了一种遏制与合作的双重态度,这也是国际局势发展到今天美国的无奈之举。
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