Washington Doesn’t Want Escalation With Tehran
Bills for declaring and fighting wars are very costly, usually halting a country’s development for long decades, and Tehran - after the war on Iraq – has only recently dealt with these expenses. Analyzing the prevailing strategic situation, the implications of the global economic crisis, the destabilizing elements in the region that are growing in the shadow of the “Arab Spring” revolutions and the American administration’s preoccupation with the upcoming presidential elections made me believe that the probability of escalation and confrontation is receding because of the following reasons:
Indicators and facts say that Washington doesn’t want escalation with Tehran right now. Maybe it is afraid to provoke Iran to the point that the country will be pushed to commit some act of insanity that will lead to catastrophe in the region. Or it is afraid of sinking into a new political or military swamp with the date of the American presidential elections approaching.
There is also the postponement of military exercises, which were to take place with Israel to test the shared defense system against Iranian missiles, with the American forces chief of staff sent to Tel Aviv for consultations.
The appeals by Obama and his defense secretary to Netanyahu urging him not to confront Iran, which were refused by Netanyahu and the radical right-wing that rules in Israel, are another indicator.
The American administration knows from its own experience with North Korea that the mere threat to hit Iran - even if its goal was confusion – will push Iran to the militarization of its nuclear program, which may lead to an arms race in the region.
Obama knows that any strike on Iran will close the Strait of Hormuz – followed by a rise in oil prices – and will inflame a new regional war, spreading radicalism and terrorism, as well as activating destabilizing elements in the region.
Israel is reading the regional and international situation from another point of view, which is its desire to launch attacks against Iran, who is allegedly threatening Israel’s existence. It believes that Tehran has reached the point of no return in the production of the nuclear warheads, so Israel says. The strike has to be launched before the American elections and that is what will jeopardize the American administration.
Israel will realize before it is too late that there is only one logical solution to the Iranian nuclear crisis, which is more security and the establishment of a region free from nuclear weapons in the Middle East, including Iran and Israel. It has to consider this idea within the context of the changing regional conditions.
After the outbreak of the “Arab Spring” revolutions, its damaged relations with Turkey and America’s decision to refrain from involvement in any new wars, Israel has found itself in a weaker position than at any time in the past.
If Iran accepted the idea of a Middle East free from weapons of mass destruction, Israeli society and public opinion would also be forced to accept this idea. That is why Israel will try to shuffle the cards and continue to build strong alliances against Iran.
Indicators and facts say that Washington doesn’t want escalation with Tehran right now. Maybe it is afraid to provoke Iran to the point that the country will be pushed to commit some act of insanity that will lead to catastrophe in the region. Or it is afraid of sinking into a new political or military swamp with the date of the American presidential elections approaching.
There is also the postponement of military exercises, which were to take place with Israel to test the shared defense system against Iranian missiles, with the American forces chief of staff sent to Tel Aviv for consultations.
The appeals by Obama and his defense secretary to Netanyahu urging him not to confront Iran, which were refused by Netanyahu and the radical right-wing that rules in Israel, are another indicator.
The American administration knows from its own experience with North Korea that the mere threat to hit Iran - even if its goal was confusion – will push Iran to the militarization of its nuclear program, which may lead to an arms race in the region.
Obama knows that any strike on Iran will close the Strait of Hormuz – followed by a rise in oil prices – and will inflame a new regional war, spreading radicalism and terrorism, as well as activating destabilizing elements in the region.
Israel is reading the regional and international situation from another point of view, which is its desire to launch attacks against Iran, who is allegedly threatening Israel’s existence. It believes that Tehran has reached the point of no return in the production of the nuclear warheads, so Israel says. The strike has to be launched before the American elections and that is what will jeopardize the American administration.
Israel will realize before it is too late that there is only one logical solution to the Iranian nuclear crisis, which is more security and the establishment of a region free from nuclear weapons in the Middle East, including Iran and Israel. It has to consider this idea within the context of the changing regional conditions.
After the outbreak of the “Arab Spring” revolutions, its damaged relations with Turkey and America’s decision to refrain from involvement in any new wars, Israel has found itself in a weaker position than at any time in the past.
If Iran accepted the idea of a Middle East free from weapons of mass destruction, Israeli society and public opinion would also be forced to accept this idea. That is why Israel will try to shuffle the cards and continue to build strong alliances against Iran.